My Dice Setting
Table Throw Position: Center End of Table (left of center by one tray) (any end and I'm right-handed)
Throw Tendency: Axis roll landing about 6-8 inches from the end of the table (away from chips)
Dice Set:
Hand Set:
I've tried different hand positions but the one that feels smoothest is the one shown in the image above. I squeeze the dice to ensure that they are aligned together and when extending my arm I release the grip and get a very concise axis toss. I have four fingers on the dice in the image. Thumb closest, middle finger is on the rear end split between the two dice and the other two fingers you can see.
The numbers rolled are (2, 4 (hard and soft), 5, 6 (more hard six rolls than soft), 8 (more hard eight rolls than soft), 9, 10 (equal distribution on 5/5 and 6/4), 11). The numbers that do not come up and (rarely) are the 3, 7 and 12 (although out of the 3 dice that don't show this one shows up more often than the other two). I've had many long rolls using this setup and it is probably due to my throwing motion and positioning/release.
My advice to anyone is to use the release that feels most comfortable to you and try different dice combinations to discover what works best. I like this distribution for Iron Cross (5,6,8,field) strategy. I press 5 one unit on hits, 6 and 8 are both pressed together on any hit to keep them even on wagers. My ideal strat is 15/18/18 on 5/6/8 and 10 field. When I get to 30/30/30 I change the field wager to 15. When I get to 60/60/60 I change it to 25.
On winning days:
My low full session win is $300.
My average full session win is $600.
My high full session win is $2,850.
On losing days:
My low full session loss is EVEN.
My average full session loss is $220.
My high full session loss is $1,400.
Good Luck.
I hate to say it, but im highly skeptical.
Quote: cwazyAre you ahead or behind over the 400 hours in the casino?
Way ahead. +14k now.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't know why you wouldn't be in the casino 10 hour's a day evryday betting much larger amounts if you are up a significant amount over 400 hours. That's enough to convince myself I have ano edge or a horseshoe permanently rammed up my ass.
I hate to say it, but im highly skeptical.
I work two jobs (a highly paid IT Professional) on one hand and I own and operate my own sports forecasting company. Between the two I have to squeeze hours between evenings and weekends. I will actually be playing less during football season because I have a lot of programming to oversee.
I don't live right near the casino and it's a bit of a drive for me (from home) and less (from work). I can understand your point of view (since you are from Las Vegas) and probably have casinos within walking distance in some parts. I like playing (for fun) and if I win then great! However, I would never put gambling in front of work and family life. Also, wagering significantly is more stressful. I like to risk low amounts and work them up through presses. If I lose $1k - $1.5k on a table and it's made up entirely of winnings I don't get as upset.
Some people spend hours watching television, socially posting (facebook, twitter, etc.), gaming online or name any 5 other things that are popular. I spend my entertainment hours programming, reading, visiting live casinos, food critiquing new or high quality restaurants and travelling. Craps is just entertainment. Nothing more.
I'm still waiting for the day to see 10,000+ throws on video after showing they're fair dice or having a credible person vouch. Something tells me it'll never happen.
Quote: RomesMake a video of you throwing 1,000 throws... That's not a large sampling size, but when you're statistically average/down at this point it should be enough of a point to suffice.
I'm still waiting for the day to see 10,000+ throws on video after showing they're fair dice or having a credible person vouch. Something tells me it'll never happen.
I don't really need to do that. I can actually get a mailed copy of wins and losses. I'm going to request one after July 1. I'd be more than happy to share it.
Quote: RomesMake a video of you throwing 1,000 throws... That's not a large sampling size, but when you're statistically average/down at this point it should be enough of a point to suffice.
I'm still waiting for the day to see 10,000+ throws on video after showing they're fair dice or having a credible person vouch. Something tells me it'll never happen.
The shorter way is just to have a decent camera film the dice up close. If Dice Control really works there has to be some visible difference of how the dice move. If you can't beat the randomization from striking the pyramids even on a single throw no need to do a 1000 trials.
Yes, so when you played craps once, or well never, and hit a $10k jackpot on slots... I'll see your +$10k and know it was from dice control...Quote: JoelDezeI don't really need to do that. I can actually get a mailed copy of wins and losses. I'm going to request one after July 1. I'd be more than happy to share it.
Not that t would say craps but it's a start of it did
Why is it that all the guys who have the ability to defy the odds gambling never want to take full advantage of the situation? DI's and system bettors who claim incredible abilities are betting red and green chips, teaching classes and selling their systems.Quote: JoelDezeI work two jobs (a highly paid IT Professional) on one hand and I own and operate my own sports forecasting company. Between the two I have to squeeze hours between evenings and weekends. I will actually be playing less during football season because I have a lot of programming to oversee.
I don't live right near the casino and it's a bit of a drive for me (from home) and less (from work). I can understand your point of view (since you are from Las Vegas) and probably have casinos within walking distance in some parts. I like playing (for fun) and if I win then great! However, I would never put gambling in front of work and family life. Also, wagering significantly is more stressful. I like to risk low amounts and work them up through presses. If I lose $1k - $1.5k on a table and it's made up entirely of winnings I don't get as upset.
Some people spend hours watching television, socially posting (facebook, twitter, etc.), gaming online or name any 5 other things that are popular. I spend my entertainment hours programming, reading, visiting live casinos, food critiquing new or high quality restaurants and travelling. Craps is just entertainment. Nothing more.
I'm not sure how much you make at your job but if you truly had an advantage at caps you could make at least 1k per hour. If you could prove you had an advantage playing caps there would be plenty of people with huge bankrolls willing to bankroll you so that would eliminate any stress or risk. You could still do it in your spare time. That's why it's important to show Video of your abilities.
There's no legitament excuses one could come up with not to aquire proof. Obviously If you had some magical system or skill I wouldn't just post it up publicly. I would contact someone who's willing to sign a NDA and make a deal.
Quote: AxelWolfWhy is it that all the guys who have the ability to defy the odds gambling never want to take full advantage of the situation? DI's and system bettors who claim incredible abilities are betting red and green chips, teaching classes and selling their systems.
I'm not sure how much you make at your job but if you truly had an advantage at caps you could make at least 1k per hour. If you could prove you had an advantage playing caps there would be plenty of people with huge bankrolls willing to bankroll you so that would eliminate any stress or risk. You could still do it in your spare time. That's why it's important to show Video of your abilities.
There's no legitament excuses one could come up with not to aquire proof. Obviously If you had some magical system or skill I wouldn't just post it up publicly. I would contact someone who's willing to sign a NDA and make a deal.
Because I'm a math guy. Romes provided a more common observance to the situation. It is "highly probable" that I'm simply on an extended lucky streak. I also believe that I've grown to understand some of the players that play there. My winning has less to do with my dice rolls and more to do with my patience. I win quite a bit on other players as well.
The burden of proof really is in the corner of people that believe science and math solve everything. Show me any system where someone has calculated 1,000,000 dice rolls from one player rolling the dice with a specific dice setting, playing from the same spot on a table. If you honestly believe the rolls would match up to the net probability events of any standard random dice rolls test using 1,000,000 random rolls you would be quite mistaken.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty obtuse.
Rome's has been discredited after his quit while you're ahead thread. :-)Quote: JoelDezeBecause I'm a math guy. Romes provided a more common observance to the situation. It is "highly probable" that I'm simply on an extended lucky streak. I also believe that I've grown to understand some of the players that play there. My winning has less to do with my dice rolls and more to do with my patience. I win quite a bit on other players as well.
The burden of proof really is in the corner of people that believe science and math solve everything. Show me any system where someone has calculated 1,000,000 dice rolls from one player rolling the dice with a specific dice setting, playing from the same spot on a table. If you honestly believe the rolls would match up to the net probability events of any standard random dice rolls test using 1,000,000 random rolls you would be quite mistaken.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty obtuse.
As long as you realize your just getting lucky.
Quote: JoelDeze
The burden of proof really is in the corner of people that believe science and math solve everything.
Ok, here you go: http://kapitaniak.kdm.p.lodz.pl/papers/2012/Kapitaniak_Strzalko_Grabski_Kapitaniak.pdf
Quote: JoelDezeWay ahead. +14k now.
I stick pretty close to 50 bets an hour at Craps, and I flat bet ... the same bet with the same odds. If you can make any kind of similar statement, you can get a handle quickly on how much you might owe to luck. Since you do a progression, you'd have to figure out what your average line bet is, I think.
Look, I'm no math whiz but I am of the opinion everybody with half a brain should have an idea how his results compare to his theoretical. And after some encouragement here I now feel it's not much of a step to use SD either.
see https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ "The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet ... and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size.* " This is not high math.
For myself, for 400 hours, at 5X odds, say, lemme see
The standard deviation for free odds you generally add approx 0.8, so for 5x that's 5.8 ; chart says 5.82 to two decimal points
400 hours is going to be 20,000 bets
btw it'd take me years to see 400 hours at a craps table
square root of that action = 141.42
EV of that action
20000*[244/495]-20000*[251/495]=-282.828 [units]
5.82 times 141.42 = 823.0644 units for a standard deviation [units]
at $10 that's going to be approx $8200 - 2283 for one SD positive side
$16,400 -2283 for 2 SDs = approx $14,000
So for a reasonable lucky guy betting like I bet, for that many hours, he could be ahead about where you are [or mirror bad luck would have him down over 18k]. 2 SDs is remarkable but not out on the fringe of the bell curve. And you do progressive betting, you have to figure you are within 2 SDs.
No one can tell by your numbers if your dice setting is having an effect, assuming there is any similarity at all to the example.
*again, not sure how to handle progressive betting, but I think using average bet might work
Then again, there is no proof that god or heaven exists, but that hasn't stopped its varying proponents from slaughtering each other over the centuries.
Bottom line: play how you want, but don't come here claiming you have an advantage unless it can be proven / quantified.
End of story.
Such a schnorrer (two-bit piker). Why not 10k or 20k an hour? We're all big boys here.Quote: AxelWolfIf you truly had an advantage at caps you could make at least 1k per hour.
If not, why not?
Can you imagine Kerry Packer (R.I.P.) rolling dem bones, betting $250K every roll?
I actually feel sorry for you, you are missing some very good times on the
table by believing what you believe.
However unlike you, I wont dictate that you prove to me the futility
of your play, I will just assume its a fact.
I do have to give you credit for imagination.
Your comments I understand, but Axel is way to smart to believe
the nonsense you develop. You are gong to go on for years
with the assumption that there is no area between complete dice
control that you and many others allow to take all the space
between your ears, and dice influence. They are not nearly the
same. That is like saying a car will either stand still or go
75 miles an hour.
Your lack of understanding baffles me
dicesetter
But this is America, where we are free to believe whatever we want, no matter how outlandish it may be.
Belief with proof equals faith.
Quote: JoelDezeThe numbers rolled are 6 (more hard six rolls than soft), 8 (more hard eight rolls than soft).
I was beginning to believe you, and just figured you were getting lucky. But to actually state that over 400 hours of rolling you got more hard 6's than soft 6's, AND more hard 8's than soft 8's just proves you are making this all up. What is your motivation for spinning these tales?
You do know that a random roller will get 4 times as many soft 6's as hard 6's? Same for 8's.
You got caught.....
I think he has some kind of touting website. I don't think he touts craps on the site ( YET). However from what I understand it's more of a voodoo, astrology, positive attitude, spiritual, mumbo-jumbo type of thing. If you are someone touting anything involving that type of stuff you have to keep up apperiances. If it's works on one thing, it has to work on everything. IE I'm just at winner at everything I play because of my voodoo system. IGTO so I can't elaborate further.Quote: SOOPOOI was beginning to believe you, and just figured you were getting lucky. But to actually state that over 400 hours of rolling you got more hard 6's than soft 6's, AND more hard 8's than soft 8's just proves you are making this all up. What is your motivation for spinning these tales?
You do know that a random roller will get 4 times as many soft 6's as hard 6's? Same for 8's.
You got caught.....
I honestly don't care one way or the other if anyone believes me. I mentioned time and again that "anyone" can join me for a session or two and see for themselves. I also mentioned that I would request my wins/losses next month.
Since being informed about self/promotion rules I haven't once promoted my site regarding football sports forecasting.
Craps is an entertaining hobby/diversion. It will always be gambling though. I make my money working two jobs, investing in stocks and investing in football after week 8 each season.
If anyone is interested in how to invest in stocks and would like a few pointers on how to use the MACD and RSI indicators, along with a zero amount watch list, I'm happy to teach and help others understand the market. I used to work for Schwab for almost 6 years and learned quite a bit from 11 different portfolio managers.
I love helping others and believe that every one we meet become our students and our teachers as we journey through life. I also believe that when a person dies, all of the knowledge they never shared with others dies too. I'm not one of those guys.
Have a great day everyone!
The best way to promote your site is to claim your not promoting your site.Quote: JoelDezeAnother winning session. +$400. Was down -$350 on my first session and then made it up on my second. A lot of people just give up when they go down a little. I don't.
I honestly don't care one way or the other if anyone believes me. I mentioned time and again that "anyone" can join me for a session or two and see for themselves. I also mentioned that I would request my wins/losses next month.
Since being informed about self/promotion rules I haven't once promoted my site regarding football sports forecasting.
Craps is an entertaining hobby/diversion. It will always be gambling though. I make my money working two jobs, investing in stocks and investing in football after week 8 each season.
If anyone is interested in how to invest in stocks and would like a few pointers on how to use the MACD and RSI indicators, along with a zero amount watch list, I'm happy to teach and help others understand the market. I used to work for Schwab for almost 6 years and learned quite a bit from 11 different portfolio managers.
I love helping others and believe that every one we meet become our students and our teachers as we journey through life. I also believe that when a person dies, all of the knowledge they never shared with others dies too. I'm not one of those guys.
Have a great day everyone!
Quote: JoelDezeAI honestly don't care one way or the other if anyone believes me.
I honestly don't believe you, either.
Hmm, maybe it's time for a poll?
LOLQuote: MrVI honestly don't believe you, either.
Hmm, maybe it's time for a poll?
Quote: DiscreteMaths2Ok, here you go: http://kapitaniak.kdm.p.lodz.pl/papers/2012/Kapitaniak_Strzalko_Grabski_Kapitaniak.pdf
I just skipped to the conclusion on this, but this paper says that dice setting can be effective, by placing the numbers that one wants to come up facing downward. I have always believed that DI is BS, and I thought that all of the hardcore math guys on here agreed.
So which is it?
You have to admit, being a swami helps in that profession.
Quote: cwazyI just skipped to the conclusion on this, but this paper says that dice setting can be effective, by placing the numbers that one wants to come up facing downward. I have always believed that DI is BS, and I thought that all of the hardcore math guys on here agreed.
So which is it?
Yes, I read the entire paper and the summary conclusion was:
"To summarize, the die throw is neither random nor chaotic. From the point of view of dynamical system theory, the result of the die throw is predictable."
However, no one has performed any tests on humans as far as physical determinism when throwing multiple dice. The practicality of his experiments were more machine based. But, based on the type of experimentation he performed I would have to concur with his conclusion that any die throw is predictable.
Many of the naysayers believe everything is random. They can continue being obtuse and climb back into the safe small confines of their boxes, eat their paradigm designed Wheaties, and tell tales of how they were disagreeable for the sake of disagreeing. Their brains bounce across the table randomly like grazing bifurcation characteristics for discontinuous systems.
This happened at PARX last week.
A new shooter, first left of the stick got the dice, and I opened with a DP bet. A player next to me warned, "Don't bet against this guy. He's good." So, I nodded and opened with my DP bet.
After he made his second point, I took the friendly advice and started betting with the shooter.
"I told you."
His two buddies were betting the hard ways and betting across. Betting black and pressing, just as the shooter was.
The dice came around to this shooter four times, and he always had a good roll. It was a packed table and people were passing the dice, either not wanting to follow his performance, or to get the dice to him sooner.
He always set the dice 6-4, and hit tens and nines with unusual consistency.
His buddies always passed the dice and they always bet the hard ten any time he rolled a ten. "He always hits the hard ten after he rolls a soft ten."
That, I couldn't buy.
"Ten Hard"
"See?"
I must have heard that at least five times.
I'm still not sold on dice setting, but if I ever see this shooter again, I will bet with him on every roll. Hard Ten too.
If I see Joel in RI or CT, I hope to end up betting with him as well.
But I will probably open with a DP bet.
Predicatble for sure. One die is going to be from 1 to 6. Two dice are going to be from 2 to 12.Quote: JoelDeze"To summarize, the die throw is neither random nor chaotic. From the point of view of dynamical system theory, the result of the die throw is predictable."
Quote: lilredroosterPeople in this thread and many others are making the point that if a player claims he has advantage then why isn't he making a ton of money? (Never mind dice control; I don't believe it's a realistic way to gain an edge.) I don't think it's a good point. In sports betting for example undoubtedly there are some who make money betting $200 per game and some who make money betting $2,000 per game. Because the bettor who never increased beyond $200 per game that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge. It takes a certain kind of stuff to bet really big and not every player has that stuff. Some who make only small or medium size bets might feel that they would lose enjoyment of the game because the pressure increases with really big bets. There are some blackjack APs who have a top bet of $250 and some who have a top bet of $2,000. Because the AP never bets more than $250 that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge.
While true, anyone who claims to have an advantage but who doesn't make a substantial part of their income using it is generally full of scrap.
Quote: lilredroosterPeople in this thread and many others are making the point that if a player claims he has advantage then why isn't he making a ton of money? (Never mind dice control; I don't believe it's a realistic way to gain an edge.) I don't think it's a good point. In sports betting for example undoubtedly there are some who make money betting $200 per game and some who make money betting $2,000 per game. Because the bettor who never increased beyond $200 per game that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge. It takes a certain kind of stuff to bet really big and not every player has that stuff. Some who make only small or medium size bets might feel that they would lose enjoyment of the game because the pressure increases with really big bets. There are some blackjack APs who have a top bet of $250 and some who have a top bet of $2,000. Because the AP never bets more than $250 that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge.
The reason why I don't wager more than what I allocate per session is because I consider Craps gambling, not investing. I could win or I could lose. There's no probability tables of any kind that state I will win 70% or more playing craps per session. That's because it's a -EV game. Theoretically, over time, I should lose all of my winnings and achieve a negative result. The fact that I'm up on a large positive note just annoys most of the people that read about it. They don't understand how it is possible nor would they be able to comprehend anything that contradicts what exists on paper.
Luckily, the game of craps isn't played on paper. If you play live, it's at a table. The table is surrounded by people. Each person rolls the dice uniquely. I spend my gambling money on people that generally roll the dice well. There are a minimum of 12 people at the casino I go to where I know enough about the roller to understand if he or she generally rolls well. Likewise, they know that I roll the dice well. I don't toss the dice 3 or 4 times and 7-out. I have lengthy rolls. Others I trust more often than not, do the same. For the other people rolling, I don't risk a single $1. They have to prove to me they can hit at least one or two set points and extend a roll. If they do, I limit my risk to approx. $24-$34 dollars to start. I risk a lot more on people that I know.
I've been at a table with these same folks and seen a full round of medium to hot rolls.
I rolled a "9" a total of 11 times on a 50+ roll. I never once hit a 7 until I finally had a seven out. I didn't hit a single 7 on any of the come out rolls. So, how do you explain someone hitting a 9, 11 times and a 7 only 1 time in 50+ rolls. Does that match up to a standard probability test? No, it does not. The dealer kept telling the guy next to him that this is going to be a long roll because every time he's not seen a 7 come up at all, (not even on the come out roll) the rolls have been very long. So, how does this dealer know this? Because he's seen it before.
Why won't I wager max money on the game of craps? Because it's still gambling. I prefer to wager my $25k-$50k a week on football where I have an extremely high probability of success/investing. Until then, craps is a fun game. I still keep a maximum bank roll of $2,000 for an entire session playing craps. That's my daily risk. $2k per day when I go.
I'm not claiming super powers or even super luck. The reality is that I'm winning and I'm happy. Anyone who questions this can come play a couple of sessions with me and find out for themselves. Until then, the invitation is always open and if you choose to not see it first hand then what are you complaining about?
EDIT: And, lilredrooster, I appreciate the post mate. The last paragraph and much of my explanation was not directed at you. I quoted you because you made a few good points.
Legitimate card counters don't claim to win just about every time they play. They know they can go on long losing streaks and even lose for the year. They don't get a constant heat free max bets with an advantage 24/7 365 at hundreds of casino.Quote: lilredroosterPeople in this thread and many others are making the point that if a player claims he has advantage then why isn't he making a ton of money? (Never mind dice control; I don't believe it's a realistic way to gain an edge.) I don't think it's a good point. In sports betting for example undoubtedly there are some who make money betting $200 per game and some who make money betting $2,000 per game. Because the bettor who never increased beyond $200 per game that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge. It takes a certain kind of stuff to bet really big and not every player has that stuff. Some who make only small or medium size bets might feel that they would lose enjoyment of the game because the pressure increases with really big bets. There are some blackjack APs who have a top bet of $250 and some who have a top bet of $2,000. Because the AP never bets more than $250 that doesn't mean that he doesn't have an edge.
Craps player's can bet all day and get closer to the long run with Max bet each roll.
BJ players are likely to get backed off and even 86ed or worst.
Oftentimes craps players get welcome with open arms and they get the red carpet treatment, especially if they are betting enough.
Blackjack players know they have a small advantage. Most of the so called DI's and system bettors make it seem as if they have a significant advantage, yet they can never tell you what their advantage is or how they actually achieve it.
With sports get a limited amount of bets per year. Anyone who's seriously confident they have an advantage and they win every year they too should be betting as much as their BR can handle.
Quote: JoelDezeI'm not claiming super powers or even super luck
I would call this superpowers.Quote: JoelDeze
Luckily, the game of craps isn't played on paper. If you play live, it's at a table. The table is surrounded by people. Each person rolls the dice uniquely. I spend my gambling money on people that generally roll the dice well. There are a minimum of 12 people at the casino I go to where I know enough about the roller to understand if he or she generally rolls well. Likewise, they know that I roll the dice well. I don't toss the dice 3 or 4 times and 7-out. I have lengthy rolls. Others I trust more often than not, do the same. For the other people rolling, I don't risk a single $1. They have to prove to me they can hit at least one or two set points and extend a roll. If they do, I limit my risk to approx. $24-$34 dollars to start. I risk a lot more on people that I know.
I've been at a table with these same folks and seen a full round of medium to hot rolls.
Quote: AxelWolf
With sports get a limited amount of bets per year. Anyone who's seriously confident they have an advantage and they win every year they too should be betting as much as their BR can handle.
This statement assumes that the only reason to bet sports is to make as much money as possible. That is not the case. Many regard it as a game and playing the game well means coming out ahead. The actual dollar amount of the wins and/or losses are just a means of keeping score for many. A person who has a professional career may prefer spending the majority of his time furthering his career rather than sweating game results.Please don't feed the trolls
Quote: AxelWolf
Craps player's can bet all day and get closer to the long run with Max bet each roll.
I have yet to place a max bet on "any" roll. The highest starting wager I've placed on anything has been $240 risk on the 6 and $240 risk on the 8 at one time. I've also done a few $100 world and a few $120 horn bets. I only do the latter if I'm up pretty big. The more I wager the more stressed I become and I tend to play worse.
I tend to (when I roll the dice) risk the following:
$25 pass line and $25 world bet.
Set Point of 4 or 10 I wager 2x odds.
Set Point of 5 or 9 I wager 4x odds.
Set Point of 6 or 8 I wager max odds.
If I hit a 5,6 or 8, I play a medium risk cross. I do $125 PL odds on (5x) and place $120 on the other two numbers. I then place $50 in the field. If I hit one of the place numbers I press in $30 increments.
If I have a 4,9,10 as a set point, I do 2x odds on the PL and do $81 or $86 across. I then play $5 horn-high wagers, alternating all four numbers. I press 1 or 2 units on numbers I hit.
Quote: AxelWolf
Oftentimes craps players get welcome with open arms and they get the red carpet treatment, especially if they are betting enough.
The Pit Bosses and dealers that know me treat me well. They are friendly and considerate. They also know I treat the dealers well and that I tip often. I'm polite and friendly and never get upset or too excited (when losing or winning). They know that I will risk up to $2k but that's hardly enough to roll out the red carpet.
Quote: AxelWolf
With sports get a limited amount of bets per year. Anyone who's seriously confident they have an advantage and they win every year they too should be betting as much as their BR can handle.
And, you would lose a considerable amount of money doing that AxelWolf. I would not recommend doing that at all. There are many reasons but let me start with the following:
1. Sports Books (there are under 10 real sports books that own and operate multiple establishments). If you wager too much and win too often they will set limits on almost everything you wager on. It will essentially become too difficult to wager. Also, you can't send messenger bettors to Vegas to wager on your behalf. That's illegal. Bill 443 (explained in my blog) helps alleviate part of this stress but as an entity, you can also receive limits. It's no different.
2. There is an incredible amount of math and ANA (AI) built around really good sports probability systems. With my system for instance, I know for a fact that the data is extremely confident by Week 7 or 8 every year of football season. Why risk your bank roll on weeks 1 through 6 on a limited amount of data? There are times throughout those early weeks where the books set the lines in favor of people that wager and I take advantage of those times. But, the smart person investing any large amount of money waits for the right opportunity.
3. You have starting capital but you also have CAR (Capital at Risk). No one risks 100% of their starting Capital wagering. Even in my own model I start at around 40% and increase that by 5-10% per week until I cap at 70%. However, I have never been able to fully wager 70% of my CAR at the end of the season due to limits being set. Try wagering $10k+ at any sports book once they know you. They will say, "Sorry, we can only accept $3,500." If you were going to risk $30k on one game and you divide it among the different books you might find that they accept $3.5k, $2k, $800, $1.3k, $5k, etc. So, you never get to risk the desired amount.
A lot of it has to do with how much early money they've taken in on the games. A lot of people get their action in earlier than I can. I tend to get to Vegas on Friday and that means a lot of running around. If I were a local, I'm sure I could get in a lot of extra action. I hate missing out on Thursday/Friday action but I live a long way from Vegas. The redeye is brutal!
I could explain a lot more in detail but this is a very bare bones summary.
I have an example for you. The tickets below (I take pictures of all wagers for tax purposes) was the first week we went to Vegas. We were trying to risk $8k on this game and managed to only get $4k in. They didn't know us very well and after two books limited us to $800 per, we kept the remainder wagers even at $800 per. It's also very difficult to get around and pretty tiring unless you are young. I'm not. Also, if you aren't local, the running around takes a lot of getting used to.
