DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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July 5th, 2011 at 12:16:22 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Is it still at the Wynn?

I haven't been back to Vegas since then.

At the time, I hadn't heard of it, so I asked if I could take a picture of the layout. The pit poss said no, because the table was being used.

Of the 15 or so craps tables in that pit, it was the only one that had it. As it happened, on a weekday afternoon, it was also the only table open (besides the one private table with a whale playing).

The pit boss did say I should check at T.I. and maybe they have one not in use for a photo. I never got there.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
stompi
Joined: Jan 17, 2011
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August 18th, 2011 at 9:55:59 PM permalink
Yes all tables at Winn and Encore has this bet
I hit them at last January, $5 each on low, high, and all turned into a lot of $
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 19th, 2011 at 5:32:11 AM permalink
Quote: sjoens

I'm interested in the true odds on a new bet I saw at Treasure Island this last week. I have not seen it at other casinos.


It used to be a prime reason to forgo the 20x odds and great beer at Main Street Station and instead accept the 10x odds and good beer at Sams Town. Some craps players know the math and the reasoning involved but they simply enjoy the more wild or exotic bets such as the Fire Bet or the All Tall/All Small etc. offerings.

Its a lure the casino dangles and it appeals to some players. For those who enjoy a more upscale atmosphere than the Boulder Strip, its good to know that these exotic bets are available elsewhere. Most people choose hotels based on a variety of factors including Food, Drink, etc., but spousal preference seems to be a primary factor also. So knowing that the bet is now more widely available will surely be of value.

It still remains a gimmick and a bet that is far outside the "Basic Strategy" and 0.85 percent house edge stuff that the mathematically inclined would recommend, but as a dealer once said about some side bet "Its only a buck and your wife will complain all night long if you don't bet on it and it hits".
Alan
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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August 19th, 2011 at 5:47:52 AM permalink
I'm interested in the true odds too. I don't think 35:1 payout is a good deal for the player.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 19th, 2011 at 6:15:51 AM permalink
Quote: Alan

I'm interested in the true odds too. I don't think 35:1 payout is a good deal for the player.



I'm taking the liberty of reproducing a segment of the Wizard's table at the WOO site here:

The Small bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 before rolling a seven. The Tall bet wins if the shooter rolls an 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before rolling a seven. A win pays 34 to 1, or 35 for 1. The odds on both bets are the same: a house edge of 7.76%.

Event ...Pays.....Probability......Return
Win.....34.........0.026354.......0.896033
Loss.....-1.........0.973646.......-0.973646
Total................ 1.................-0.077614

The All bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before rolling a seven: pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1, a house edge of 7.99%.

Event Pays Probability Return
Win 174 0.005258 0.91484
Loss -1 0.994742 -0.994742
Total 1 -0.079903

.............................................End of edited snippet.................................................


Now the important point is how does this house edge rank with other bets available in the casino and most particularly with other bets available at the craps table.

First, lets round all those decimal places and just say its "about 8 percent house edge" on these sidebets.
Okay. Its what? 5.26 percent in the Field. Its darn near 17 percent if you are on Big Red. So how bad is 8 percent compared to the PassLine of 1.414 percent and a PassLineWithOdds of 0.85 percent house edge?

Yipes. The math beats the hell out me. Place Bets are better than these side bets. Line bet are certainly better than these side bets.
Then of course the payoff is a alot better on the side bet, if it hits.

If Basic Strategy is to make a line bet sufficient to have most of your money be on the soon-to-be-made OddsBet, then this SideBet stuff sure is a departure. Most side bets tend to be modest amounts and are sort of designed to be impulse bets. You got a one dollar chip in your hand, you can put in your rack or you can put it on the side bet: many people opt for side bet. Dealers might prefer you opt for "toke" and CWs certainly prefer it be "toke" but the house wants you to opt for the Side Bet. That's the business they are in.

Is it "right"? Darned if I know!!
Everyone says avoid the prop bets that the stick man keeps pushing and those range from 11 percent to 17 percent house edge.
So how bad is 8 percent?
Some players refuse to Place the 5 or 9 because the house edge is 4.0 percent.
Most players refuse to Place the 4 or 10 because the house edge is darn near 7 percent.

"Should" a player be doing these somewhat exotic side bets?
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 19th, 2011 at 8:18:07 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

"Should" a player be doing these somewhat exotic side bets?

"Should"?

Let's not forget that these are also called "Sucker bets".

Of course, the biggest sucker bet is slot machines, yet that's where the majority of the players are.

Could it be that people who say 'yes' to the "should" question, are people that like the potential big payoff of a slot machine, but also like playing table games?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 19th, 2011 at 9:07:12 AM permalink
>Let's not forget that these are also called "Sucker bets".
Yes, and once a stickchick actually called out "Sucker Bets, S and M bets, B and D bets"...

>Of course, the biggest sucker bet is slot machines, yet that's where the majority of the players are.
Yes and as I understand the math most slot machines are going to be better for the player than the All/Small/Tall side bet at craps.
If I recall the 2010 figures, a Strip penny slot had a casino Win Rate of 12.5 percent, A dollar machine had a casino win rate of 6.6 percent and a 25.00 machine had a casino win rate of 2.92 percent. So with all these blackjack and craps side bets... are the casinos really trying to ensnare the would-be Sharpies?

> are people that like the potential big payoff of a slot machine, but also like playing table games?
The best of both worlds. Unfortunately, that's rarely possible.
CasinoObserver909
Joined: Sep 29, 2011
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September 29th, 2011 at 6:28:37 AM permalink
The game can beat once the 2,3 or 11, and 12 are rolled. You lay the 4,5,6,8,9,10. Guarrantee win. Either play the Small or Tall for an easy way. You only have to roll a 2,3 or 11,12. The All bet is harder. You need to roll 2,3,11,12. Either way, once you can pass these nunbers you lay against the other numbers to protect against the seven.
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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September 29th, 2011 at 5:16:29 PM permalink
Interesting premise. I wonder if we could embark on a hedging strategy...
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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September 29th, 2011 at 5:31:37 PM permalink
Will they let you place the small or tall bet after the 2,3,11, and/or 12 have rolled?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

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