The mathematics of Real World Craps?

Okay. Several different concepts in one thread here. Sorry about that but I'd like to discuss "a" real world craps betting system. Perhaps its similar to yours, perhaps not. I'd like to know the math related to a certain betting style and a certain time at table rather than a per roll basis.

Here is what the style of play is:

One PassLine bet with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Two ComeBets with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Place the Inside Numbers and leave up for FIVE rolls, using any interim place bet winnings to press that placebet. I believe it would be customary that any such place bets would be moved to the "sister number" so as to avoid placing the point number, but its up to the math whizzes to figure out if they want to handle such things or not.

What is a house edge for something like this? Its clear that there is a certain expectation of winning some of those place bets, but the money will be pressed and will not be taken as "winnings".

Is this appreciably different from considering just the textbook house edge? If I resolve to never remove the odds and to always press any winning place bets unless five rolls have gone by, does it make any difference?

When playing the passline, why would you want to make a come bet, because the advantage to both bets (pass and come) is that the 7 is a winner initially. So on your come bet, your advantage becomes the disadvantage because it'll lose your passline+odds bet.

Quote: FleaStiff

Okay. Several different concepts in one thread here. Sorry about that but I'd like to discuss "a" real world craps betting system. Perhaps its similar to yours, perhaps not. I'd like to know the math related to a certain betting style and a certain time at table rather than a per roll basis.

Here is what the style of play is:

One PassLine bet with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Two ComeBets with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Place the Inside Numbers and leave up for FIVE rolls, using any interim place bet winnings to press that placebet. I believe it would be customary that any such place bets would be moved to the "sister number" so as to avoid placing the point number, but its up to the math whizzes to figure out if they want to handle such things or not.

What is a house edge for something like this? Its clear that there is a certain expectation of winning some of those place bets, but the money will be pressed and will not be taken as "winnings".

the math would wear me out and probably be wrong [g], but I would expect the amount you are betting on your place bets to work on your bankroll eventually; hopefully you have some good wins before that.

Quote:

Is this appreciably different from considering just the textbook house edge? If I resolve to never remove the odds and to always press any winning place bets unless five rolls have gone by, does it make any difference?

anytime your system limits your betting, it preserves your bankroll in theory. Otherwise, it is pure superstition to think that some event is now "due" or whatever. But you knew that, right?

Quote: TIMSPEED

When playing the passline, why would you want to make a come bet, because the advantage to both bets (pass and come) is that the 7 is a winner initially. So on your come bet, your advantage becomes the disadvantage because it'll lose your passline+odds bet.

It is a temporary hedge, but more often than not becomes a point to make. I asked the WoO here once about this and might try to find that; essentially he feels the hedging is a non-factor because it is in effect only on the first roll and then becomes an independent action. In the long run your results should be the same if you made all those bets in series or in parallel action. The effect of the 7-out on all those multiple bets that typically start riding simultaneously is devastating to a guy's morale though.

Quote: FleaStiff

Okay. Several different concepts in one thread here. Sorry about that but I'd like to discuss "a" real world craps betting system. Perhaps its similar to yours, perhaps not. I'd like to know the math related to a certain betting style and a certain time at table rather than a per roll basis.

Whatever strategy I come up with I like to code up in "WinCraps". It can figure out the house edge, and it also helps you to clearly define your strategy. There are some things that are not so well defined in your specification. What happens after the five rolls? When do put the place numbers back up? But if you code it up yourself, you can specify all this.

The weakest part of your strategy, on the face of it, is placing the 5 and 9, which has a high house edge.

Let us consider a ten dollar table.

Its going to be 30.00 each for the PassLine and ComeBets... so that is 90.00 "invested".

Its going to be 44.00 Inside for the 5, 6, 8, 9 Place Bets.

Worst case would then be: $134.00 "invested" only to have no interim hits and to then have a Seven-Out that wipes away my entire "investment".

Best case would be that those place bets hit and be pressed higher and higher so that after my mandated Five Rolls, every successful roll after that means higher money on those Inside Numbers.

But if I am committing myself to 134 dollars invested and five rolls of risk being involved, its not really some sort of 1.414 percent house edge game, is it?

Quote: FleaStiff

Okay. Several different concepts in one thread here. Sorry about that but I'd like to discuss "a" real world craps betting system. Perhaps its similar to yours, perhaps not. I'd like to know the math related to a certain betting style and a certain time at table rather than a per roll basis.

Here is what the style of play is:

One PassLine bet with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Two ComeBets with 2x odds asap. Odds once up are never off or down.
Place the Inside Numbers and leave up for FIVE rolls, using any interim place bet winnings to press that placebet. I believe it would be customary that any such place bets would be moved to the "sister number" so as to avoid placing the point number, but its up to the math whizzes to figure out if they want to handle such things or not.

What is a house edge for something like this? Its clear that there is a certain expectation of winning some of those place bets, but the money will be pressed and will not be taken as "winnings".

Is this appreciably different from considering just the textbook house edge? If I resolve to never remove the odds and to always press any winning place bets unless five rolls have gone by, does it make any difference?

You haven't been specific enough -- when do you make the place bets, etc? Is it after or before the come bets? Before the come-out roll - and are they working?

The house edge is simply the house edge of the various bets you're making times the weighted average of how often they're working. The second come bet will happen less than 100% of the time, for example, since sometimes the shooter does point-7 or point-winner and you can't make the bet.

I was contemplating Placing the Inside numbers as soon as possible and working whenever possible.

I do realize that between the two extremes, there are a variety of possibilities wherein some of those place bets pay off and some of those rolls are naturals, some are craps and some are point numbers.

I just want to focus on the fact that I'm committing myself to not take any winnings but to press bets.

An alternative would be to just make a line bet and an odds bet that total about the same amount, 134.00. I just don't know if there is a way to analyze the wisdom of having separate modest bets for five rolls or one bet, with odds, that either Passes or fails.

Its just that I can't see this 1.414 percent edge as what the casino is really making its money on. The casino keeps 20 percent of most people's buy-ins and 100 percent of my buy-ins, so this 1.414 percent sure ain't the proper figure.

Quote: FleaStiff

Its just that I can't see this 1.414 percent edge as what the casino is really making its money on. The casino keeps 20 percent of most people's buy-ins and 100 percent of my buy-ins, so this 1.414 percent sure ain't the proper figure.

First, it's not the passline where the casino makes its money. A $10 line bet is worth 14c to the casino. At the standard rate of 35 come-outs per hour, that's about $5/hour. They make their money on the prop bets and outside place/buy bets. And the field.

Second, don't confuse buy-in with action. If Joe buys in with $100 and leaves with $20, he's lost 20% of his buy-in. If he gave the table $1000 in action, he's only lost 2% of his action. The EV of a wager is related to win/action, not win/buy-in (e.g. win/drop).

Remember, it's 1.41% of every pass line bet made till resolution. So the house takes it chunk out of buy ins over several bets made (the 20% drop). If you place the six, then push each time it hits, your paying a bigger and bigger actual EV time as you raise it up.

Quote: thecesspit

Remember, it's 1.41% of every pass line bet made till resolution.

Not if the resolution is a win for the player.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Not if the resolution is a win for the player.

At that point, the expected value becomes an actual value...

Quote: thecesspit

At that point, the expected value becomes an actual value...

Isn't it quite a bit more? Because in calculating expected value, isn't the likelihood or unlikelihood of a loss is factored in?

Quote: SanchoPanza

Isn't it quite a bit more? Because in calculating expected value, isn't the likelihood or unlikelihood of a loss is factored in?

That's sort of what I mean. The EV resolves into an actual value, which in a game with two out comes has two values. One a loss, and one a win. There is no expected value, there's just an actual payment.