odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 271
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April 12th, 2017 at 6:37:31 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

so, do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?

I would ask why you didn't read the thread, but on reflection, I can remember when some of the concepts were so much 'greek' to me as well.

I still think you need to bone up on basics, to ask better questions. But I will try to answer:

*The stipulation that the house edge does not change has not been challenged but supported instead.

But there are two things that can change, so that makes it confusing. Here they are again:

*Where you show putting more into action by continuing to make DC bets has the effect of putting more up against that HE. So, your expected loss has to increase. That the HE doesn't actually change makes it confusing I guess.

*Continuing to do max odds with the DC bets also increases the Variance. Variance is a concept you need to grasp, and although it is similar to 'luck' it doesn't mean that exactly since it usually also means 'wider swings'. Look again at the roulette example upthread.

I guess you want a simple answer to "do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?" but I don't want to try to give such to just the concept of "odds" - which I'm not even sure you are using correctly in terms of what you want to know.
"We thank with brief thanksgiving Whatever gods may be That no man lives forever, That dead men rise up never" And no gambler sees the long run ........apologies to Swinburne for that last line
roumin
roumin
Joined: Apr 7, 2017
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April 12th, 2017 at 9:19:52 PM permalink
I am not mathematically challenged, but statistics did give me a headache in school. It doesn't surprise or offend me that I am not asking good questions, but I think you can read between the lines. I guess I was struggling to understand (or accept) that HE doesn't change with continuous DC bets, but I think the fog is starting to clear. To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but increases the variance, thus wider swings.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 271
  • Posts: 7129
April 13th, 2017 at 3:50:53 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

I am not mathematically challenged, but statistics did give me a headache in school. It doesn't surprise or offend me that I am not asking good questions, but I think you can read between the lines. I guess I was struggling to understand (or accept) that HE doesn't change with continuous DC bets, but I think the fog is starting to clear. To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but increases the variance, thus wider swings.



Very good! I'd modify that to: To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but betting continuously increases the variance, thus wider swings.
"We thank with brief thanksgiving Whatever gods may be That no man lives forever, That dead men rise up never" And no gambler sees the long run ........apologies to Swinburne for that last line

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