roumin
roumin
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April 7th, 2017 at 9:29:54 AM permalink
What is the House Edge for the following 2 strategies:
Strategy #1: Basic One unit bet on Don't Pass during come-out roll followed by max odds (3-4-5X) bet
Strategy #2: Strategy #1 followed by continuous Don't Come bets including max odds
I am wondering if Strategy #2 increases the house Edge since rolling a 7 will win placed bets, but lose the live don't come bet
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 7th, 2017 at 10:32:42 AM permalink
My gut answer is, the house edge is the same, since each Don't Come bet is the same as a Don't Pass bet except that the DP bet just happens to start on the comeout roll. However, since Strategy 2 exposes money to bets with a positive house edge at a faster rate, you are likely to lose more money over a particular number of rolls with Strategy 2 than with Strategy 1.

Also keep in mind that a 2, 3, or 12 wins the DC bet while keeping the odds bets in play. Of course, an 11 loses the DC and keeps the odds in play,
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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April 7th, 2017 at 10:36:21 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Also keep in mind that a 2, 3, or 12 wins the DC bet while keeping the odds bets in play. Of course, an 11 loses the DC and keeps the odds in play,

12 does not win a Don't Come bet. Every place I've ever seen has it as a push. You can always tell when the dealers tap the table a couple of times.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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Thanks for this post from:
DeMango
April 7th, 2017 at 11:34:20 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

12 does not win a Don't Come bet. Every place I've ever seen has it as a push. You can always tell when the dealers tap the table a couple of times.


d'oh
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 7th, 2017 at 12:32:36 PM permalink
The house edge will be unchanged by how often, in continuously betting the Don't, 7 or 11 is rolled on the come-out, 0.273% per bet made. As each bet is made, it faces the same chances, the past does not matter and the next roll is random - as long as this is true, the edge can't change.

The issue of Variance, though, can be impacted by hedging, so the question becomes whether it is a type of hedging. In a similar question for right-side bettors, the Wizard opined that it is the opposite of hedging. I might be able to find that thread, but since this is darkside betting, I guess it possible that wouldnt answer this question on the matter.

I spent some a session darkside betting yesterday and experienced the phenomenon of the house steadily taking the money of the right-siders and the dark-siders all at the same time! The 7 in particular, as you note, can serve the house against the don't and not do much for right-siders. When I played the DC it was particularly maddeningly frequent to have it knock me off while being a 7-out against the pass line. As time went on I did OK but was down a bit. It was hard to say whether the right-siders benefited since they were all devoted to the sucker bets and would likely get killed in all scenarios.
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." .......... Mark Twain
ahiromu
ahiromu
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April 7th, 2017 at 12:39:46 PM permalink
House edge is a really bad mechanic when comparing two strategies of unequal exposure. If by house edge you mean estimated loss per unit bet, then it does not change. However, expected loss increases dramatically (would require math to find out how far you get on avg) because your overall action is higher.

I think the answer to what you are asking is a categorical "No".

Further: Every roll is independent, the fact that bets may be correlated makes no difference. Let's say you place a don't pass, a 5 is rolled, then you place a don't come. This is no different from you waiting until the first DP is resolved and placing another DP. I mean there is a difference, but not in terms of expected loss (considering these rolls ONLY, not the continuous betting that would increase it in the end).
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roumin
roumin
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April 7th, 2017 at 1:48:23 PM permalink
I understand that each roll is independent and bets individually carry the same risk/outcome, but when combined, it seems that the risk per unit changes.
If after few runs, I end up with few dark side bets., it seems the odds of rolling one of the numbers occupied will increase dramatically. I wish I can run a simulation and see the expected outcome per unit with standalone DP bets vs DP+1,2,3 DC bets vs. DP + continuous DC bets.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 9th, 2017 at 3:15:55 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

I understand that each roll is independent and bets individually carry the same risk/outcome, but when combined, it seems that the risk per unit changes.

"Risk" is not a term you see much in gambling writing, at least not as a meaningful single concept, it seems to be a term that can have different meanings. So I think going down that road will confuse folks.

I suggest you get a grip on the meaning of Variance; since you can see the posts saying the HE does not change have not been challenged, that pretty much leaves Variance as what can change. To grasp it, one good example has been roulette. No matter how many numbers you bet, the HE stays the same. Yet to bet whole sections something is changing, right? If you bet 80% of the numbers, you have to win more often, so we would say you have lowered the Variance. Bet one number and you seldom win, but you win big when you do. You have increased the Variance. Think about betting all the numbers, including the zeroes. You hand over 38 units and you receive back 35 plus your bet on the one number that pays. Each time this would happen exactly, so now you have reduced the Variance to exactly nothing!

I found the thread where your question was approached from right-side betting.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/853-argument-about-hedging-in-craps/
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." .......... Mark Twain
Tanko
Tanko
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April 9th, 2017 at 10:27:59 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

I wish I can run a simulation and see the expected outcome per unit with standalone DP bets vs DP+1,2,3 DC bets vs. DP + continuous DC bets.


WinCraps Pro
roumin
roumin
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April 12th, 2017 at 4:16:37 PM permalink
so, do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?

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