March 27th, 2017 at 7:43:21 AM
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Quote:klimate10

Did someone really just say that place bets are better than come bets because you have to hit the come bet twice? Lol.

Yup, a sock puppet from another dice board did!

March 27th, 2017 at 9:30:09 AM
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Quote:DeMangoYup, a sock puppet from another dice board did!

Not that bad of a comment... Pass line is the worst bet in my opinion. Sure the odds behind are true odds...but what good are true odds if the probability of hitting it is low. I rather play the place bets. Hit a couple of boxes and walk away. THIS is the closest to a winning strategy in craps... if there is one.

I was on the dice table last week again with a guy who can never go off. He just stays on every roll and thinks he is going to get lots of numbers every time. He goes broke every time I see him. I play on the same game, the same rolls. However, I go off after I hit a couple of boxes , then start over again on new shooters if I like the way the shoot. Needless to say... I walked away from the table ahead, and the others all lost. So, I would argue that this is the winning strategy. Ive done it over and over and watched the same results of others. If you stick around and stay on every roll thinking 'that roll' is going to be a long roll, you will go broke quicker than you can say broke mf. Hit n Run.... this is the winning strategy. Period!

'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'

March 27th, 2017 at 11:56:47 AM
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edit edit edit

Last edited by: klimate10 on Mar 27, 2017

March 27th, 2017 at 1:58:28 PM
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I see some problems with what you posted, perhaps you are interested in discussing it.

Let me see if I can do the math - sometimes that is a bad outcome!! Seems to me the bet on a '6' has 5 ways to win and 6 ways to lose - you use all the possible sides of the dice that could come up - that's 11 outcomes that count, probability then is 5/11 for a win, 6/11 for a loss.

put bet with $115 free odds pays even money on $5, 6 to 5 on the 115 or $138 + 5 = 143, we agree.

the probability though is 5/11 on a win, multiply and get $62.7272727

on a loss it is 6/11 against 120, get -$65.454545

overall house edge seems to be 2.73/120 or about 2.275%

on a place bet it pays 7:6 or $140, we agree again

5/11 on a win = 63.636363

6/11 on a loss against 120 = -65.45454

that's HE of $1.818177/120 = 1.515%

Wizard says the edge is 1.52% so I think I did it right

In any case I am trying to weigh the outcomes against the probabilities. To get the correct answer you must do that. You can see you made the wrong argument.

In Craps, if you state it that way, it usually means you have an 8:4 advantage [2 to 1 that is]. Out of 12 possible outcomes, 8 of them favor the player in that claim.Quote:klimate10For those not in the know, a put bet is effectively a come bet + odds, but you give up the advantage of coming out, where you have 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose.

You're not using weighted outcomes. You can't just go by the outcome alone, if you could, the 12 would be the smartest bet on the table since $1 pays $30 on a win.Quote:Win on a put bet where the point is 6 is $143.

Win on a 6 place bet is $140.

So a put bet, which is effectively a late come bet, whereyou give up the +ev of a come out roll, has a $3 greater pay off than a place bet (on a $120 total).

Let me see if I can do the math - sometimes that is a bad outcome!! Seems to me the bet on a '6' has 5 ways to win and 6 ways to lose - you use all the possible sides of the dice that could come up - that's 11 outcomes that count, probability then is 5/11 for a win, 6/11 for a loss.

put bet with $115 free odds pays even money on $5, 6 to 5 on the 115 or $138 + 5 = 143, we agree.

the probability though is 5/11 on a win, multiply and get $62.7272727

on a loss it is 6/11 against 120, get -$65.454545

overall house edge seems to be 2.73/120 or about 2.275%

on a place bet it pays 7:6 or $140, we agree again

5/11 on a win = 63.636363

6/11 on a loss against 120 = -65.45454

that's HE of $1.818177/120 = 1.515%

Wizard says the edge is 1.52% so I think I did it right

In any case I am trying to weigh the outcomes against the probabilities. To get the correct answer you must do that. You can see you made the wrong argument.

"No, I will weep no more. In such a night
To shut me out! ...
O, that way madness lies; let me shun that;
No more of that" - King Lear deciding he has to accept bad Variance

March 27th, 2017 at 2:04:59 PM
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Buying the 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, and 12 for $35 with vig on a win are your best bets. Beats the pass line for sure. But the pass line beats every other place bet there is. Period!Quote:WatchMeWinPass line is the worst bet in my opinion.

March 27th, 2017 at 2:36:46 PM
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It's a mistake to argue with idiots

Last edited by: klimate10 on Mar 27, 2017

March 27th, 2017 at 2:42:58 PM
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Quote:klimate10If anyone says they would rather bet $120 on a place 6 rather than $5 come + $115 odds, they don't know what the hell they're talking about.

You are missing the point here.... If you have 5 bucks on the pass and the point is 6, now you have to make the 6 again to win your place bet and odds bet. The probability of hitting the 6 twice before a 7 is the concern here. Of course if you only had to either bet the 6 and hit it one time to win 3 extra bucks, then why wouldn't you, but that is not the case. I submit, place all the box numbers regardless of what the point is (which is stuck there until point is made or 7 out) and once the number hits... take everything down and walk. Now you dont have to wait for the 6 to come again. You can win on a 4,5,6,8,9,10 and even the 2,3,11,12 if you iron cross it. The probability of hitting any of those numbers once as opposed to hitting a point number twice is dramatically different. Yes, the risk is greater, but I am willing to take those risks for higher probabilities of success. If someone point 7 out right away... oh well, thats life. It happens , but if you are disciplined and can walk after hitting 2 numbers at a clip, you will be better off in the long run.

'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'

March 27th, 2017 at 2:47:49 PM
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Bwahahaha

I love craps players.

I'll exit this argument, and let others, who have more time and inclination, take over.

I love craps players.

I'll exit this argument, and let others, who have more time and inclination, take over.

March 27th, 2017 at 2:52:08 PM
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Quote:klimate10Bwahahaha

I love craps players.

I'll exit this argument, and let others, who have more time and inclination, take over.

Do you play craps klimate?

'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'