Oct 19, 2009
- Threads: 211
- Posts: 10963
If you return to the table you are probably a winner on past sessions.
However it is true that 'winning session" and 'net financial result' can be certainly different.
Somebody somewhere has won overall at Craps. No matter how skewed, every probability distribution has its outliers at both the positive and negative extremes. Over sufficiently numerous events the tendency for each of us is to regress towards the mean, which will be the expected values of our playing styles multiplied by our dollar volumes, but that rare somebody is the lucky soul who embodies the positive outlier which evaded the regression and ended in the black.
The caveat is to not think that his lucky result is the smart result. Smart must be measured in advance of the event rather than after the result. Make only smart bets in order to give yourself the best chance to become a positive outlier. Smart means minimal House Edge.
This thread seeks a winning system. For over 200 years, since Craps began in New Orleans, hopeful punters have experimented with countless systems. Alas, the Red Queen of Mathematics has never relented.
Just for fun, here are a few Craps mathematical tidbits:
P ( Event ) means the probability of that event.
P ( Natural Seven ) = 0.166666667
P ( Out Seven ) = 0.395959596
P ( Game Ends with a Seven ) = 0.562626263
The journey to understanding Craps begins with the single step of appreciating the overwhelmingly dominant role of Seven.
P ( Pass ) = 0.492929293
P ( Don't Pass ) = 0.493636364
If you were to make a bet of $1980 on Pass, then your expected return is $1952.00
If you were to make a bet of $1980 on Don't Pass, then your expected return is $1953.00.
Yes, I keep accurate logs. And yes similar to the way you suggested. So yes if the scenario was what you have listed it would be 80% win pct with losing -225. But I'll give you a more realistic look at what my log would look like
1. win $825
2. win $1225
3. Lose $3000
4. Win $665
5. Win 1025
That would be 80% with a win of $740. Also a win I listed at $825 would have actually been a win of $850 or $860. I live in NJ and most of my gambling takes place in Yonkers, NY. So I deduct $15 for the toll and $5 or so for gas since its only 12 miles from my work but I'll make it more like $30 off my win total to compensate for the days I've lost.
I for whatever reason and I don't have an explanation other than I'm more confident in Yonkers than in AC or Sands my first bet is $50 lay $300 (Yonkers bubble machines are 3,4,5 times odds). On my first what I call session if I win that bet regardless of number would be $50 lay $300 on second bet and a $25 lay $150 on the dont come bar. If I'm lucky and win those bets I am up and off that machine and I've completed what I call play 1. However today and many other days to when I lose the first bet I don't have a set pattern of what I would do on my next play. Today after losing first bet and being down $350 I bet $200 and laid $180 (not even close to full odds) against an 8 and won. So now I'm back even. A couple of more bets and I ended up $400 on play#1 for me. So I get up cash my tickets (in Yonkers if you win $625 or more you get a Jackpot ticket and have to cash it at cashier) put my $400 that I won away and restart my next round with my normal bankroll of $3000. I personally like changing dice tables for lack of a better word because Yonkers again are made up of machines. There are 3 different areas of Yonkers that have different machines for those areas. My next play today was $75 lay $450 against a 4 I win another $300 and I call that one bet session 2. Now I'm up $700. So for me once I've gotten by the first 2 sessions as a winner I am going to walk out of Yonkers a winner no matter what because my 3rd play is a one time bet. Today it was $50 lay $300 against a 5 and I lose. Making my win total $350 but I list it as $325 in my memos because I take out toll and fuel.
Some days I may go back to Yonkers later in the day and play again. But if I won $325 earlier and lost $3000 later I would record it as a loss for the daay of $2675. If I won both times saying the second time I won $800(after taking out another toll and misc expense) I would list the day as a win of $1125.
Lets say I'm down over $1000 of my $3000 bankroll I may make one bet for say $300 lay the balance against whatever or I may make a bet that is half or so of my remaining balance to try to get back in the game. There have been times I was down to $500 or $600 and went all in and won. Then did the same thing on the following bet and won and been not even but in more manageable shape. I have no set formula of what I'm going to do especially when I'm down. The one thing I do know is I am not going to make small bets to try to get back in the game I'm going to make big bets. If I win great if I lose I accept the loss and go home. Tomorrow is another day and I don't worry about what I won or lost the previous day. Again generally when I lose it is going to be the $3000 and its going to take 3 or 4 days to get the money I lost previously back.
I think we all know if we are going to be successful gambling the most important thing to do is accept loses and not to chase money. If we do that we have a good portion of what we need to do to be successful completed.
So basically that is what I do. It seems to be working right now. I NEVER make any proposition bets or make any bets other than don't come/dont come bar bets. I don't gamble for enjoyment I gamble for money.
I'm just trying to figure out what the long run is? True my record is what it is right now 74-18 +16598. But I am well aware of the fact that I risk $3000 every time I gamble which makes my record worthless if I lost 6 times in a row and be 74-24 and down 1402. Obviously the only thing that matters in the end is are you up or down. Many on this board say you can't win in the long run but no one knows exactly when that long run starts. I am certainly not secure yet because I haven't accomplished winning enough money to offset any kind of reasonable losing streak. On this current time I've tracked my daily betting I did have a 3 day losing streak totaling 9000. As well as a couple 2 days in a row losing streak. I can say based on betting this way for a long time, well before I actually put pen to paper, that I've never had any run were I lost more than 3 or 4 days in a row. But again when I win it will never be $3000. It can be as little as $250 and on a real good day it might be $1600.
The one thing I do seem to get on this board which doesn't surprise me is skepticism. It is amazing that anyone even gambles if there is mathematically no chance to win. Perhaps there isn't any chance to win but some of the non believers are also jealous too because they are losing and can't believe someone is winning.