alphastorm
alphastorm
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November 10th, 2016 at 7:50:18 PM permalink
So let's just assume dice control is a real thing. How would you go about betting?
FleaStiff
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November 10th, 2016 at 8:02:36 PM permalink
Quote: alphastorm

So let's just assume dice control is a real thing. How would you go about betting?


I am sorry. I would be forced by common sense to bet on the casinos, which of course means that dice control does not work since the casinos have been surviving it for donkey's years.
MathExtremist
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November 10th, 2016 at 8:04:20 PM permalink
Quote: alphastorm

So let's just assume dice control is a real thing. How would you go about betting?

If you know how the dice are biased, bet that way. If you don't, bet according to the numbers that are showing up the most. Either that bias will persist and you'll make money, or it won't and it will all average out to the normal expectation anyway. The only way you lose if someone is biasing the dice is if you bet against their bias.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MrV
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November 10th, 2016 at 8:38:33 PM permalink
Hypothetically, if I KNEW that the shooter was in fact a true DI and I KNEW that he actually CAN control dem bones: well, duh: I'd bet the same way the shooter does.
"What, me worry?"
Zcore13
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November 10th, 2016 at 9:41:30 PM permalink
I would whisper in the DI's ear " What number are you going to throw?" And then I'd bet on it. And then just to make sure he does it some more I would tip him half of all my winning. Then I'd ask him again very quietly "When are you coming back?" And as sure as the day is long I would return at that time with a very large sum of money that I had just borrowed from a bank at 8.46% interest and quadruple it. I would then go back to the bank and pay off my loan the next day and go buy a Shetland Pony.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
MathExtremist
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November 10th, 2016 at 9:44:17 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I would whisper in the DI's ear " What number are you going to throw?" And then I'd bet on it. And then just to make sure he does it some more I would tip him half of all my winning. Then I'd ask him again very quietly "When are you coming back?" And as sure as the day is long I would return at that time with a very large sum of money that I had just borrowed from a bank at 8.46% interest and quadruple it. I would then go back to the bank and pay off my loan the next day and go buy a Shetland Pony.

I think the total cost of ownership of a Shetland Pony is probably greater than 8.46%. I'd stay at the craps table for an extra few days.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
ontariodealer
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November 10th, 2016 at 10:42:05 PM permalink
id make a fortune at the craps table and blow it all on the pony
get second you pig
GWAE
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November 11th, 2016 at 3:01:00 AM permalink
You guys are ridiculous. Why would you buy a fat pony. You should buy a miniature horse.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
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November 11th, 2016 at 3:21:03 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

You guys are ridiculous. Why would you buy a fat pony. You should buy a miniature horse.

Do your kids have one?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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November 11th, 2016 at 3:35:34 AM permalink
This is not about dice control but I heard an interesting comment about dice strategy. The poster said that if you bet Don't Pass and then got through to a number such as 10 for example that there's no way you should lay odds. Because after getting past the past line roll and not sevening or elevening out and landing on a number your bet now has an edge. If you lay odds you reduce that edge with the two bets, the number and the lay. Interesting. But what's the point anyway in looking for an edge unless you believe in DI because overall your total bet is still negative EV.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 11, 2016
Please don't feed the trolls
DeMango
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November 11th, 2016 at 11:27:27 AM permalink
Did John Patrick come up with that?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
MathExtremist
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November 11th, 2016 at 11:32:04 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

This is not about dice control but I heard an interesting comment about dice strategy. The poster said that if you bet Don't Pass and then got through to a number such as 10 for example that there's no way you should lay odds. Because after getting past the past line roll and not sevening or elevening out and landing on a number your bet now has an edge. If you lay odds you reduce that edge with the two bets, the number and the lay. Interesting. But what's the point anyway in looking for an edge unless you believe in DI because overall your total bet is still negative EV.

The don't bet doesn't have a new edge. It has a lower conditional probability of winning, but those are different things. The odds bet is the new bet and that has an edge of 0. The question you should ask yourself is "do I want to make a no-vig lay bet on the 10 or do I want to put my money elsewhere?"
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zcore13
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November 11th, 2016 at 11:56:17 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I think the total cost of ownership of a Shetland Pony is probably greater than 8.46%. I'd stay at the craps table for an extra few days.



It would only be a 1 day loan. I'd make sure there were no prepayment fees. Also, I'd like it to be an indoor pony. So I should probably consider the chance of damage on my projections.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
MathExtremist
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November 11th, 2016 at 12:24:25 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

It would only be a 1 day loan. I'd make sure there were no prepayment fees. Also, I'd like it to be an indoor pony. So I should probably consider the chance of damage on my projections.

If it's an indoor pony, you're going to need a place for it to sleep.

I suggest a craps table. With no legs of course, otherwise how would it climb in?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RS
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November 11th, 2016 at 12:39:06 PM permalink
Thanks Zcore for posting about shetland ponies. Had to google it. Spent the next hour learning about different kinds of horses, then shetland dogs or some such nonsense, ending up reading about beagles and their history along with other dogs (basset hounds and other hunting dogs).
pwcrabb
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November 11th, 2016 at 2:06:26 PM permalink
Even with an edge of zero, I prefer not to risk more value than I stand to gain on any bet. To arrive at that policy, I simply compared my own bankroll to that of my opponent and thought of variance. Absent other factors, over time the infinite bankroll wins.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
RS
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November 11th, 2016 at 2:07:17 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Absent other factors, over time the big bankroll wins.



False.
pwcrabb
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November 11th, 2016 at 2:10:26 PM permalink
Hello RS. Please elaborate.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
RS
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November 11th, 2016 at 2:21:15 PM permalink
I can't remember the exact formula, but it's something like this:

PB = personal bankroll
CB = casino bankroll

Risk of ruin is therefore: CB/(PB+CB) in a fair game or wager. So you either end up with all the money (yours + casino's) or the casino ends up with all the money (yours + casino's).

But the casino doesn't always win, even though they are more likely to win (assuming you play forever until one has all the money).

Not entirely sure if that's the correct formula or not.
Last edited by: RS on Nov 11, 2016
pwcrabb
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November 11th, 2016 at 2:35:16 PM permalink
Hello RS. Even adopting your formula for the sake of discussion, one derives a vanishingly small probability of ultimately prevailing. The correct formula for the risk of ruin is exponential rather than geometric but the theoretical bottom line is comparable.

In the short run, of course, the limited bankroll can prevail. That is why we play.

But I still prefer to Take Odds rather than to Lay them.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
lilredrooster
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November 11th, 2016 at 3:55:40 PM permalink
Frank Scoblete whose books and claims I don't consider to be legitimate nonetheless made an interesting comment. He said that if a player bets pass or come and does not choose to bet the free odds then you, if you are at the table can ask him if you can make a free odds bet on his number and if he says okay then you can do it. He didn't say it but I'm assuming that he is claiming that the dealers or boxman will not object to this. So then you have made the only bet in a casino (excluding an AP's bet at blackjack) that does not have negative EV. It has an edge of zero. Of course, the bet is technically his bet, so if it is won I guess he could claim that it is his but that would be a pretty bold move on his part. Kind of interesting.
Please don't feed the trolls
MathExtremist
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November 11th, 2016 at 4:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Frank Scoblete whose books and claims I don't consider to be legitimate nonetheless made an interesting comment. He said that if a player bets pass or come and does not choose to bet the free odds then you, if you are at the table can ask him if you can make a free odds bet on his number and if he says okay then you can do it. He didn't say it but I'm assuming that he is claiming that the dealers or boxman will not object to this. So then you have made the only bet in a casino (excluding an AP's bet at blackjack) that does not have negative EV. It has an edge of zero. Of course, the bet is technically his bet, so if it is won I guess he could claim that it is his but that would be a pretty bold move on his part. Kind of interesting.

I've done that on occasion. Even better is if you find a don't player who is in the habit of pulling their bets down on numbers they don't like (e.g., 6 or 8). Offer to buy the bet from them for face value. If they say yes, you're getting a +EV bet that pays even money more than half the time. You can even buy the bet from them at greater than face value if it's big enough (e.g. you pay $105 to buy a $100 bet), splitting some of the +EV with them but keeping some for yourself. The dealer will still pay the player, but then the player will (or should) hand everything over to you. Buying a 6 or 8 is a 9.1% player edge, minus whatever you pay extra to the player. Buying a 5 or 9 would be a 20% player edge and 4 or 10 would be 33.3%, but I've never seen anyone pull down a 4 or 10.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
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