DanMahoney
DanMahoney
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February 7th, 2016 at 7:41:56 PM permalink
I just tossed 58 tosses in a row without getting any sevens. I wonder what the probability of this is and how does it compare to the 18 yoes in a row? Of course I am a sometimes Dice Influencer.
ThatDonGuy
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February 7th, 2016 at 8:19:51 PM permalink
The probability of not throwing a 7 is 5/6, so the probability of 58 in a row is (5/6)58, or about 1 in 39,130.

Note that the probability of 4 11s in a row is 1 in 104,976, so it doesn't come close to that, much less 18 of them.
DanMahoney
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February 7th, 2016 at 8:36:02 PM permalink
Thanks for the quick response. My gut feeling is that it would be easier to toss 4 11s in a row than 60 or so non sevens tosses. That just goes to show how wrong impressions can be.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Feb 8, 2016
ThatDonGuy
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February 7th, 2016 at 8:51:59 PM permalink
Quote: DanMahoney

Thanks for the quick response. My gut feeling is that it would be easier to toss 4 11s in a row then 60 or so non sevens tosses. That just goes to show how wrong impressions can be.


63 non-7s in a row is about 1 in 97,369; 64 is about 1 in 116,842.
dicesitter
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February 9th, 2016 at 8:01:37 AM permalink
Thatdontguy


What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......

5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.



dicesetter
MidwestAP
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February 9th, 2016 at 8:19:43 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Thatdontguy


What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......

5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.



dicesetter



Actually it's approx 1.56 trillion to one.

What I've never been clear on is did she roll a 7 on any of her come out rolls, thus still keeping her roll?
rdw4potus
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February 9th, 2016 at 8:21:07 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Thatdontguy


What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......

5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.

dicesetter



So, twice as likely as getting 8 yos in a row? Hmmm...8 is almost 18, right?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
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February 9th, 2016 at 8:22:09 AM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

Actually it's approx 1.56 trillion to one.

What I've never been clear on is did she roll a 7 on any of her come out rolls, thus still keeping her roll?



She did roll 7s on the come out. I think that takes some of the rarity out of the event, so the 1.56 trillion is high.

*edited post for clarity*
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
MidwestAP
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February 9th, 2016 at 8:25:05 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

She did roll 7s on the come out. I think that takes some of the rarity out of the event, so the 1.56 trillion is high.

*edited post for clarity*



Agreed, 1.56 trillion would be for no 7's on any roll. thanks
BasesLoaded
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February 9th, 2016 at 10:43:43 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Thatdontguy


What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......

5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.



dicesetter



That is incorrect. That is the way Time magazine reported it thinking a dice hand can have no sevens. Her hand did in fact have numerous sevens; during come out rolls after points were made. So the odds of her roll occurring were much more realistic.
ThatDonGuy
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February 9th, 2016 at 11:56:45 AM permalink
Quote: BasesLoaded

That is incorrect. That is the way Time magazine reported it thinking a dice hand can have no sevens. Her hand did in fact have numerous sevens; during come out rolls after points were made. So the odds of her roll occurring were much more realistic.


Actually, 5.59 billion to 1 (Excel says it's 5,590,264,071 to 1, but that's subject to roundoff error) is the probability that includes 7s on the comeout rolls.

Still, even a run of 217 rolls without a seven-out is more likely than 18 straight 11s. In fact, a run of 200 or more is 12.7 times as likely.
dicesitter
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February 9th, 2016 at 1:13:49 PM permalink
Thatdontguy



However you rate it, it is something.

The point I was making is that no matter what the odds, funny things
can happen on a craps table, and people should not be so quick to
call others a liar or whatever, when there is really no way to know if
some one did throw 18 yo's in a row, or 154 rolls without a seven out.


dicesetter
TwoFeathersATL
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February 9th, 2016 at 1:20:23 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Thatdontguy



However you rate it, it is something.

The point I was making is that no matter what the odds, funny things
can happen on a craps table, and people should not be so quick to
call others a liar or whatever, when there is really no way to know if
some one did throw 18 yo's in a row, or 154 rolls without a seven out.


dicesetter

Yep, the odds are odds. They say it has to happen eventually. Maybe it happened yesterday, maybe you should have been there ;-) 2F
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DanMahoney
DanMahoney
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February 9th, 2016 at 3:25:23 PM permalink
Where can I contact this Excel guy? Does he have his own forum or something?
christofar7
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February 9th, 2016 at 4:44:50 PM permalink
33 years ago....on my first trip to AC by myself as a new 21 year old dice player, I rolled 13 craps in a row on a come out......it was a $5 table so I lost $65., not knowing anything about horns or worlds.....has anyone seen anything close to 13 consecutive craps on a come out roll? I've been making world bets on the come out for 33 years waiting for someone to break my record....the most I have seen since then is 5.....
DanMahoney
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February 9th, 2016 at 9:12:16 PM permalink
Sounds like a lot of craps to me.
AxelWolf
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February 10th, 2016 at 3:23:45 AM permalink
Quote: DanMahoney

Sounds like a lot of craps to me.

Nice one.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
bartleby7334
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November 29th, 2016 at 12:50:56 PM permalink
I made 7 craps in a row on the come out last month in Albuquerque playing dark side on a table by myself. Had thrown a buck on any crap for the dealers, and they parlayed some of their winnings to
about $600. 0nce in a lifetime thing.
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