Avenger803
Avenger803
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September 7th, 2013 at 2:43:28 PM permalink
I'm going to LV in a few weeks and am trying to learn Craps before I go.

I understand that there is a table minimum for Craps. I'll be staying at Ceasers Palace and it looks like it is $10.

Does that $10 minimum only apply to pass \ come \ don't bets? Or does it apply to everything (hard ways, buy, place, etc.)?
FleaStiff
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September 7th, 2013 at 3:55:13 PM permalink
Quote: Avenger803

I'm going to LV in a few weeks and am trying to learn Craps before I go.

I understand that there is a table minimum for Craps. I'll be staying at Ceasers Palace and it looks like it is $10.

Does that $10 minimum only apply to pass \ come \ don't bets? Or does it apply to everything (hard ways, buy, place, etc.)?



At a ten dollar minimum table: LINE BETS and FIELD bets must be at least ten dollars UNLESS they are bets for the dealers.
A PLACE BET is viewed as a COME BET wherein you've selected the number, so a PLACE BET would be subject to the minimum and any PLACE BET of SIX or EIGHT should be 12 dollars but if you want to cheat yourself by making it only ten its allowable, though foolish and any decent dealer will encourage you to make it 12.

Hardways bets can be the lowest chip on the table which is usually ONE dollar, if you want. Even at a ten dollar table. However, you should not be making hardways bets if you are a beginner.

BE sure to attend the lessons that are offered. And I recommend that you start out playing fairly early in the day when things are likely to be somewhat slow and dealers will be perfectly able to assist you without slowing everyone else down. Note: Feel free to let the dealers know you are a "newbie"... they will pay extra attention to you and will probably find out you are newbie fairly soon if you don't tell them.

Remember, it is never NECESSARY to tip but it is often useful for you to do it and if you tip early in a game its best for you since they the crew will notice you right from the start, but always remember it is never mandatory and if you feel unhappy in any way there are other tables and other casinos.
cowboy
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September 7th, 2013 at 7:57:10 PM permalink
I just returned from the strip and there were lots of casinos offering $5 tables during the daytime. You definitely want to play a lower minimum table if you are just starting out. Same idea as above, if you want to Place 6 or 8 on a $5 table, you should make it a $6 bet.
Ahigh
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September 7th, 2013 at 8:46:20 PM permalink
My best advice is that when you are learning don't worry about winning, and bet the minimum bet on the pass line and observe for 100 rolls. 100 rolls lasts about an hour. The edge is 0.42% per roll and the volatility is very tiny winning almost half the time on average. So you can expect to lose 0.42% of your bet 100 times, which is about half of one unit's cost to watch for an hour while playing and having fun. That only costs (on average approximately) $5 per hour on a $10 table.

You will be giving up the chance to win big, but also avoiding the possibility to win big too.

Low volatility is a good idea in my opinion when you just want to take up space an observe the game and maybe get a free drink or two.
aahigh.com
7craps
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September 7th, 2013 at 9:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: Avenger803

I'm going to LV in a few weeks and am trying to learn Craps before I go.

You will learn way more by playing craps
and might just forget everything you learned before playing for real as you start your first session of play.
Happens a lot.
Quote: Avenger803

I understand that there is a table minimum for Craps.
I'll be staying at Ceasers Palace and it looks like it is $10.
Does that $10 minimum only apply to pass \ come \ don't bets?
Or does it apply to everything (hard ways, buy, place, etc.)?



The table minimum,
normally in Nevada,
applies to the *self-service area* of the craps layout,

in other words,
the bets that the player can make themselves (place on the felt)
without assistance from the dealer(s).
(any casino can set their own rules)

*self-service area*
Pass line
Pass Line Odds
Don't Pass
Don't Pass Odds
Come
Don't Come
Field
Big 6 (some layouts do not have this bet)
Big 8 (some layouts do not have this bet)
Some layouts also have a Fire Bet

unsolicited advice:
Keep you hands out of the center bet area and especially
the Boss' Cash Register,
the 6 box numbers next to the base dealers.

also
Expect to have any 30 bet session end
(one hour of play give or takes)
between
-$160 and +$160
(flat bet $10 pass line and no odds to start)
nothing you can do about where you can end up in that interval (99.85%)

Good Luck and
Have Fun!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
FleaStiff
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September 7th, 2013 at 9:23:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


Low volatility is a good idea in my opinion when you just want to take up space an observe the game and maybe get a free drink or two.

I always want to win enough to buy the entire casino and live a life of luxury amidst hundreds of naked adoring young babes.
cowboy
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September 7th, 2013 at 9:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: Avenger803

I'm going to LV in a few weeks and am trying to learn Craps before I go.


Another thing you can do is play the craps simulator (the one at the bottom of the page) here:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
beachbumbabs
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September 7th, 2013 at 9:34:19 PM permalink
I played craps for the first time in May and this is all very useful advice, thanks, especially 7craps for laying that out. FWIW, they had me betting 10 on the PL, 1 on AC on the comeout, then place the 6-8 for 12 each and back my PL bet with 3x Odds. (I was the only player that morning and knew the dealers from the card pit. Feel free to comment on that bet strategy as well.) I was curious about Dr. Johnny's bet, where you place the 5-6-8-9 and buy the 4-10 (though as a newbie I would prefer to do it for $32 rather than $64). It's my money and all, but is it common that people put up and remove bets short of a point/7out, or is it a general nuisance to the dealers and/or table as a whole? If anybody else is playing that area, they're having to pick up my chips from all the rest, and hand them back; seems like a hassle to me but maybe that's how it goes? I wouldn't care if it were within my reach, but apparently that's an area that's strictly run by the dealers.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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September 7th, 2013 at 10:00:12 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I played craps for the first time in May and this is all very useful advice, thanks, especially 7craps for laying that out. FWIW, they had me betting 10 on the PL, 1 on AC on the comeout, then place the 6-8 for 12 each and back my PL bet with 3x Odds. (I was the only player that morning and knew the dealers from the card pit. Feel free to comment on that bet strategy as well.) I was curious about Dr. Johnny's bet, where you place the 5-6-8-9 and buy the 4-10 (though as a newbie I would prefer to do it for $32 rather than $64). It's my money and all, but is it common that people put up and remove bets short of a point/7out, or is it a general nuisance to the dealers and/or table as a whole? If anybody else is playing that area, they're having to pick up my chips from all the rest, and hand them back; seems like a hassle to me but maybe that's how it goes? I wouldn't care if it were within my reach, but apparently that's an area that's strictly run by the dealers.



It may sound counter-intuitive, but getting paid less frequently will allow you to have a better chance to win.

All those bets have fine edges per roll (except the Any Craps at 11.11% per roll). But if you want a good chance to win, patience in getting paid has its rewards.

The dealers will advise you to take as many bets as possible. Placing just the pass line and making no other bet has no hedge. When you add the crap-check, you are buying insurance. You are less likely to lose AS MUCH but you are squelching your opportunity to win by betting AGAINST the craps. No pain no gain, basically. That's the first improvement is get rid of the crap-check.

The next improvement would be instead of betting both the six and the eight for $12 each, bet just one of them for $24 instead and just be patient. Better yet would be to put an extra $25 or $26 on your pass line odds depending on what point is established at least until you max out the odds.

If a dealer could convince you, they would have you hop every number every roll insisting that you will always get paid $31 or $32 no matter what you roll. Forget that's a $5 or $6 loss per roll guaranteed, but you're winning money every roll!

Only a true fool would bet this way, but many people who only give away a portion of their ability to win (by preventing losses on crap numbers on the comeout) don't realize that they lose 1/3, 1/5, or 10/11ths of their pass line depending on what the point is set to. If the casino can hide the fact that this is a loss, the player may not realize that they have lost until the point is not made.

Some folks run illegal craps games and pay all odds at even money because people are the gullible.

The crap check is at least a little less obvious. But 11.11% of $1 is $0.11 per roll. That's six times the cost of your pass line bet for that insurance, and 26x the house edge per roll!!!

Don't think "it's only a buck." Look at the cost, not the "savings when a crap occurs."

You have to have risk to have a reward. Kill the risk and there is no reward left.

There is risk, also, in betting the wrong number. That's a good thing. Don't try to bet all the numbers to eliminate the risk that your number doesn't roll.

Just wait. Patience is key to winning in craps.
aahigh.com
cowboy
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September 7th, 2013 at 10:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


Just wait. Patience is key to winning in craps.



Absolutely true. It's also the key to boredom. The times that I remember most clearly at the craps table (rare as they were) were when a shooter was on a hot roll and I was making money on almost every toss of the dice. That's the adrenalin rush of the game. When the shooter has a cheering section and people are laughing and clapping and having a fun time.
24Bingo
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September 7th, 2013 at 10:16:03 PM permalink
Continuous come, then? You're not losing like you would be taking hardways and hops, but you're hitting roll after roll...
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
beachbumbabs
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September 7th, 2013 at 10:41:23 PM permalink
Thanks for responding, Ahigh; I'll take this a bit at a time if that's okay.

Quote: Ahigh

It may sound counter-intuitive, but getting paid less frequently will allow you to have a better chance to win.

All those bets have fine edges per roll (except the Any Craps at 11.11% per roll). But if you want a good chance to win, patience in getting paid has its rewards.

The dealers will advise you to take as many bets as possible. Placing just the pass line and making no other bet has no hedge. When you add the crap-check, you are buying insurance. You are less likely to lose AS MUCH but you are squelching your opportunity to win by betting AGAINST the craps. No pain no gain, basically. That's the first improvement is get rid of the crap-check.



Gone. I had sort of gathered that it was not a great bet, just reading here. Thanks for verifying that!

Quote: Ahigh

The next improvement would be instead of betting both the six and the eight for $12 each, bet just one of them for $24 instead and just be patient.

Not seeing the logic in this, sorry; if I can have 2 numbers at same odds and likelihood, and my place bet keeps riding, instead of just one, how is that better? Would you mind explaining, please?

Quote: Ahigh

Better yet would be to put an extra $25 or $26 on your pass line odds depending on what point is established at least until you max out the odds.

I'm not understanding the numbers here; I was betting the max odds at 3x my PL bet, I thought, and getting paid odds depending on the point. Do you bet different amounts behind the line depending on the point?

Quote: Ahigh

If a dealer could convince you, they would have you hop every number every roll


I've seen "hop" used before in craps threads, and I don't understand the term. "hop on board"? Does it mean moving your money around after every roll? Are you talking about 1 roll bets, or just those that continue to point/7out?
Quote: Ahigh

insisting that you will always get paid $31 or $32 no matter what you roll. Forget that's a $5 or $6 loss per roll guaranteed, but you're winning money every roll!


Lost me again, sorry; I wasn't betting any one-roll bets except the AC. They had me take down my 6-8 place for whichever one was the point if it was one of them. They were riding, and often won 3-4 times before the point was made. Not arguing, just trying to understand what you're saying.

Quote: Ahigh

Only a true fool would bet this way, but many people who only give away a portion of their ability to win (by preventing losses on crap numbers on the comeout) don't realize that they lose 1/3, 1/5, or 10/11ths of their pass line depending on what the point is set to. If the casino can hide the fact that this is a loss, the player may not realize that they have lost until the point is not made.



"True fool would bet this way" being the entire thing I described, or the AC bet? Think this goes back to the question about PL odds.

Quote: Ahigh

Some folks run illegal craps games and pay all odds at even money because people are the gullible.



They were definitely paying odds just as listed in the craps area on WoO. I don't think they were conning me, except maybe on the AC bet, but you probably had to be there to know for sure. They wanted me to play very low-variance straightforward bets so I wouldn't be wasting my money.

Quote: Ahigh

The crap check is at least a little less obvious. But 11.11% of $1 is $0.11 per roll. That's six times the cost of your pass line bet for that insurance, and 26x the house edge per roll!!!

Don't think "it's only a buck." Look at the cost, not the "savings when a crap occurs."

You have to have risk to have a reward. Kill the risk and there is no reward left.



I'm a bonus bettor. As it happened, in an hour's rolls, (I wasn't counting throws, but there was a lot of talking going on, so probably 30 come-outs) I made AC 5 times. (I'm a lousy shooter based on scant evidence). I still take your point. Haha. Point. It took me that long to lose $100, and I tipped the last $14 of it; I thought it was a fair tuition fee betting at that level.

The question I asked at the end was an important one to me, though, about taking down bets in mid-roll. I'm big on table etiquette, especially group games like that. Can you or someone else who plays a lot venture an opinion, please?

Quote: Ahigh

There is risk, also, in betting the wrong number. That's a good thing. Don't try to bet all the numbers to eliminate the risk that your number doesn't roll.

Just wait. Patience is key to winning in craps.



I think I understand your point in saying this, but it's a little convoluted. Do I understand the "don't try to bet all the numbers" is the crux of what you're saying? So this is addressing the wisdom of the buy/place bets across the top, and you're suggesting it's a bad bet.

Thanks again...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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September 8th, 2013 at 12:00:53 AM permalink
Getting paid less often means having the house edge applied less often.

You want bets that last a long time and have a low edge.

In this way, your average edge per roll is lowered and the total percentage of money lost due to the house's edge is minimized.

This enables you to win more frequently for a given "session" or casino visit.

Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve.

In essence by not taking a resolved bet down, you have a new bet that has a much higher edge per resolved bet (IE: resolved by rolling a seven).

Learn the edge per roll numbers. Come up with a target win value, and when you have that target achieved, bring everything down and walk or come up with a new plan and target.

Stick to your plan at each leg until resolution (by win target or all bets resolved) has completed.

That's how to win.

If you want to just have fun, expect to lose it all and have fun. You might just get 10x or 20x what you started with if you only care to have fun and are prepared to lose it all.

The most effective way to win is often also the most boring way to "play."

Good luck in any case!
aahigh.com
RaleighCraps
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September 8th, 2013 at 12:38:27 AM permalink
Hi Beachbumbabs,

For your question on placing the 6 and 8 for $12 each or placing just one for $24, there is NO DIFFERENCE. Since both bets have a house edge of 1.52%, it does not matter if you have $24 on one number, or $12 on two numbers. Either way, you have $24 exposed to a 1.52% HE.
With just one number, you have 2 possible outcomes;
- you will either lose it all, or
- you will win more than you have bet.

With two numbers, you have 4 possible outcomes;
- you will lose it all, or
- you will win one number, and take both bets down, for a $14 profit
- you will win one bet for $14, and then lose, so a net loss of $10
- you will get paid two or more times, meaning you will win more than you bet.

Personally, unless a shooter has been hitting one of the numbers more than the other, I will play the 6 and 8 (I like having 2 chances to win something).

Regarding taking bets down from the Place/Buy area.

Having concern for the other players and the flow of the game is a courteous gesture, but ultimately, it is your money in play, so you can do as you wish. It really depends on how often you keep taking the bets down.
I have played on tables where a superstitious player kept putting his bets up, taking them down, and then putting them right back up. I think he was playing some scheme where he thought certain numbers would follow certain other numbers. It got annoying fairly quickly. I eventually found another table to play on.
If your dealer only has a couple of players, even a so-so dealer can take bets up and down without delaying the game. But, if your dealer has 5 or 6 players to deal with, taking and putting a lot of bets up and down can slow the game down.

Let's say you are on a $5 table and you decide to to play $32 across ( 5 5 6 6 5 5 - representing the 4 5 6 8 9 10 place bets).
Let's also say you have decided you would like to try and get paid on any 2 of the bets, and then you want to save your bets.
You can ask the dealer to take them down. One way to do this, is when the second bet hits, and the dealer is getting ready to pay you, say "Bring all my bets down".
However, if you intend on putting them back up in a few rolls, or on the next shooter, you could instead say, "All my place bets are OFF".
The dealer will put a little chip (a lammer) with the word OFF on either the 4 or the 10 bet, and that means ALL of your place bets are no longer working. If a 7 out is rolled, your bets will not be taken. It is the same as if your bets are sitting in your rack.
Then later on when you want the bet working again, you just tell the dealer, "My place bets are working", or "My place bets are back ON".
This is very easy for the dealer to do, BUT, you have to pay attention to YOUR money. It is not common to have bets OFF on the table, and sometimes the dealer will make a mistake and take your Place bets that were OFF. The lammer should stop them, but ultimately, it is YOUR responsibility to point out your bets were OFF. You also have to remember to tell the dealer to turn your bets back ON. If you don't and your numbers roll, you will not get paid. Just get used to paying attention for the lammer. No lammer - your bets are working. Lammer on one of your bets says OFF - your bets are not working and you will not lose them when a 7 rolls.
It sounds worse than it really is though. This is simple stuff that you will catch onto right away.

Now, let's say you have $32 across again, but this time, after you get any 2 payouts, you want to protect your winnings by reducing your bets to just the 6 and 8. Now taking down the other bets is the easiest thing to do. Trying to call OFF just some of the bets can be done, but it gets confusing.
When your second bet is getting paid, tell the dealer " Take down my OUTSIDE numbers" which means the 4 5 9 10.
Or, just tell the dealer, "Please take down my 4 5 9 and 10".
Since you got paid on 2 bets, by reducing the bets in action to just the 6 and 8, you have guaranteed a profit for this roll (assuming you are not on the PL).

The AC bet is insurance for the come out losing craps. It is nice to get 'paid' when a craps is rolled, but if you count ALL of the times you lose that $1, against the number of times it gets paid, you will quickly see it is not a good bet. It is just a slow drain, $1 at a time. Enough said.

PL bet is the best bet on the table for lowest edge, but it can chew through a lot of money. If you play no odds, the PL bet has a House Edge of 1.41%. Compare this to the Place 6 and 8 of 1.52%. I consider it to be virtually the same. Now, if you are playing odds, then you can effectively 'lower that house edge, because you are allowed to now put more money in play that has no house edge. BUT, you are now putting much more money at risk on a single event needing to occur, namely, the shooter must make the point. It is great when points are getting made, but drains your money quickly when shooters cannot make points.

A HOP bet is a one roll bet where you are calling out the specific roll that is going to happen. Let's say you "Hop the 9". You will win if any 9 is rolled. You lose if ANY other number is rolled instead. The problem with the bet is the casino does not pay you anywhere close to the true odds of the bet, so that makes it a BAD BET. You need to bet even amounts based on how many ways the number can be made, so the amount to bet changes too. You can also pick a certain combination, say, "Hop the 6-3". You win if 6-3 combination shows, otherwise you LOSE. There are 2 ways to get this combo, 6-3 or 3-6. So 36 numbers can be thrown, and you have 2 chances to win, so the odds are 18:1 that you could win. I 'think' the casino pays you 15 to 1 for this bet.
(This could be the only bet I am ahead lifetime on though. I rarely hop a number, but I have won 6 or 7 times on about 15 tries over the past 5 years. It is FUN when it works......)

The following are My OPINIONS. They may, or may not, be grounded in facts.

Craps is a volatile game. You can grind away on $100 buy-in, at $5 PL with 2x odds for quite a while, MOST of the time. On rare occasions, you will lose it very quickly, or you may double your money very quickly. But most of the time, you will ride between up $20 or down $20. Then a bad run will get you to down $40, and then you will ride between down $50 and down $20. You will experience this constant sliding loss of bankroll, until you end up putting your last bit of money on the table.
The problem I have with this style of play (even though the math says it is the best way to play) is you have all of your play risked on one event. The shooter has to make the point! If points are being made, you win. If no points are being made, you lose. Want to guess what usually happens?
I will leave it to the math boys to tell you what percentage of shooters make points, and how often they do so.

Placing $32 across gives you plenty of chances to win something, BUT that comes at a high price. The house edge on the PLACE 4 and 10 is a large 6.67%.
The 5 and 9 carry a house edge of 4%.
However, you can BUY the 4 and 10, but you only want to do this win the Vig is collected on the win. This lowers the house edge to 1.67% house edge. But many places make you bet at least $20 to do this, so now you are putting a lot more money on the table.
So, you can Buy the 4 and 10 for $20 each, and place the 6 and 8 for $6 each. That is $52, or more than 1/2 of your $100 buy in! Oops. Talk about a quick session.....

You need to decide what is your goal when you play craps. Is it important for you to WIN every time? If so, walk away as soon as you are up any amount.
Do you want to play for 1 hour, and you don't really care if you win or lose much? You have a lot of options, but a slow grind with the PL and low odds would probably get you the hour most times.
Do you want to double your money, or bust? Lots of choices now. You can play PL with full odds, or play bets across, pressing on each hit. It can get crazy really fast. But, you can double or triple your buy in with just one shooter who throws for 15 or 20 minutes.

I am an action junkie, but I buy in with enough money that I can buy the 4 and 10 (and in Biloxi I can Buy the 5 and 9 too at 2% house edge). The 5 and 9 are not really a good bet, but when I don't cover them, they just seem to roll all night long. Really gets under my skin....
I have tried various ways of playing, but generally I press my bets as much as possible. I will take a pay here and there, trying to put some money back in my rack to cover the cost of my initial bet (say it was $64 across), but once I have covered that, my goal is usually to get $90 on each number as soon as possible. ( I like collecting the black chips as a payout. lol).
I have doubled and tripled my buy-in quite a few times playing this way, but I also bust out and lose quite a bit more. So this is not a grind way to play. But if anyone gets a good roll, I make a lot of money in a hurry.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RaleighCraps
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September 8th, 2013 at 12:55:16 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

...
Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve.
...
Learn the edge per roll numbers. Come up with a target win value, and when you have that target achieved, bring everything down and walk or come up with a new plan and target.

Stick to your plan at each leg until resolution (by win target or all bets resolved) has completed.

That's how to win.

If you want to just have fun, expect to lose it all and have fun. You might just get 10x or 20x what you started with if you only care to have fun and are prepared to lose it all.

The most effective way to win is often also the most boring way to "play."

Good luck in any case!



This is a concise summary of how to play craps to win.
If I had the option of a nearby casino, and could play any time I wanted, this is the way to play to win. Although, if I could play every day, I think I would probably take my chances on the dark side. DP bets, play to win $100 and leave.

But, I have a 3-5 hour trip in front of me to get to a craps table. So playing a low edge bet to resolution, and then taking it down, is not really an option. I didn't make the effort to get to the table, just to watch other people win/lose their money.
And, there is always the issue of taking money out of play, only to make the same bet later is not really doing anything.

Since the dice are random, and each number always has its same chance of showing up, you gain nothing by taking the bets down, only to put them up again for the next shooter/later. Even leaving and coming back the next day doesn't really have an affect, other than physically there are new people, probably different dice, etc. But there is nothing that affects the math, or the chances of those same bets being better the next time you decide to bet them.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
FleaStiff
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September 8th, 2013 at 2:56:09 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps


I am an action junkie, but I buy in with enough money ...
I have tried various ways of playing, but generally I press my bets as much as possible.
my goal is usually to get $90 on each number as soon as possible.
I have doubled and tripled my buy-in quite a few times playing this way, but I also bust out and lose quite a bit more. So this is not a grind way to play. But if anyone gets a good roll, I make a lot of money in a hurry.



Its a matter of style of play and goals. Some people focus on Time at Table and just want a grind game for entertainment. Some are willing to take many small loses for the opportunity to have a big win and others want the many small wins at the risk of massive loss.

The one thing that is universally agreed here is that the "craps check" of One Dollar on the AC is a slow steady bleed of buying insurance. Its much better not to hedge but to simply face the loss.
chickenman
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September 8th, 2013 at 4:00:18 AM permalink
Welcome back, Aaron--good to read your solid advice on craps
FleaStiff
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September 8th, 2013 at 4:27:10 AM permalink
>Getting paid less often means having the house edge applied less often.
But the house edge applies each and every roll of the dice.

>You want bets that last a long time and have a low edge.
Time is not relevant its rolls of the dice.

>Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve.
I rarely take down any bet once made.
Its only PLACE bets that I'm able to take down anyway.
Mission146
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September 8th, 2013 at 7:13:39 AM permalink
+1 @ RaleighCraps, excellent post!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ahigh
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September 8th, 2013 at 8:43:09 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

>Getting paid less often means having the house edge applied less often.
But the house edge applies each and every roll of the dice.



Wrong. The house edge does not apply:

1) When the bets are automatically turned off for the comeout roll (place bets and come bets) - this reduces the average edge per roll by 29%
2) When the dice go off the table .. they call it a "no roll" technically, so maybe that doesn't count to you, but you get paid less often per unit of throw if not technically a roll
3) The house edge does not apply in the instances of pushes and no roll.

The fact that you think that it does indicates you can only thing of the average case instead of specific ones.

Therefore, the house edge does not, in fact, get applied on every roll. Only the winning roll. The whole concept of an average roll is not a single roll, it's a description of multiple aggregate rolls.

It would be as if I stated you were not intelligent because, on average, people on here are not intelligent, and the lack of intelligence happens on each and every member of this forum because you're just (one of) an average member of the forum.

Quote: FleaStiff

>You want bets that last a long time and have a low edge.
Time is not relevant its rolls of the dice.

Out of context, (and I'm not sure what the context is, but having a chance to win was I think the context) you're wrong about this. Time is relevant. If you have eight hours to play craps before you go back home, and you take bets that resolve quickly with the same edge per resolved bet versus taking bets that resolve more slowly, you are more likely to win more money with the bets that resolve more slowly. The entire notion that "time is not relevant" is absolutely ridiculous. Especially in the context of enjoying your time while you are gambling and having a good chance to win money.

Quote: FleaStiff

>Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve.
I rarely take down any bet once made.
Its only PLACE bets that I'm able to take down anyway.



If you do make place bets that you never take down, you should calculate the house edge for such a modified bet for each leg of resolution. For example, 32 across has an infinite array of resolutions theoretically, but just look at up to 50 rolls before a seven, and calculate the weighted house edge for each possible leg of that resolution and report back to me. I am curious if you know the house edge of multiple and individual place bets that aren't taken down. You may be the house's best friend!!!

Any modified non-zero edge bet on the table has a house edge of 100.000% if you place the bet back up each time you lose until you either lose it all or win a billion dollars. I'm sure you already knew this that if you keep gambling you will lose all your money. But saying that you rarely take down bets and that time is not relevant combined together, maybe you didn't?

Most people continue gambling until they lose it all because it is never enough. That's the type of person you don't want to be. Make a target, get there, exclaim, "I WON!!!" color and leave. That's how to win. Stick with your plan.
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MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2013 at 10:01:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Wrong. The house edge does not apply:

1) When the bets are automatically turned off for the comeout roll (place bets and come bets) - this reduces the average edge per roll by 29%
2) When the dice go off the table .. they call it a "no roll" technically, so maybe that doesn't count to you, but you get paid less often per unit of throw if not technically a roll
3) The house edge does not apply in the instances of pushes and no roll.

The fact that you think that it does indicates you can only thing of the average case instead of specific ones.

Therefore, the house edge does not, in fact, get applied on every roll. Only the winning roll. The whole concept of an average roll is not a single roll, it's a description of multiple aggregate rolls.


Actually, the house edge doesn't "get applied" ever. The house edge is just a number computed based on the sum of the products of possible outcomes and their probabilities. It represents the mean (average) value of the distribution, and that mean is inviolate as long as you don't change the rules of the game. The house edge for the place 5 bet is 4%, even someone who never makes the bet (like me). It is always 4% -- it doesn't "become" 4% during certain rolls or under certain conditions.

If you do make the place 5 bet, the house edge of 4% simply represents the expected loss per dollar wagered when the bet is resolved. If you're "off" on the comeout, your bet can't be resolved. If you rolled a 6, 9 or 12, your bet wasn't resolved. If the dice go off the table, your bet wasn't resolved. The only two outcomes that resolve the place 5 bet are 5 and 7, and when the payouts and probabilities for those outcomes are evaluated (+7/5 and -1, respectively; and 4/10 and 6/10, respectively), you end up with 28/50 - 30/50 = -2/50 = -4%.

It's tempting to go one step further and say "well, the place 5 bet takes 36/10 = 3.6 rolls to resolve on average, so the house edge per roll is 4%/3.6 = 1.11%". And that measurement has its place, especially when calculating the aggregate expected loss for a combined bet spread, but that 1.11% does *not* mean that you expect to lose 1.11% of your Place 5 wager each and every roll, because that leads to the incorrect conclusion that the bet loses more money the longer it rides. The 1.11% figure is just one average divided by another average. It should never be used to say "well, my edge *was* such-and-such on some prior roll." Once you have the actual outcome (win, lose, or otherwise), what was expected prior to that roll ceases to be meaningful. If you make a place 5 bet and the next roll is a 4, nothing happens to the place 5 bet. It is not accurate to say that 1.11% of the place 5 wager was just theoretically lost. Similarly, if you make a place 5 bet and the very next roll is 5, you didn't lose 4% or 1.11%, you won 140%. Expected values should only be used to describe the future, not the past.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
beachbumbabs
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September 8th, 2013 at 10:04:14 AM permalink
This is great stuff, Raleigh! I KNEW I liked you! ;)

I see several great ideas to play with in this thread; it's just perfect info for a newbie. Thanks very much everybody for explaining without the slang and shortcuts.

Still a couple of carry-over questions if that's all right.

When the house gives odds behind the line, what is the amount? Say they advertise 3-4-5x odds. Does the max amount you can bet behind the line vary with the point (3x on 6-8, 4x on 5-9, 5x on 4-10) or is that a limiting amount that can be put behind the line (from 3x to 5x your PL bet regardless of the point) or is that somehow linked in to what they pay you, not what you bet. Yes, it's a confusingly written question, but hopefully my confusion helps define your answer and clears it all up. And other places advertise 10x odds or even 100x odds; how does that relate; multiples of the above? What if they only offer 2x odds or 3 x odds without the 3-4-5? What does that mean?

I understand they kill the buy 4-10 bet odds if they take a commission just for betting, not only when you win. This seems pretty underhanded to me. But if I use the lammer on/off method (I like that a lot, Raleigh; I had hoped there was a solution like that available), will they use it only if all bets are placed, or can I use a mix of buy and place bets like the Wizard and DrJohnny are both advocating for best overall odds, which is what I was talking about? I also like the remove outside bets thing after 2 win; that seems like it should overall be a good strategy when I'm not the shooter. If you do that, are you suggesting the move after any 2 including 6-8, or any 2 of the 4?

Thanks all! I'm subscribing to this thread so I don't lose track of it down the road. VERY helpful.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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September 8th, 2013 at 10:45:36 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Actually, the house edge doesn't "get applied" ever. The house edge is just a number computed based on the sum of the products of possible outcomes and their probabilities. It represents the mean (average) value of the distribution, and that mean is inviolate as long as you don't change the rules of the game. The house edge for the place 5 bet is 4%, even someone who never makes the bet (like me). It is always 4% -- it doesn't "become" 4% during certain rolls or under certain conditions.

If you do make the place 5 bet, the house edge of 4% simply represents the expected loss per dollar wagered when the bet is resolved. If you're "off" on the comeout, your bet can't be resolved. If you rolled a 6, 9 or 12, your bet wasn't resolved. If the dice go off the table, your bet wasn't resolved. The only two outcomes that resolve the place 5 bet are 5 and 7, and when the payouts and probabilities for those outcomes are evaluated (+7/5 and -1, respectively; and 4/10 and 6/10, respectively), you end up with 28/50 - 30/50 = -2/50 = -4%.

It's tempting to go one step further and say "well, the place 5 bet takes 36/10 = 3.6 rolls to resolve on average, so the house edge per roll is 4%/3.6 = 1.11%". And that measurement has its place, especially when calculating the aggregate expected loss for a combined bet spread, but that 1.11% does *not* mean that you expect to lose 1.11% of your Place 5 wager each and every roll, because that leads to the incorrect conclusion that the bet loses more money the longer it rides. The 1.11% figure is just one average divided by another average. It should never be used to say "well, my edge *was* such-and-such on some prior roll." Once you have the actual outcome (win, lose, or otherwise), what was expected prior to that roll ceases to be meaningful. If you make a place 5 bet and the next roll is a 4, nothing happens to the place 5 bet. It is not accurate to say that 1.11% of the place 5 wager was just theoretically lost. Similarly, if you make a place 5 bet and the very next roll is 5, you didn't lose 4% or 1.11%, you won 140%. Expected values should only be used to describe the future, not the past.



Great clarification, ME. I almost think it might be helpful to rate the edge per bet resolved for each place bet assuming that a resolution is when the seven hits. I think this would be an eye opener for many. That turns each place bet into a roll that lasts for 6 rolls instead of fewer.

If you consider a bet resolved when only the seven rolls the modified edges are:

$5 4/10 = (1/15) * 6/4 = 10%
$5 5/9 = (1/25) * 6/3.6 = 6.66%
$6 6/8 = (1/66) * 6/3.27272 = 2.78%

Yeah, that's right, bud. Placing the six and waiting for a seven has the same edge per bet as the field. The only difference is how long it takes to resolve. And then we had someone say that "time doesn't matter." So if you buy the argument that time does not matter, that field better who picks up his bet and his win is doing 100% just as good as you because the extra time you get by placing the six or the eight doesn't "matter" according to at least one poster.

These are the bets that most folks take when they are thinking that they are taking bets with lower edges that they never in fact take because they never say "and down" or "six comes down" or anything like that(!!!!)

The other discussions about accuracy, IMO, aren't as important as the psychological fact that most people at the table (and trust me I watch them taking these bets) only take these bets above with edge of 10%, 6.66% and 2.78% while in their minds tell themselves that they are getting lower edges based on what they read or heard.

This is why I routinely look at edge per roll (which is a normalized domain) rather than edge per resolved bet . Because looking at edge per resolved bet for bets that you never resolve that way is very misleading IMO.
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cowboy
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September 8th, 2013 at 10:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


Still a couple of carry-over questions if that's all right.

When the house gives odds behind the line, what is the amount? Say they advertise 3-4-5x odds. Does the max amount you can bet behind the line vary with the point (3x on 6-8, 4x on 5-9, 5x on 4-10) or is that a limiting amount that can be put behind the line (from 3x to 5x your PL bet regardless of the point) or is that somehow linked in to what they pay you, not what you bet. Yes, it's a confusingly written question, but hopefully my confusion helps define your answer and clears it all up. And other places advertise 10x odds or even 100x odds; how does that relate; multiples of the above? What if they only offer 2x odds or 3 x odds without the 3-4-5? What does that mean?


3-4-5x means the most odds you can take on a Point of 4 or 10 is 3 times(x) your Pass Line(PL) bet.
The most on the 5 or 9 is 4x your PL bet and the most on a 6 or 8 is 5x your PL bet.
2x, 3x, 10x and 100x means you can take up to 2x, 3x, 10x or 100 times (respectively) your PL bet on any Point (etc.)

The question on the lammer and recommended "bet off" situations, I leave to the more experienced forum members.
beachbumbabs
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September 8th, 2013 at 11:16:51 AM permalink
Cowboy,

Thank You So Much! So it is a mixed bag on those...I kept going back and forth on it, but that makes some things clearer. The game I was playing was 3x, not 3-4-5. Now, given what you said, they are still, in resolving a win, going to pay odds on the PL and/or the behind-the-line bet, ideally both, right? And the 3-4-5 is to normalize their exposure to those odds?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RaleighCraps
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September 8th, 2013 at 11:41:15 AM permalink
babs (I am too lazy to type it all),

Anything I can do to promote this great game is my duty. It is a game you will many days swear you wish you had never learned, but the good days ARE SO MUCH FUN!

Also, please note that other than the place 6 and 8 bet, the other bets are pretty much frowned on by the pure math people as carrying too much risk of giving your money to the house.

3-4-5x odds refers to the maximum amount of money you can put behind a PL bet. 3x for a 4&10, 4x for a 5&9, and 5x for a 6&8.
The game of craps has some beautiful symmetry to it, and this is one of those time.

Take a $10 PL bet, and maximum odds:

A $10 PL bet with point 4, and max of $30 odds pays --- $70
A $10 PL bet with point 5, and max of $40 odds pays --- $70
A $10 PL bet with point 6, and max of $50 odds pays --- $70

How beautiful is that ?

The first thing I recommend to new players, is study the odds payouts. KNOW THEM COLD. It will really help you understand the game and the bets much easier.
For instance, when the point is 5 or 9, the odds bet pays 3 to 2. So, you always want to put an EVEN amount down as odds, so you will get paid correctly.
Put down $5 in odds on the point of 5, and the dealer will pay you $7. They will round down to an even number, in this case 4 and then figure the correct odds payout. So $4/2 * 3 =$6 and then they will pay you 1:1 on the remaining $1, for a total of $7. Put the real payout should have been $7.50, so you would have just given the house $.50 for free.
Instead, you make a $6 odds bet. This would pay $6/2 *3 = $9. So you get paid an extra $2 when you make the bet EVEN like it is supposed to be.

A house that does a straight 2x, or in the case of Biloxi, 10x odds, means you can bet a maximum of 10x your PL bet, no matter what the point number is.

Same $10 PL bet, point is 4. In a 10x house, you can put $100 in odds, and if a 4 wins, you get paid $210.
if the point is a 6, and you put down $100 in max odds, you would get paid $130.

With the odds bet, the house suffers from the same affects of variance that the players do. So some cheap houses want to limit the damage that a point of 4 or 10 can do to them, by capping the maximum odds at a lower number.

The lammer will work on your Buy and Place bets. Just be clear when you are communicating to your dealer. This is where the dealer tips come in handy! I tip my dealers when the dice come to me. I make a PL bet for them, and put at least 2x odds and usually more on it. It is a decent bet, and the dealers like that I am not wasting their tip money on a bet that probably won't pay off. And if I get on a roll, the dealers make out very nicely.
When you are tipping like that, the dealer WANTS to help you, and they will work with you. They also try to figure out your pattern of betting, and will anticipate what you are going to do. I have had many dealers remind me that I am missing a bet I would have made, and I have had a box man more than once pay me AFTER the roll, when the dealer says "I messed up. Gordy has had this bet up every time, and I missed that it was down." Back to the topic....

Different houses handle the procedure differently. In some places, they just put the lammer on my Buy bet, and announce all bets are OFF. In other houses, they will put the OFF lammer on the Place bet closest to the box I think, and then they will put a second OFF lammer on the BUY bet closest to the box. You just have to see how your casino handles it. Some houses really seem to sweat the procedures, others play very loose, almost lackadaisical at times.

I think the average shooter throws the dice something like 6 times before they 7 out. So, I have done some crude math and decided that if I played all the numbers across, and then took it down after 2 hits, I feel like I would win more often than not. But then I go to the casino, and the first 4 shooter all go PSO, and I have lost 4 full bets across, and have not received a single dime back.

Here is the cold, hard facts about craps. No matter what betting pattern you come up with, the losses will ALWAYS be more than the total wins, in the very long run! That is the math of the game that cannot be overcome. Now, in the short term, anything can happen. You could get to the table, and every one of the next 10 shooters all throw 10x and make 2 points. If that happens, you are probably going to make some money.

The problem with betting across and then taking the bets down after 2 of them win, is NOW WHAT? When are you going to bet again? Are you going to just watch until the next shooter gets the dice? What if this shooter goes on a 1 hour roll? The rest of the table will be hooping it up, and you'll be sulking that you are missing a great roll. And if you do decide to get back in? The craps gods are pissed at you now, and the next roll will be a 7 out costing you your bets, AND your profit that you had tried to lock up. There is no worse feeling than being on a craps table when a monster roll is taking place, and you were not betting it.

Generally, everyone agrees that if you are going to make any bets on a number, the 6 and 8 are the ones to play. The Buy 4 and 10 are next, but you have to put more money on the table (I get the feeling that may not be a factor for you). They don't pay as often, but the 2:1 payout makes up for it, and is nice when it happens.
My philosophy on the Place and Buy bets is the best bet is the number that just got done rolling. Sometimes the 5 and 9 are the numbers that keep showing up, so the math be damned, that is the best bet to be making at that time.

Before you get too caught up in playing all the Buy and Place bets, you need to study a bit about bankroll and risk of ruin. When you start putting $32 across, obviously $100 is not going to last long MOST of the time. That is 3 bets with no winners, and DONE. For $32 across I feel a minimum of 10x buy-in or $320 is required (and that is $320 that you are willing to lose), and 20x or $640 is a much better entry amount. Again, buying in for $640, but changing the way you play after you lose $100 is not what I am saying. I am saying you need to buy in with $640, and be willing to play $32 across until the last nickel is gone.
Basically, you need enough money in your rack, so you can go through the losing streaks that will happen, and still be playing when the good rolls come along. One great roll can get back all of those losses, if you are not yet broke. But then again, the good roll may not come, and now you have lost $640. Refer to second sentence at the start of this post. :-)

The nice thing about craps is you can make it as simple, or as complicated, as you want to make it. Once you understand the game, there are a hundred ways to play. You get to choose how easy or complicated you want to make it.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2013 at 12:07:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Great clarification, ME. I almost think it might be helpful to rate the edge per bet resolved for each place bet assuming that a resolution is when the seven hits. I think this would be an eye opener for many. That turns each place bet into a roll that lasts for 6 rolls instead of fewer.

If you consider a bet resolved when only the seven rolls the modified edges are:

$5 4/10 = (1/15) * 6/4 = 10%
$5 5/9 = (1/25) * 6/3.6 = 6.66%
$6 6/8 = (1/66) * 6/3.27272 = 2.78%

Yeah, that's right, bud. Placing the six and waiting for a seven has the same edge per bet as the field.


No it doesn't. You're comparing apples to oranges; using your method, the "modified edge" on the field -- improperly considering only a losing outcome to be a "resolution" -- is (1/36) * 36/20 = 5%. So no, the "modified edge" on the place 6 bet isn't equal to the "modified edge" on the field bet. It's simply not accurate that a $5 place 6 bet has the same expected loss as a $5 2x/3x field bet, and any calculations that suggest they do are incorrect.

But the point is that you don't need to go through all these mental gymnastics in order to evaluate the expected loss on a wager, and you certainly don't need to invent new calculations that aren't grounded in reality. A place 6 bet does not resolve only when a 7 appears; if it did, the house edge would be 100%. I'm not really sure what you're trying to accomplish with all this. You seem dissatisfied with the correct ways to evaluate the expectation for certain wagers, but proposing incorrect alternatives isn't helpful.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SanchoPanza
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September 8th, 2013 at 4:18:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve. In essence by not taking a resolved bet down, you have a new bet that has a much higher edge per resolved bet (IE: resolved by rolling a seven).

That seems to be an odd statement. How could the odds change with each toss or each resolved bet?
FleaStiff
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September 8th, 2013 at 6:28:01 PM permalink
Quote: cowboy

3-4-5x means the most odds you can take on a Point of 4 or 10 is 3 times(x) your Pass Line(PL) bet.
The most on the 5 or 9 is 4x your PL bet and the most on a 6 or 8 is 5x your PL bet.
2x, 3x, 10x and 100x means you can take up to 2x, 3x, 10x or 100 times (respectively) your PL bet on any Point (etc.)



An odds bet is always voluntary. The advertized "odds factor" is one of a zillion ways that casinos compete with each other. If you are on a cruise ship the odds are likely to be 2x because there ain't nothin' you can do about it. In Vegas where there is a different casino a stagger short walk away, casinos compete on what odds they offer. Sure 100x is advertized but most players there will stick to 5 or perhaps 10x even though they can go up to 100 times their pass line bet. It surely does not mean that you make either no odds bet or you make one that is 100 times your line bet, its pretty much any round number between the two.

3x4x5x is very common because the payout is so easy to calculate and check... the crew and the players and surveillance can all be drunk but its still easy. Mathematically its pretty close to a simple 5x odds factor which requires more calculations to make proper payouts. So 3x4x5x simplifies and speeds up the game.

Rarely is it seen at the table but mathematically it works out that any Bettor's Line Bet should be the amount that lets him maximize his odds bet,,, so that most of his money is at the zero-edge bet and only the lesser amount is at the pass line bet with its house edge. There is alot of hot air about "odds". You may hear players complain that a table is "only 20x odds but all night long those players will probably only make 2x or 3x odds bets and talk all night long about how good 100x odds casinos are.
beachbumbabs
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September 8th, 2013 at 7:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

An odds bet is always voluntary. The advertized "odds factor" is one of a zillion ways that casinos compete with each other. If you are on a cruise ship the odds are likely to be 2x because there ain't nothin' you can do about it. In Vegas where there is a different casino a stagger short walk away, casinos compete on what odds they offer. Sure 100x is advertized but most players there will stick to 5 or perhaps 10x even though they can go up to 100 times their pass line bet. It surely does not mean that you make either no odds bet or you make one that is 100 times your line bet, its pretty much any round number between the two.

3x4x5x is very common because the payout is so easy to calculate and check... the crew and the players and surveillance can all be drunk but its still easy. Mathematically its pretty close to a simple 5x odds factor which requires more calculations to make proper payouts. So 3x4x5x simplifies and speeds up the game.

Rarely is it seen at the table but mathematically it works out that any Bettor's Line Bet should be the amount that lets him maximize his odds bet,,, so that most of his money is at the zero-edge bet and only the lesser amount is at the pass line bet with its house edge. There is alot of hot air about "odds". You may hear players complain that a table is "only 20x odds but all night long those players will probably only make 2x or 3x odds bets and talk all night long about how good 100x odds casinos are.



Thank you, Fleastiff! That clears up even more of my confusion. I'm glad there are so many factors, because it seemed simple on the face of it and really isn't. I was getting frustrated.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AlanMendelson
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September 8th, 2013 at 8:39:31 PM permalink
I just want to comment about the table minimums at Caesars. While they sometimes have a $10 table, it is unusual. Most tables are $25. Over Labor Day weekend when the casino was jammed the only spot I could find was at the single $50 table. I hadn't seen a $50 table at Caesars in years but there it was.

In the overnight hours there is usually just one table operating and it is always $25.
djatc
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September 9th, 2013 at 12:40:51 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I just want to comment about the table minimums at Caesars. While they sometimes have a $10 table, it is unusual. Most tables are $25. Over Labor Day weekend when the casino was jammed the only spot I could find was at the single $50 table. I hadn't seen a $50 table at Caesars in years but there it was.

In the overnight hours there is usually just one table operating and it is always $25.



It seems to me the craps table closest to registration/front desk is always $10 whenever I go.
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AxelWolf
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September 9th, 2013 at 5:02:11 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

It seems to me the craps table closest to registration/front desk is always $10 whenever I go.

How would you know? According to your self imposed bounty your supposed to be staying away from any -EV games. certainly you have no reason to be looking at the table minimum unless your thinking of playing. I can't wait to catch you.

Certainly you don't want Evenbob to say I told you so.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SanchoPanza
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September 9th, 2013 at 5:34:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Too many people look at edge per bet resolved and yet never take bets down after they resolve. In essence by not taking a resolved bet down, you have a new bet that has a much higher edge per resolved bet (IE: resolved by rolling a seven).

Quote: SanchoPanza

That seems to be an odd statement. How could the odds change with each toss or each resolved bet?

So it seems that we won't be honored with an answer to this simple yet startlingly enigmatic query.
Ahigh
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September 9th, 2013 at 9:22:34 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

So it seems that we won't be honored with an answer to this simple yet startlingly enigmatic query.



Edge per roll multiplied by the average number of rolls for the bet is the edge per bet.

Most people place bets and they don't ever take them down.

I am surprised you and ME didn't understand what I was saying.

If you fully understood and then had a problem that would be one thing.

But I think there was a failure to understand what I was saying.

We've had this problem before that the delineation of what is a bet in most people's minds has more to do with the felt than the goal of the person trying to win money.

If you have never ever taken a bet down after it has won, then you are not really taking the bet you think you're taking.

That's my point.

You're betting that (for a six or an eight) you get two sixes or two eights before a seven if you don't take it down. Otherwise, you don't win much do you?
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MathExtremist
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September 9th, 2013 at 10:37:03 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Most people place bets and they don't ever take them down.

I am surprised you and ME didn't understand what I was saying.


I understood exactly what you were saying, the problem is that it's incorrect. You were using an unequal comparison -- the idea of a "bet stays until it loses" interpretation for one wager vs. "bet stays until it either wins or loses" interpretation for another. You can interpret wagers however you want, but you need to do it equivalently for all of them in order to make a proper comparison. You wrongly equated the edge of the field bet to the place 6 bet on the basis of non-equivalent calculations.

You derived a 2.78% "house edge" for the place 6 bet using some mental gymnastics, but it's not really accurate to say that a single place 6 bet has a 2.78% house edge. It's certainly not equivalent to the 2.78% house edge on a single field bet, as you stated. What's really going on is that the physical chips from a place 6 bet can expect to be re-wagered 1.83 times before they are removed by the dealer on a loss, and 1.83 * the correct house edge on the place 6 bet (1.52%) = 2.78%. But so what? "Until it loses" is an artificial stopping point; most players actually put up more money after their place bets lose anyway. Each time a bet is resolved -- win or lose -- the next roll is a new bet, regardless of whether the player has to put new chips on the wagering area or whether the dealer left up the chips from a previous win.

The right way to evaluate wagers is not based on a percentage, but on dollar amounts. There is no confusion that a $6 place 6 bet costs 9.1c on average and that you can expect about 22 such bets per hour (off on comeout, 100 rolls/hour) for a total theoretical cost of $2/hour. That compares favorably with a $5 line bet at 30 bets per hour at about $2.12/hour. That's right -- a $6 place bet loses less than a $5 line bet over the course of an hour, despite the greater wager and greater house edge, because of the large percentage of the time the bet is not working on the comeout roll. That's not surprising in hindsight, but there it is quantified.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ahigh
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September 9th, 2013 at 11:06:09 AM permalink
Well, without arguing about the wording, I think we can both agree that if you have $96 working on the six for six times as many rolls as it is working on the field, you will lose the exact same amount of money in the long run.

IE: 0.0046296296 == 2.78787878 / 6

I think the other stuff that you're arguing about is purely semantics from a non-math-professional or non-statistics-professional type of player.

Having a chance to win by placing a bet on the 6 and waiting until it's gone is the same as placing the same money on the field and picking it up if it wins.

Pragmatically.

IE: in the long run you will lose 6 times as much money per roll in the field as on the six, but in the long run most people bet the six place bet for many more rolls than the field, which is more likely to get picked up than someone saying "bring down my 6/8."
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SanchoPanza
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September 9th, 2013 at 11:15:31 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Well, without arguing about the wording, I think we can both agree that if you have $96 working on the six for six times as many rolls as it is working on the field, you will lose the exact same amount of money in the long run. IE: 0.0046296296 == 2.78787878 / 6 I think the other stuff that you're arguing about is purely semantics from a non-math-professional or non-statistics-professional type of player.

If reducing the house edge is such an important goal, then it would seem wise to stop playing after, say, one roll. Or even better yet for the purposes of that goal, zero rolls.
MathExtremist
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September 9th, 2013 at 11:40:33 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Well, without arguing about the wording, I think we can both agree that if you have $96 working on the six for six times as many rolls as it is working on the field, you will lose the exact same amount of money in the long run.

IE: 0.0046296296 == 2.78787878 / 6

I think the other stuff that you're arguing about is purely semantics from a non-math-professional or non-statistics-professional type of player.

Having a chance to win by placing a bet on the 6 and waiting until it's gone is the same as placing the same money on the field and picking it up if it wins.

Pragmatically.


Not really -- the distributions are totally different. That's like saying betting on "Even" and betting on "13" in roulette is the same. Same expected loss, but very different distributions. And have you ever seen someone make a $96 field bet? Have you ever seen someone making place 6 bets take them down after counting the number of rolls?

What I'm really arguing is that making comparisons of the sort above is not relevant. No craps player (statistician or otherwise) thinks "I'm going to make a field bet for the next five rolls because it's theoretically less expensive than making a place 6 bet for the next 31 rolls." EV per roll is only relevant if you keep the bet up until it resolves, and even then, it completely ignores the variance of the distribution.

What you should be looking at, if you want to be practically useful in a related line of inquiry, is how to minimize theoretical loss while maximizing the apparent wager amount. That would be useful for maximizing comp value. Throw in variance and you'll be able to calculate the probabilities of a given strategy actually winning excluding comps and actually winning including comps over a 2 or 4 hour session. That'd be a worthwhile exercise. What you're doing now, not so much.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
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