# Risk of Ruin Calculator

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August 2nd, 2013 at 10:46:38 PM permalink | |

AxelWolf Member since: Oct 10, 2012 Threads: 87 Posts: 8023 | that means the game returns only 99%+ of your money back in the long run. for every $1 you bet you will get back 99 cents (with perfect play) its really 99.54% return 54% of the time that you bet you end up with nothing no pay back at all. I think you are reading it as if 99 percent of the time you will win a hand or session. ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪ |

August 2nd, 2013 at 11:54:25 PM permalink | |

dicesitter Member since: Jan 17, 2013 Threads: 29 Posts: 858 | Well I bet according to the amount of money I have set aside to play craps with, by that i mean i have an account that i play craps from, my winnings go back in and i play from there. I dont have a risk of ruin because i dont over bet my bank roll, and i understand my weakness's and my strengths as a player. dicesetter |

August 3rd, 2013 at 6:31:23 AM permalink | |

Mission146AdministratorMember since: May 15, 2012 Threads: 87 Posts: 7235 | It means that, over the long run, for every dollar you bet you will lose less than $0.01. It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be. Vultures can't be choosers. |

August 3rd, 2013 at 8:15:28 AM permalink | |

dicesitter Member since: Jan 17, 2013 Threads: 29 Posts: 858 | Well the long run is made up of alot of short runs. MOst people including myself understand the math of the game, and it is math in the looooooooooooooooooooooooooong run that indicates stuff. However unless you have an endless amount of money, the short run can make sure you never reach the long run. The idea that if you bet a pass line bet with odds you will only lose $1.41 out of every $100 you bet or if you place only the 6 & 8 you will lose only $1.52 for every $100 you bet sounds really good, hell this is not bad at all. BUT......... what if you only have $200 and you bet $22 starting and the first 13 players dont make a hand of 3 rolls and no one makes a pass line winner, what was the per centage of your loss, was it a combined 1.46% ... no it was 100% While the math of the game is important, the risk of ruin has to do with how much you have to play with and how much of that you bet at one time, if you bet to much relative to what you have, the math of the game will not save you. In one of the craps books,i am not sure it may be Franks or Sharpshooters. there is a line which says the only difference between a person that plays craps, and one that plays craps alot is that the person that plays alot....... can loss...it all!!!!! That is a very true statement. Dont over bet your pocketbook. Dicesitter |

August 3rd, 2013 at 1:04:58 PM permalink | |

EvenBob Member since: Jul 18, 2010 Threads: 392 Posts: 17878 |
Definition of 'Risk Of Ruin' The probability of an individual losing.. gambling money.. to the point at which continuing on is no longer considered an option to recover losses. Risk of ruin is calculated by taking into account the probability of winning.. the probability of incurring losses, and the portion of an individual's capital base that is in play or at risk. Also known as the "probability of ruin". http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-of-ruin.asp "It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal |

August 3rd, 2013 at 1:16:17 PM permalink | |

EvenBob Member since: Jul 18, 2010 Threads: 392 Posts: 17878 | Calculators like this are misleading. It says if you have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about a 1% ROR. What it doesn't explain is the variance involved. You could easily play for days in that scenario before you were ahead by one unit. If you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65% win rate, your ROR is also about 1%. But the variance is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first 15min most of the time. So all things considered, the calculator doesn't mean much. "It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal |

August 6th, 2013 at 6:15:54 PM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

7craps Member since: Jan 23, 2010 Threads: 17 Posts: 1437 | The Ruin probabilities are accurate if you use them properly. even money payouts and equal wagers. Just not telling or showing the whole or complete picture that includes the time element. Alan Shank brought this up in many of his posts too. Just like all the house edge and ev only pushers that also leave out the variance. Exactly sounds about right My Excel The formula can be found here for the average number of trials http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/calculating-a-hold-percentage-1230 of course this is a 'wait time' distribution so 'average' can mean almost anything is not intuitive. average is about 40.9 trials by the formula and about 88% chance it happens by the 40th trial table showing part of the distribution (table created by a transition matrix Markov Chain) always a chance one never hits the target or hits ruin.
2.4% probability of still going at 500 trials also can be done easily in Excel N N or less prob no. I think you misread the value. yep. average is about 3.3 trials by the formula table showing part of the distribution sure nice to see the whole picture that one might encounter.
2.3% probability of still going at 20 trials also done in Excel (cumulative distribution for # of games until target or ruin) N N or less prob but for many, they are very very happy with one value from any calculator that tells them everything THEY wants to know. you and I are in the majority here. thanks, now my new computer is all set up the way I like it winsome johnny (not Win some johnny) |

January 26th, 2014 at 6:59:15 AM permalink | |

katastrof78 Member since: Jan 25, 2014 Threads: 0 Posts: 1 | Dear; 7craps You excel spreadsheet has been very revealing. could you please Will you send me your excel spreadsheet ? thank you for now... |