August 2nd, 2013 at 10:46:38 PM
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that means the game returns only 99%+ of your money back in the long run. for every $1 you bet you will get back 99 cents (with perfect play)

its really 99.54% return 54% of the time that you bet you end up with nothing no pay back at all. I think you are reading it as if 99 percent of the time you will win a hand or session.

its really 99.54% return 54% of the time that you bet you end up with nothing no pay back at all. I think you are reading it as if 99 percent of the time you will win a hand or session.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

August 2nd, 2013 at 11:54:25 PM
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Well I bet according to the amount of money I have set aside to play craps with,

by that i mean i have an account that i play craps from, my winnings go back in and i play from

there.

I dont have a risk of ruin because i dont over bet my bank roll, and i understand my weakness's

and my strengths as a player.

dicesetter

by that i mean i have an account that i play craps from, my winnings go back in and i play from

there.

I dont have a risk of ruin because i dont over bet my bank roll, and i understand my weakness's

and my strengths as a player.

dicesetter

August 3rd, 2013 at 6:31:23 AM
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It means that, over the long run, for every dollar you bet you will lose less than $0.01.

It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be.

It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be.

Vultures can't be choosers.

August 3rd, 2013 at 8:15:28 AM
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Well the long run is made up of alot of short runs.

MOst people including myself understand the math of the game, and it is math

in the looooooooooooooooooooooooooong run that indicates stuff.

However unless you have an endless amount of money, the short run can make

sure you never reach the long run.

The idea that if you bet a pass line bet with odds you will only lose $1.41 out

of every $100 you bet or if you place only the 6 & 8 you will lose only $1.52

for every $100 you bet sounds really good, hell this is not bad at all.

BUT......... what if you only have $200 and you bet $22 starting and the first 13 players

dont make a hand of 3 rolls and no one makes a pass line winner, what was the

per centage of your loss, was it a combined 1.46% ... no it was 100%

While the math of the game is important, the risk of ruin has to do with how much

you have to play with and how much of that you bet at one time, if you bet to

much relative to what you have, the math of the game will not save you.

In one of the craps books,i am not sure it may be Franks or Sharpshooters. there is a

line which says the only difference between a person that plays craps, and one that plays

craps alot is that the person that plays alot....... can loss...it all!!!!!

That is a very true statement.

Dont over bet your pocketbook.

Dicesitter

MOst people including myself understand the math of the game, and it is math

in the looooooooooooooooooooooooooong run that indicates stuff.

However unless you have an endless amount of money, the short run can make

sure you never reach the long run.

The idea that if you bet a pass line bet with odds you will only lose $1.41 out

of every $100 you bet or if you place only the 6 & 8 you will lose only $1.52

for every $100 you bet sounds really good, hell this is not bad at all.

BUT......... what if you only have $200 and you bet $22 starting and the first 13 players

dont make a hand of 3 rolls and no one makes a pass line winner, what was the

per centage of your loss, was it a combined 1.46% ... no it was 100%

While the math of the game is important, the risk of ruin has to do with how much

you have to play with and how much of that you bet at one time, if you bet to

much relative to what you have, the math of the game will not save you.

In one of the craps books,i am not sure it may be Franks or Sharpshooters. there is a

line which says the only difference between a person that plays craps, and one that plays

craps alot is that the person that plays alot....... can loss...it all!!!!!

That is a very true statement.

Dont over bet your pocketbook.

Dicesitter

August 3rd, 2013 at 1:04:58 PM
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Quote:Mission146

It has nothing to do with your actual probability of winning in a given session, whatever your win goal, the higher it gets, the lower your probability of winning an individual session will be.

Definition of 'Risk Of Ruin'

The probability of an individual losing.. gambling money.. to the point at which continuing on is no longer considered an option to recover losses. Risk of ruin is calculated by taking into account the probability of winning.. the probability of incurring losses, and the portion of an individual's capital base that is in play or at risk. Also known as the "probability of ruin".

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-of-ruin.asp

"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal

August 3rd, 2013 at 1:16:17 PM
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Calculators like this are misleading. It says if you

have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit

profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about

a 1% ROR. What it doesn't explain is the variance

involved. You could easily play for days in that

scenario before you were ahead by one unit.

If you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65%

win rate, your ROR is also about 1%. But the variance

is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first

15min most of the time. So all things considered, the

calculator doesn't mean much.

have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit

profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about

a 1% ROR. What it doesn't explain is the variance

involved. You could easily play for days in that

scenario before you were ahead by one unit.

If you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65%

win rate, your ROR is also about 1%. But the variance

is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first

15min most of the time. So all things considered, the

calculator doesn't mean much.

"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal

August 6th, 2013 at 6:15:54 PM
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The Ruin probabilities are accurate if you use them properly.Quote:EvenBobCalculators like this are misleading.

even money payouts and equal wagers.

Just not telling or showing the whole or complete picture that includes the time element.

Alan Shank brought this up in many of his posts too.

Just like all the house edge and ev only pushers that also leave out the variance.

Exactly

sounds about rightQuote:EvenBobIt says if you

have 50 units to risk and want to make a 1 unit

profit and have win rate of 50.5%, you have about

a 1% ROR.

My Excel

The formula can be found here for the average number of trialsQuote:EvenBobWhat it doesn't explain is the variance

involved. You could easily play for days in that

scenario before you were ahead by one unit.

http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/calculating-a-hold-percentage-1230

of course this is a 'wait time' distribution so 'average' can mean almost anything is not intuitive.

average is about 40.9 trials by the formula and about 88% chance it happens by the 40th trial

table showing part of the distribution (table created by a transition matrix Markov Chain)

always a chance one never hits the target or hits ruin.

hit target | ruin | trial | in progress |
---|---|---|---|

0.505 | 0 | 1 | 0.495 |

0.505 | 0 | 2 | 0.495 |

0.631237 | 0 | 3 | 0.368763 |

0.69435 | 0 | 5 | 0.30565 |

0.761397 | 0 | 10 | 0.238603 |

0.831946 | 0 | 20 | 0.168054 |

0.863958 | 0 | 30 | 0.136042 |

0.883211 | 0 | 40 | 0.116789 |

0.896408 | 0 | 50 | 0.103592 |

0.929306 | 1.53E-07 | 100 | 0.070693847 |

0.952615 | 0.000100775 | 200 | 0.047284225 |

0.973177 | 0.00316669 | 500 | 0.02365631 |

0.98309 | 0.0081077 | 1000 | 0.0088023 |

2.4% probability of still going at 500 trials

also can be done easily in Excel

N N or less prob

1 0.505

2 0.505

3 0.631237375

4 0.631237375

5 0.694349751

6 0.694349751

7 0.733791041

8 0.733791041

9 0.761397183

10 0.761397183

11 0.782099719

12 0.782099719

13 0.798364371

14 0.798364371

15 0.811578079

16 0.811578079

17 0.822588402

18 0.822588402

19 0.83194624

20 0.83194624

21 0.840027201

22 0.840027201

23 0.847097335

24 0.847097335

25 0.853351058

26 0.853351058

27 0.858934182

28 0.858934182

29 0.863958491

30 0.863958491

31 0.868511315

32 0.868511315

33 0.872662005

34 0.872662005

35 0.876466423

36 0.876466423

37 0.879970142

38 0.879970142

39 0.883210758

40 0.883210758

41 0.8862196

42 0.8862196

43 0.889023014

44 0.889023014

45 0.891643335

46 0.891643335

47 0.894099639

48 0.894099639

49 0.896408335

50 0.896408335

no. I think you misread the value.Quote:EvenBobIf you have 10 units to risk to make 1 unit and a 65%

win rate, your ROR is also about 1%.

yep. average is about 3.3 trials by the formulaQuote:EvenBobBut the variance

is very low, you could be one unit ahead in the first

15min most of the time. So all things considered, the

calculator doesn't mean much.

table showing part of the distribution

sure nice to see the whole picture that one might encounter.

11 | 0 | exact trial | in progress | 1 in | trial |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

0.65 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.35 | 2.86 | 1 |

0.65 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 2.86 | 2 |

0.797875 | 0 | 0.147875 | 0.202125 | 4.95 | 3 |

0.797875 | 0 | 0 | 0.202125 | 4.95 | 4 |

0.865158 | 0 | 0.067283 | 0.134842 | 7.42 | 5 |

0.865158 | 0 | 0 | 0.134842 | 7.42 | 6 |

0.903425 | 0 | 0.038267 | 0.096575 | 10.35 | 7 |

0.903425 | 0 | 0 | 0.096575 | 10.35 | 8 |

0.927802 | 0 | 0.024377 | 0.072198 | 13.85 | 9 |

0.927802 | 2.75855E-05 | 0 | 0.072170415 | 13.86 | 10 |

0.944438 | 2.75855E-05 | 0.016636 | 0.055534415 | 18.01 | 11 |

0.944438 | 8.40667E-05 | 0 | 0.055477933 | 18.03 | 12 |

0.956334 | 8.40667E-05 | 0.011896 | 0.043581933 | 22.95 | 13 |

0.956334 | 0.000159736 | 0 | 0.043506264 | 22.99 | 14 |

0.965129 | 0.000159736 | 0.008795 | 0.034711264 | 28.81 | 15 |

0.965129 | 0.000244186 | 0 | 0.034626814 | 28.88 | 16 |

0.971798 | 0.000244186 | 0.006669 | 0.027957814 | 35.77 | 17 |

0.971798 | 0.000329606 | 0 | 0.027872394 | 35.88 | 18 |

0.976957 | 0.000329606 | 0.005159 | 0.022713394 | 44.03 | 19 |

0.976957 | 0.000411055 | 0 | 0.022631945 | 44.19 | 20 |

2.3% probability of still going at 20 trials

also done in Excel

(cumulative distribution for # of games until target or ruin)

N N or less prob

1 0.65

2 0.65

3 0.797875

4 0.797875

5 0.865158125

6 0.865158125

7 0.903425402

8 0.903425402

9 0.927801658

10 0.927829243

11 0.944466038

12 0.944522519

13 0.956417827

14 0.956493496

15 0.96528859

16 0.96537304

17 0.972042652

18 0.972128073

19 0.977287018

20 0.977368466

21 0.981422687

22 0.981497459

23 0.984724726

24 0.984791644

25 0.987387617

26 0.987446459

27 0.989552396

28 0.989603493

29 0.991323607

30 0.991367578

but for many, they are very very happy with one value from any calculator

that tells them everything THEY wants to know.

you and I are in the majority here.

thanks, now my new computer is all set up the way I like it

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

January 26th, 2014 at 6:59:15 AM
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Dear; 7craps

You excel spreadsheet has been very revealing.

could you please Will you send me your excel spreadsheet ?

thank you for now...

You excel spreadsheet has been very revealing.

could you please Will you send me your excel spreadsheet ?

thank you for now...