Bet the Bust

December 29th, 2011 at 6:01:57 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 631
Posts: 11689
This is a side bet I noticed at the Palace Station today. It pays if the dealer busts and the odds vary according to the dealer's up card.

I wrote up my analysis on my Odds site. Please have a look. I welcome all comments, corrections, and questions.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:03:00 PM permalink
FleaStiff
Member since: Oct 19, 2009
Threads: 176
Posts: 9188
Opens in Firefox with the text missing from the rightmost two inches of the screen.

Why do you start out with telling people when the bet is made instead of starting out telling them what the bet is?

>It is not difficult to see that this side bet would be very countable.
It is also not difficult to see that this side bet would be utterly of no use to card counters. After all them tables, I'm seeing red. Any textual summary? Why is it easy to count? Would we be looking for high cards to be remaining or low cards to be remaining? What was the max on the side bet?
December 29th, 2011 at 11:16:12 PM permalink
RogerKint
Member since: Dec 5, 2011
Threads: 14
Posts: 565
FleaStiff, I could be wrong but it appears to me that we are looking for high cards since it's called "bet the bust".
December 30th, 2011 at 1:38:10 AM permalink
FleaStiff
Member since: Oct 19, 2009
Threads: 176
Posts: 9188
Quote: RogerKint
FleaStiff, I could be wrong but it appears to me that we are looking for high cards since it's called "bet the bust".

Ah, but a dealer is most likely to bust if his Upcard is 2 thru 6. So we would a low Upcard and a remaining deck full of high cards.
December 30th, 2011 at 3:38:47 AM permalink
Paigowdan
Member since: Apr 28, 2010
Threads: 101
Posts: 4598
Quote: FleaStiff
Ah, but a dealer is most likely to bust if his Upcard is 2 thru 6. So we would [look for] a low Upcard and a remaining deck full of high cards.

Exactly.
What I dislike about the bet is that a number of payouts (busting on Ace, 2, 3, and 7) are partial/fractional payouts. This causes change-making and "dealer math," with a resulting reduction in hands-per-hour and increased dealer errors. The bet should have been configured with a combination of even money payouts and non-fractional payouts (1:1, 2:1, 3;1, etc.) That could have been done, and that should have been done.

Also, there is the "bust it" bet, and the "dealer-bust-21" bet. A crowded field, dealer bust side bets for BJ. Plus, it's countable.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
December 30th, 2011 at 4:33:55 AM permalink
FleaStiff
Member since: Oct 19, 2009
Threads: 176
Posts: 9188
Oh I get it... this has nothing to do with a female blackjack dealer's anatomy. I must have been thinking of those rich hotties.

Fractional payouts and dealer math... wow, next thing you will tell me is that it will soak up the chips that are most often used as Tokes and the dealers will really be mad.

Reduction in hands per hour... that is good for the non-counting player, his comps are not being reduced because his theo remains the same.
December 30th, 2011 at 5:11:40 AM permalink
DJTeddyBear
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 144
Posts: 8243
I would have expected to also see a table showing the dealer bust probability for S17.

I don't know how valuable the 8 deck return table is, unless you're sure that the payouts will never change. Instead, or in addition, I would have provided a simple formula to calculate that.


Note: For those of you that don't know how to calculate it, here's the formula: ( Pay + 1 ) * Probability - 1 = Return



Why is your picture, from another casino, showing a typo, on that page?

Oh, wait. I just realized that this page has a LOT of side bets on it. In that case, I'd put extra space before each bet's heading, as well as space and a header above the photo.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
December 30th, 2011 at 5:22:45 AM permalink
DJTeddyBear
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 144
Posts: 8243
Quote: Paigowdan
The bet should have been configured with a combination of even money payouts and non-fractional payouts (1:1, 2:1, 3;1, etc.) That could have been done, and that should have been done.
The only way to do that would be to offer the bet PRIOR to dealing, and let some of the paylines have a slight player advantage, (but negative overall), or have VERY unfavorable house edges on the lines that are now fractional.

I'm kinda surprised they didn't opt for the former, but even more surprised they didn't opt for the latter.....
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
December 30th, 2011 at 10:28:43 AM permalink
Tiltpoul
Member since: May 5, 2010
Threads: 32
Posts: 1573
And in addition to Palace Station, I believe I saw this bet at Sam's Town in Tunica, MS. I COULD be mistaken on this, so if anybody else could confirm this that would be great.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
December 30th, 2011 at 11:57:36 AM permalink
Paigowdan
Member since: Apr 28, 2010
Threads: 101
Posts: 4598
Quote: FleaStiff
Oh I get it... this has nothing to do with a female blackjack dealer's anatomy. I must have been thinking of those rich hotties.

Fractional payouts and dealer math... wow, next thing you will tell me is that it will soak up the chips that are most often used as Tokes and the dealers will really be mad.

To be honest with you, you're right. Dealers do try to kill off any game or bet where they fear or mistakenly believe that'll hurt tokes. This is exactly how some of these morons think, I kid you not. Seen it, hate it, don't do it. In some places, the inmates run the asylum. Annoying, shocking.

Quote: FleaStiff
Reduction in hands per hour... that is good for the non-counting player, his comps are not being reduced because his theo remains the same.

Yes it is. But some games adjust their HPH (hands per hour), so the disadvantage is built back into the game. Casinos do consider this.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.