Does previous results at a blackjack table contribute to your decision to sit down and play?

In a previous blog post started by SBFERN805 titled "I agree 100%, I made the following comment: "Try scouting the tables. Watch 8-10 hands. Look for the dealer to break 4 or 5 times. Look to see if the dealer keeps making his/her hands. Look at the chip rack is it full, or does it need a fill. Get to know the dealers, ask them if they are hot. At my home casino which is one of the largest I know at least half of the dealers on the evening shift. Many will tell me to keep walking with out me even asking. While none of these conditions is a gurantee it is a good start". Teddys commented on my comment with the following "Yep, because what happened in the last couple of hours is sure to determine how it will go in the future. C'mon..." I have been playing Bj for 35 years and I have seen tables stay cold or hot for up to 5-6 hours or more. I stand by my suggestion particularly since SBFERN805 was only using basic strategy, we hope. And even for AP's correct me if I am wrong if you are not back counting, you will not sit down at a table where everyone is getting smoked.

Unless you are counting from a shoe-dealt game and know there is a good count, it does not matter. I decide where to sit based on minimums, smoking, crowd at table, and if one of the "low" tables happens to be open.

I will concece I have known dealers who insist the table is "hot" or "not." I have known delaers who insist their third-base play affects the dealer bust card. I try to not even argue about it anymore, just a Zen-like calm reply of "that's nice" unless they seem open to reason. This shows that dealers, while they should know better, are merely a cross-section of the rest of society.

Last time I played my $100 buy in was almost depleted playing $10 flat very quickly. Playing by myself, but then another player joined in and I welcomed him and said maybe he could change my luck. He started losing but my luck did a 180. At one point I flipped him a red, which he naturally tried to refuse, said I didn't have to do that. But he accepted it after I explained that I wasn't feeling sorry for him, I wanted to do it because he had changed my luck. Next hand for me - BJ. I laughed and pointed out that not only had I immediately won back the gift, but threefold. Anyway, I didn't play much longer, cashed out up 30 bucks or so, 5 to the dealer and everybody was happy except he was still down. I saw the dealer later, and she remembered it and said he actually ended up winning a little. To add to the story, he had just come from Palace Station where he had dropped $1600. I had my Wizard on the table, and he asked about it, and I had him take a look at it and also asked if he even new how to play correctly. He noticed a few things that were not matching his play, and sort of hinted that maybe he was smarter than my chart. I think I convinced him, finally, to go to WOO and PRINT ONE FOR HIMSELF IN COLOR! Initially he was questioning the validity, but I pounded into his head that
a computer is much smarter in some ways than him, so trust it - it has played every dealable hand and determined precisely the most beneficial strategy. To make a long story short, heck no, I'm not going to delete all of this.

Quote: AZDuffman

Unless you are counting from a shoe-dealt game and know there is a good count, it does not matter. I decide where to sit based on minimums, smoking, crowd at table, and if one of the "low" tables happens to be open.

I will concece I have known dealers who insist the table is "hot" or "not." I have known delaers who insist their third-base play affects the dealer bust card. I try to not even argue about it anymore, just a Zen-like calm reply of "that's nice" unless they seem open to reason. This shows that dealers, while they should know better, are merely a cross-section of the rest of society.

I've had occasionally a dealer question my play, "are you sure?" Well, not personally, but the Wizard is sure so that's good enough for me. Looks like Duff and I are both NO. Come on, anyone stup..........anyone voting otherwise?

If the players are winning, then it's less-likely they're being cheated. Beyond that, less grumbling and chanting, etc, to "have to" listen to.

Truth be known, I'm never checking to see how the players are doing because I already know I don't want to join them. Just as I HATE to play on a super slow VP machine, I will look for a bored dealer who will appreciate my waking him up to deal.

If the table is losing, there is > 50 % chance the shoe is in positive count. APs who just want to play can use this to sit down if they didn't get a chance to back count.

However, this effect is very small. Past results have no other effect on future results.

Quote: dwheatley

If the table is losing, there is > 50 % chance the shoe is in positive count. APs who just want to play can use this to sit down if they didn't get a chance to back count.

However, this effect is very small. Past results have no other effect on future results.

I'm not going to contemplate this too intensively, I can't, but with the quality of play that so many people exhibit they are also down because they forgot or were afraid to double their 11 v dealer 6. Your point was pretty sharp in theory but in reality................

Quote: Garnabby

If the players are winning, then it's less-likely they're being cheated. Beyond that, less grumbling and chanting, etc, to "have to" listen to.

Really? I do not even consider the possibility of being cheated by a casino I play. Is that too naive?

Quote: dm

I'm not going to contemplate this too intensively, I can't, but with the quality of play that so many people exhibit they are also down because they forgot or were afraid to double their 11 v dealer 6. Your point was pretty sharp in theory but in reality................

Even if they do not play perfect strategy. As long as it is the same play when the count is negative and when it is positive, you are likely to win more often in the latter case.

I agree, that it might be (very slightly) beneficial to join the "cold" table, where people have been losing, because that means that there are probably more high cards left in the shoe.

So, I would vote for "yes" ... but I won't because it would probably be taken as if I am advocating looking for "hot" tables, while I would actually much sooner look for a "cold" one.

Quote: aluisio

Really? I do not even consider the possibility of being cheated by a casino I play. Is that too naive?

I don't either, but I agree with his logic.

Quote: weaselman

Even if they do not play perfect strategy. As long as it is the same play when the count is negative and when it is positive, you are likely to win more often in the latter case.

I agree, that it might be (very slightly) beneficial to join the "cold" table, where people have been losing, because that means that there are probably more high cards left in the shoe.

So, I would vote for "yes" ... but I won't because it would probably be taken as if I am advocating looking for "hot" tables, while I would actually much sooner look for a "cold" one.

OK, I agree, you out-logiced me. But even if you have a plus EV table there, you won't know, so it's a painful way to minimize your losses or your wins. That's my best retort, having admitted defeat, and I doubt that it makes much sense. But that still doesn't mean I would vote yes, unless all tables had the same rules, the same number of players that all smelled tolerably. And I might choose a table that had a fabulous hot chick sitting at it, even if or maybe because she had a nice stack.

Quote: weaselman

Even if they do not play perfect strategy. As long as it is the same play when the count is negative and when it is positive, you are likely to win more often in the latter case.

I agree, that it might be (very slightly) beneficial to join the "cold" table, where people have been losing, because that means that there are probably more high cards left in the shoe.

So, I would vote for "yes" ... but I won't because it would probably be taken as if I am advocating looking for "hot" tables, while I would actually much sooner look for a "cold" one.

OK, Mr. smarter than me guy, which "yes" of the THREE would you have voted for? How's that for recouping a minute part of my self-esteem, or does he have an answer that will make me look even stupider?

Quote: dm

I've had occasionally a dealer question my play, "are you sure?" Well, not personally, but the Wizard is sure so that's good enough for me. Looks like Duff and I are both NO. Come on, anyone stup..........anyone voting otherwise?

Well, a good dealer should see how sharp you are and know what your play should be. Heck, at the MC nights I have had players just tell me to play their hands when they left. While that won't happen in a real casino, dealers know you might have made an error. They know players who know how to play vs idiots who think they invented the game. Your reaction will determine if they help again. I've had dealers ask if I wanted to double soft-17 against a delaer 6. When they realize I know what I am doing they understand I will make an agressive move or two even if off BS.

Still, I think if they only hired dealers who had no superstition and trustes BS the minimums would rise to $100 and the poor guys would work 16 hour shifts for how few would be left.

Quote: AZDuffman

Well, a good dealer should see how sharp you are and know what your play should be. Heck, at the MC nights I have had players just tell me to play their hands when they left. While that won't happen in a real casino, dealers know you might have made an error. They know players who know how to play vs idiots who think they invented the game. Your reaction will determine if they help again. I've had dealers ask if I wanted to double soft-17 against a delaer 6. When they realize I know what I am doing they understand I will make an agressive move or two even if off BS.

Still, I think if they only hired dealers who had no superstition and trustes BS the minimums would rise to $100 and the poor guys would work 16 hour shifts for how few would be left.

I have identified many more bad dealers than good, but most of the good dealers don't give you hints either way. I've had dealers checking out my and Wiz's strategy chart to see how they can possibly be wrong. Coolest dealer I ever had was at Ellis. When he saw me glance down at my chart, he would tell me what it said and he was right on. Great personality, too, but he just didn't have the appearance that would earn him a spot at Venetian. But, what an entertainer-the only male dealer I ever thought added a lot to the experience.

We play for enjoyment, right? And we understand that the whole idea of "hot and cold" is a narrative invented by our minds, a way of understanding the world that doesn't really apply to this situation, but nevertheless is part of who we are.

Since it really doesn't matter, don't deny your instinct. Play the way you want. I pass on cold tables because it does not make me feel good to sit down at them. Simple as that.

Quote: dm

OK, I agree, you out-logiced me. But even if you have a plus EV table there, you won't know, so it's a painful way to minimize your losses or your wins. That's my best retort, having admitted defeat, and I doubt that it makes much sense. But that still doesn't mean I would vote yes, unless all tables had the same rules, the same number of players that all smelled tolerably. And I might choose a table that had a fabulous hot chick sitting at it, even if or maybe because she had a nice stack.

Absolutely, a hot chick at the table outweighs most other considerations. That goes without saying "hot chick" wins over "hot table" every time.
But, if, like you said, all other factors are equal, I would rather pick a table that is "cold" (because it is due!).

Quote: dm

I have identified many more bad dealers than good, but most of the good dealers don't give you hints either way.

Uh, mybe. I believe a good dealer sees what you want and adjusts to it. I said as much at my dealer-school interview and think it is part of what got me to class. I will use an example from when I was doing a craps-game at a party. Stopped to get a soft-drink at the bar after. Bartender asked me how I was able to handle all that action and how a dealer treated the players. He was asking seriously. I told him that it was no different than being a good bartender and said he as a good bartender probably knew what someone was drinking and how they liked their drink. Instant agreement (imagine that :-) ) I explained craps was the same way. Guyis betting line numbers or a hardway and forgets, you ask if he wants it. Says bet 8 five times in a row then says "6" you say, "changing it up, eh?" Sometimes they did make a mistake, sometimes they realize you are just looking out for them. All but total jagoffs realize you are merely trying to help and keep it running.

So BJ is same way. Clueless players want the help. Good players appriciate the warnings if you are about to hit a player 16 against a deaer 6. In that place a good dealer will just say "hit" with an inflection indicating a question and the good player realizes it. Jagoffs you let go to the felt and hope they leave as they will not tip anyways.

IOW-good dealers learn how you want to be treated in just a few hands even if you do not know what you like.

Quote: weaselman

Absolutely, a hot chick at the table outweighs most other considerations. That goes without saying "hot chick" wins over "hot table" every time.
But, if, like you said, all other factors are equal, I would rather pick a table that is "cold" (because it is due!).

My idea is all other factors being irrelevant, I'm looking for the hot chick, hot dealer, both or no one but me at the table. Just my poor luck, but I have never discovered a table that was other than lukewarm. Honestly, I like to open tables for my favored casinos and leave as soon as I pull in some players. If it turns out that it was just my good looks, charisma, little stack, whatever, I brought the cattle to the trough but it's up to the dealer to water them. Do I get the BS award for the day?

Quote: AZDuffman

Uh, mybe. I believe a good dealer sees what you want and adjusts to it. I said as much at my dealer-school interview and think it is part of what got me to class. I will use an example from when I was doing a craps-game at a party. Stopped to get a soft-drink at the bar after. Bartender asked me how I was able to handle all that action and how a dealer treated the players. He was asking seriously. I told him that it was no different than being a good bartender and said he as a good bartender probably knew what someone was drinking and how they liked their drink. Instant agreement (imagine that :-) ) I explained craps was the same way. Guyis betting line numbers or a hardway and forgets, you ask if he wants it. Says bet 8 five times in a row then says "6" you say, "changing it up, eh?" Sometimes they did make a mistake, sometimes they realize you are just looking out for them. All but total jagoffs realize you are merely trying to help and keep it running.

So BJ is same way. Clueless players want the help. Good players appriciate the warnings if you are about to hit a player 16 against a deaer 6. In that place a good dealer will just say "hit" with an inflection indicating a question and the good player realizes it. Jagoffs you let go to the felt and hope they leave as they will not tip anyways.

IOW-good dealers learn how you want to be treated in just a few hands even if you do not know what you like.

I play short sessions, and I often leave the table thinking that was a good dealer, whereas a poor dealer leaves no question. Have had very few dealers I considered poor. There was a single deck guy at Hooters that was dealing less than half deck to us 4 players, and the other 3 were terrible. So, I mostly watched him shuffle, but not for very long.

I voted no. I will not place a bet unless I know the count. If the count is positive I will play even if I'm losing and I've lost more than a few max bets in a row many times. When the count turns negative I stop playing or leave the table depending on the conditions. The only scouting I do is for fast dealers and good penetration. Hot or cold, breaking or not breaking, means nothing to me. The dealer doesn't always have to break for me to get paid.

The funniest thing is seeing a dead game with the cards spread and the dealer saying not to sit down because he's been hot all day. I know most of the time they're being sincere so I thank them for the heads up and sit anyway saying it's time to turn things around or something equally meaningless.

Someone should start a thread about all the things that clueless dealers say.

The only previous results that matter are mine, and there is only one - did I already lose all my money.

Rules and minimums are the only thing I look at, with amount of players making the final decision if I have more than one table choice.

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Quote: aluisio

Really? I do not even consider the possibility of being cheated by a casino I play. Is that too naive?

I wrote "less-likely", right? And not to discount stuff like disputed plays, which in some casinos are a frequent and genuine uphill battle. Besides, i guess you have to have been cheated a few times, especially when winning, to really (not) appreciate it.

Quote: dwheatley

However, this effect is very small.

Indeed.

Of course past results affect the future results at that blackjack table ... or else whats a heaven for?

If a sweet young thing in a low cut dress sits beside you and then invites you up to her suite for the night, you might as well go to the same table the next night. She may not be there but you will be and all the young men who were at that table the previous night will be there again this night.

If you win real big, you will be at that table the next night too.

If you see others winning really big you know you will join in rather than try to crack a cold table. I mean lets face it folks, we all do it even though none of us would ever claim that there was some causal relationship. If the dealer is winning every single hand you can still sit down and maybe start winning right away, but you can also make another round of the BJ pit and see if anything "better" opens up. If a dealer is losing like crazy and there is a vacant seat... take it!! His luck may change... or it may not. Go for it.

Why do you think the M Resort keeps the same dealer at the same table on a thirty day rotation string. If you enjoyed a particular dealer at four pm yesterday and its getting on towards four pm today,,, just wander on down to the same table, he will be there again. Does this help players to win? No. Doesn't help them to lose either, but it makes things fun and enjoyable. So go for it.

Most craps dealers will let you know how the tables been running and most craps players look around to see which direction the chips are flying in and who is having fun. Most BJ dealers make comments too. Even if its just a warning "I've been doing very well tonight".

No one claims its a causal relationship.

Quote: dm

I play short sessions, and I often leave the table thinking that was a good dealer, whereas a poor dealer leaves no question.

Last few "poor dealers" I had I attribute to being "new dealers." One on craps forgot to pay and collect in one shift on base. Nice guy, but green. I asked to be paid quietly when he forgot so as not to blow him in to the box-chick. To protect him even further when he forgot to collect I just let it go and said nothing.

He forgot again on the very next roll! He was forgetting the DP collects but she caught it that time! I think she saw it the first time but was late seeing it and not 100% so let a $5 loss go.

I was leaving the casino once and was deciding whether or not to try one more round of blackjack. I said something about getting killed to one of the dealers and she replied, play at the tables where the dealer has fewer chips in their rack. If the dealer's rack is full the dealer is winning, but if the dealer's rack has fewer chips it means the player's are winning. I just shook my head and left.

Quote: SONBP2

I was leaving the casino once and was deciding whether or not to try one more round of blackjack. I said something about getting killed to one of the dealers and she replied, play at the tables where the dealer has fewer chips in their rack. If the dealer's rack is full the dealer is winning, but if the dealer's rack has fewer chips it means the player's are winning. I just shook my head and left.

As far as uninformed observations go at least this one shows they have tried to think things out. Like at rib cookoffs where I look for the fattest dudes cooking.......

If she were a really good dealer she might have told you about how if you double your bet after a loss you will eventually own the casino.

Quote: dwheatley

If the table is losing, there is > 50 % chance the shoe is in positive count. APs who just want to play can use this to sit down if they didn't get a chance to back count.

However, this effect is very small. Past results have no other effect on future results.

In blackjack you are wrong past results and the cards dealt out do effect future hands assuming the deck is not shuffled. For example if a player pulls a blackjack on the first hand of the deck he is more likely to lose or not get a blackjack on the next hand.

Quote: cardcounter

In blackjack you are wrong past results and the cards dealt out do effect future hands assuming the deck is not shuffled. For example if a player pulls a blackjack on the first hand of the deck he is more likely to lose or not get a blackjack on the next hand.

You are paraphrasing me. I also count cards, and know about the negative correlation between hands. What do you think my first paragraph refers to? I'm not wrong. I've been wrong before, but not this time.