Popularity of blackjack in Vegas

Quote: pacomartin

The dollar drop in total pit revenue [since 2007] is 47% from blackjack. Since the pit revenue as a whole has dropped 21.4% you can eyeball which games are doing better than average.

The march towards carnival games has been relentless. Your data supports a huge move in the last three years towards carnival games by both casino management and casino patrons. This is supported by other data I have seen as well as anecdotal experiences.

One thing to keep in mind is that carnival games have enticed some slot players to move up to table games. In this sense, they are helping to keep gaming pits at their current level. Without carnival games, and the slot players who play them, as well as 6/5 blackjack, the table games area would be on the road towards extinction at many casinos.

Yesterday, I overheard a patron at a casino say "I don't like this slot, it doesn't have any sounds." That's typical of the level of thought that goes into patron's choice of games these days. I could say a lot more here, but the disgressions to make various points seem endless.

--Dorothy

I looked at old quarterly statistical reports to come up with the following percentage of 21 tables to total non-slot games. 2009 is based on the third quarter, and all other years, the fourth quarter. You can see that 21 games dropped from 69% in 1990 to 52% in 2009.

Year	21 Share
1990	69.1%
1991	67.8%
1992	66.3%
1993	65.0%
1994	61.9%
1995	60.4%
1996	61.2%
1997	60.9%
1998	60.2%
1999	60.3%
2000	59.0%
2001	57.6%
2002	57.1%
2003	56.6%
2004	55.8%
2005	55.4%
2006	53.9%
2007	53.1%
2008	52.3%
2009	52.1%

I plan write about this in my next "Ask the Wizard." Here is a link to a preview.

Wizard
Thanks for addressing the issue. I would add something about the drop in 21 revenue and the increase in Baccarat revenue. Follows is for strip revenue only, and the percent refers to percent of the pit (i.e. no card games or slots).

Year Ending	Baccarat	Twenty One
30-Nov-09	34.0%	28.3%
31-Oct-07	29.1%	32.3%

This thread got too complicated for my tiny brain, so I stayed out of it after my initial response.


But since the Wiz addressed this thread in his Ask The Wiz #245, I thought I'd comment on his conclusion.

Quote:

This begs the question of why blackjack is losing market share. Here are what I think are the main reasons:

1 - Popularity of poker-based games is causing some players to switch.
2 - Casinos don't comp blackjack play as well as other games.
3 - The rules are getting worse. I'm not suggesting most players know this, but over time, players can feel rule changes, like the dealer's hitting a soft 17, in their wallet.
4 - All casino games have a natural lifespan, and blackjack is getting more grey.

I think #3 is only partly right. I think paying 6:5 has far more impact than hitting on soft 17.

Quite frankly, I wonder how many recreational BJ players even know the difference between H17 and S17 rules? Probably less than the number who know the difference between single and double zero roulette! Even I didn't know there were different dealer rules until I started to read about it on the Wiz's main site.

Seriously, I thought that the rule was printed on the table simply as a point of information, much the same way as the insurance area specifies 'Pays 2 to 1'.

Yeah, the tables also say BJ pays ___, but even that often goes unnoticed until the player at a 6:5 table thinks he got short-paid. Then it makes a BIG, IMMEDIATE impact!

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quite frankly, I wonder how many recreational BJ players even know the difference between H17 and S17 rules? Probably less than the number who know the difference between single and double zero roulette! Even I didn't know there were different dealer rules until I started to read about it on the Wiz's main site.

Well of course most players don't know rules like H17 or S17 or Double After Split is permitted or not. Most people think a hard 17 is a good hand solely because they don't have to make a decision. But people do learn simple rules. Most recreational blackjack players will confidently say that insurance is for suckers (while almost always taking even money).A lot of people know always splits aces and eights since the alliterative phrase is easy to remember. Even people that have no interest in the basic strategy can learn 6:5 blackjack is for suckers.

But blackjack has clearly plunged more than any other major table game, far more than slots (as a percentage) or craps or roulette. I was struggling to explain the dramatic difference. I think that avoidance of bad rules has to be part of the explanation.

The drop in TWENTY-ONE (or BLACKJACK) revenue has been half the dollar amountof the drop in the total pit. BACCARAT has recovered almost to pre-depression levels. The total pit dropped 21% so you can see how each game fared against the average. Data is for the Las Vegas Strip only.

Blackjack has returned to 1997 levels in the state of Nevada. But it peaked in October 2007. During the recession Baccarat has replaced Blackjack as the most popular table game.

Category	Pit Revenue	Game	Drop
Traditional	84.70%	BACCARAT	-8.20%
		ROULETTE	-14.10%
		CRAPS	-21.10%
		TWENTY-ONE	-31.20%
		MINI-BACCARAT	-40.60%
Shufflemaster proprietary	4.80%	LET IT RIDE	-11.20%
		3-CARD POKER	-22.30%
Sports	3.20%	RACE BOOK	-35.70%
		SPORTS POOL	-39.70%
Pai Gow	2.90%	PAI GOW POKER	-19.40%
		PAI GOW TILES	-55.80%
Small Traditional	0.40%	BINGO	+118.00%
		KENO	-31.60%
Carnival	4.00%	Rest of Pit	-14.40%

Slots took a similar 21% drop in revenue over the same period. As most people know penny slots are increasing in revenue even in the depression , but all other slots are falling.

Quote: pacomartin

Well of course most players don't know rules like H17 or S17 or Double After Split is permitted or not.

Double After Split is the type of thing that people will ask about, and may not even realize that there could be some tables in the casino with different rules about that.

Frankly, pick any of the stupid rules changes, and you can be sure it's part of the reason for the decline of BlackJack.


My point was, that of all the stupid rules changes, H17 / S17 is one that the recreational player is least familiar with, while 6:5 has the biggest, obvious impact.

6:5 BJ should not even be considered BJ. It is just another variant of "21" games. New Jersey classifies the game differently as distinct from BJ. Another reason they are the better gaming jurisdiction.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Frankly, pick any of the stupid rules changes, and you can be sure it's part of the reason for the decline of BlackJack.

Basically that is the $0.5 billion question. How much of that it drop in Nevada is because of stupid rule changes, because of competition with other states, the depression, or the aging of blackjack?

"Blackjack", or, "21", is game that while currently overshadowed by the popularity of Poker, continues to be one of the most played games in Las Vegas, and it is quickly becoming a mainstay of many other casinos

http://www.eldoradopalace.com/

Quote: henrykipson

"Blackjack", or, "21", is game that while currently overshadowed by the popularity of Poker, continues to be one of the most played games in Las Vegas, and it is quickly becoming a mainstay of many other casinos

http://www.eldoradopalace.com/

I was not disputing that Blackjack is popular. It is still very firmly in the #2 place on the strip for all table games (behind baccarat). However, it used to be #1 as recent as August 2009, and it has fallen further than almost every other table game.

Poker (i.e. tournaments and regular games with a rake) earn less for casinos than the table game "3-card poker", and is distant to baccarat, blackjack, craps, and roulette. I agree that it is a popular game, it just doesn't make that much money for casinos.