OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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July 30th, 2017 at 1:57:04 PM permalink
Quote: Salthouse

One could argue bankroll management is only critical if losing it in totality is a life changing moment. Most of the time this never happens.

So few people go bust because of bankroll mismanagement. Erm I have to disagree there!
Quote:

People quit playing until they are able to add to their remaining monies.

By begging on the streets, re-mortgaging, or maybe maxing out some cards.
Kelly ( or better half kelly ) demands that you constantly re-assess your ROR. If that means grinding back up with some smaller wagers, then so you must do.
Embrace the Variance
Salthouse
Salthouse
Joined: Jul 30, 2017
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July 30th, 2017 at 2:01:44 PM permalink
I agree with most of what your last post said if we are talking the theoretical world of blackjack. However the game is played by humans. If the human has a tiny bankroll my approach is the only one where by the player is not wasting their time. I agree they are gambling with more risk. But this fact does not make it a bad strategy for low bankrolls under 10k providing there is other income and cash flow.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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July 30th, 2017 at 2:03:55 PM permalink
Quote: tyler498

is the bankroll a figure in your mind or does it have to be money you are actually able to put in the game? why would having that money bring you any advantage (such as lower risk of losing)?


Tyler, you sound like you have the smarts to read several explanations to all you questions. I believe all your suspicions are correct.

I can't validate all of Romes explanations, but the 50% I've practiced were all right on the button.

Romes asks: What is . . .

1. . . . the house edge? (< 0.60 or lower)
2. . . . your bet spread?
3. . . . your session bankroll?
4. . . . your hourly EV (expected value) of the game you’re going to play? and
5. . . . the PEN? Don't play if < 60%, because you'll rarely get a TC high enough (>=2) to merit raising your bet.

If you cannot answer these 5 questions, then you're NOT ready to gamble!

These are the 3 articles of Romes


http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
someone
someone
Joined: Nov 9, 2014
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  • Posts: 30
July 30th, 2017 at 5:12:07 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG


If lets say you have a N0 of 17k, you now know you need to play 17,000 rounds of blackjack to have a 68% chance of not being BEHIND and you can now adjust your living expenses and risk accordingly.



ZenKinG your percentage is off a little. in your example after 17,000 rounds you have 84% chance of not being behind. This is because you are losing only if you are behind more than 1 standard deviation. The 68% you mention is the chance of being within 1 standard dev, but there is also 16% chance that you are more than 1 standard dev up.

Of course your point is still correct. The N0 matters.
tyler498
tyler498
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
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July 30th, 2017 at 5:58:00 PM permalink
Thanks all, you are really helpful. I am getting it better and yes I agree that the amount of money you can put in should impact the way you bet, and the variance you are comfortable with. I just wanted to confirm I didn't need to actually have that bankroll ( it could be replenished over time if needed), also I guess I was looking for a reason not to worry about all those calculations and resizing especially that I ever only play one game.
I also read Romes A-toZ counting cards and WoO's before I started, and to answer your questions LostWages:
I only play 6deck S17 DAS DA2 LS with 75% pen, 10$ min. The house edge according to WoO is -0.36. I use basic strategy and I18+F4.
1 -0.36
2 1-16 (8*2)
3 About 1K$
4 Not sure about that one, according to /games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/ , in which the example is the same as my play, my PLAYER ADV = 0.834% * 1.9*10$ avg bet *100 handsperhour ==> 15.8$ per hour. But this part in the wizard's sim I do not do so my EV is probably higher:
"To avoid setting off red flags, the simulation increased the bet after a win only, decreased after a loss only, and always stayed the same after a push, except resetting to a minimum bet after a shuffle. The simulation rounded the remaining decks to the nearest half deck, otherwise playing perfectly."
5 - 75%

I have played about 100 hours and I'm up 2.5k$. Let me know if there is anything I can improve, I am working on getting the discipline to do it consistently.
I learned that the hard way when I wanted to split 10s vs 6 on a TC+8, but got pressured by the table not to do so and ended up with a push/loss (2hands), instead of what would've been a +400$ swing...
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
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July 30th, 2017 at 6:58:22 PM permalink
Definitely have to split the tens vs 6 at +8. Actually I usually wait until +7 or +8 to start splitting, because while you can maximize your expected value by splitting at TC +4 (in the case of TT v 6) it's not really worth the increased variance and risk until slightly higher. You should definitely pay no attention to what other people at the table are saying, but more importantly try to get a heads up game even if it means playing through negative counts.

Also you should stop over betting your bankroll. It's really not that hard to go on a 30 or 40 max bet downswing.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
  • Threads: 36
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Thanks for this post from:
Romes
July 30th, 2017 at 9:19:44 PM permalink
Tyler498

Quote: tyler498

Let me know if there is anything I can improve

Tyler, thanks for continuing the discussion. Actually, my post was to provide info based on the Romes readings I've done. It appears you have most of the conditions in your favor, HE of -0.36, PEN of 75%, and especially no heat ("nobody cares about spreads").

I've calculated my EV for the game I like to play, but have not done a calculation for when a person plays TWO hands at a time - is that what you meant by (8 * 2)?

I am guessing you double the EV calculated for one hand, and with your 1-16 spread for 2 hands (8*2) I came up with $21.269 X 2 or $42.538/hr.

If I have incorrectly interpreted your spread and ramping, I'm sure you or a more experienced poster than myself will correct that.

Here is the calculation spreadsheet where you can correct the ramping to match what you actually use to see how yor EV can further improve. Sorry, forgot to enter HE of -0.36 on the spread sheet.

You're in a great forum with many players who can share their input!

Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
ZenKinG
ZenKinG 
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 22
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July 31st, 2017 at 1:57:25 AM permalink
Quote: someone

ZenKinG your percentage is off a little. in your example after 17,000 rounds you have 84% chance of not being behind. This is because you are losing only if you are behind more than 1 standard deviation. The 68% you mention is the chance of being within 1 standard dev, but there is also 16% chance that you are more than 1 standard dev up.

Of course your point is still correct. The N0 matters.



Yes i know that you have a 16% chance of being > 1 standard deviation. I was simply pointing out what the single number of N0 means in blackjack and that's having a 68% of overcoming 1 SD AND being WITHIN 1 standard deviation. You make a good point though for other new to be counters reading because you are also right, but i was simply talking about NOT being behind and was not talking about exceeding 1SD. If you look at my last post, I said "of NOT being behind".

All in all, after 1*N0, you have a 16% chance of being in the red, 68% chance of being ahead AND within one standard deviation and a 16% chance of being ahead by more than 1SD. Now, the more important thing, is knowing that 4*N0 would give you a 95% chance of NOT being behind and within 2 SD. If you're still not ahead at least .01 cent after 4*N0, thats when you can start assuming that you're either playing poorly or being cheated.

The reason why I like N0 so much is because if you're like me and you're moving out somewhere and need to adjust for living expenses, instead of just factoring in a full years expenses which for me was around 18k. I now know with a 95% certainty(4*N0) that ill be ahead after lets say 52,000 rounds. I then take those 52,000 rounds and divide by a conservative 60 rounds per hour and it comes out to around 850 hours. With my initial plan of playing 36 hours of week, i now know i will only have to worry about 6 months worth of expenses and instead of subtracting 18k from my bankroll, I now only need to subtract 9k from my bankroll. That's a 50% difference right there and you most likely now will still be able to keep your regular bet sizes and not have to downsize. Had you not understood N0, you would be subtracting 18k from your bankroll and not have your bankroll grow at an optimal rate. Granted, ive played no where near 36 hours a week, mostly due to being shell-shocked right off the bat while still getting situated, but in theory and practicality, it really helps someone manage their bankroll if they're like me and want to move out and play full time.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Jul 31, 2017
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF >
tyler498
tyler498
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
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July 31st, 2017 at 4:17:00 AM permalink
Quote: LostWages

Tyler498

Quote: tyler498

Let me know if there is anything I can improve

Tyler, thanks for continuing the discussion. Actually, my post was to provide info based on the Romes readings I've done. It appears you have most of the conditions in your favor, HE of -0.36, PEN of 75%, and especially no heat ("nobody cares about spreads").

I've calculated my EV for the game I like to play, but have not done a calculation for when a person plays TWO hands at a time - is that what you meant by (8 * 2)?

I am guessing you double the EV calculated for one hand, and with your 1-16 spread for 2 hands (8*2) I came up with $21.269 X 2 or $42.538/hr.

If I have incorrectly interpreted your spread and ramping, I'm sure you or a more experienced poster than myself will correct that.

Here is the calculation spreadsheet where you can correct the ramping to match what you actually use to see how yor EV can further improve. Sorry, forgot to enter HE of -0.36 on the spread sheet.

You're in a great forum with many players who can share their input!

g]


Thanks so much! you got it correctly, I play 2 hands usually at TC+2 (when spot available next to me). So yeah I figured my EV+ should be over 20$, which works for me at the moment.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 376
July 31st, 2017 at 10:21:22 AM permalink
Quote: tyler498

Thanks so much! you got it correctly, I play 2 hands usually at TC+2 (when spot available next to me). So yeah I figured my EV+ should be over 20$, which works for me at the moment.

Glad to share what I've slowly picked up in bits and pieces. If you play with the ramping, you'll see how you can easily increase/decrease your EV!

The more experienced players are sure to add a comment or two.

That's cool you can play 2 hands at a time - I'm still working to find a comfort level playing with ONE hand!

Cheers!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)

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