stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
• Posts: 297
July 30th, 2017 at 5:40:02 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Why ramp up at all at +1? You are very barely at any advantage. In fact, I doubt you had any. Yet that is probably the bunch of games where you were throwing most money.
Were you afraid of heat :)

I actually had an advantage even at a neatral count - .2% i believe-

No heat- he has no idea of advatage play or card counting - or that he was letting me play a single deck with the best rules, no cut card, and wheir there wasnt even a house advantage (as he was playing the house)

- he just wanted to gamble and play blackjack
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4129
August 1st, 2017 at 8:55:38 AM permalink
Sounds like a dream scenario, assuming you still play perfectly when drinking, and that he wasn't cheating you since you were playing for a large sum of money at "someones house" after a poker game... Yeah, I've seen all kinds of people cheat in those scenarios. With a game that's +EV off the top, to play for TWELVE HOURS straight I find it almost hard to be down (then again you were under funded admittedly) but still...

If I read the rules correctly: 1D, S17, DA2, DAS, NRSA, SP4, LS you would have almost a .2% edge off the top.

I don't have the frequencies for 1D 90%+ PEN (forgive me lol) but based on other figures I'd estimate your Average Bet to be around \$300?

Under assuming, estimating getting about 100 hands per hour... 12 hours = 1,200 hands

Also averaging saying you played with an average of a 2.5% advantage (most counters are 1-2%, but with the insane PEN and favorable rules....)

OriginalSD = 1.15*300 = 345

EV(1200 hands) = (1200*300)*(.025) = \$9000
SD(1200 hands) = Sqrt(1200)*345= ~\$12k... 2SD = \$24k ... 3SD = \$36k

So from my VERY ROUGH and VERY ESTIMATING numbers, you were almost down about 1SD. Not enough to confirm anything shady per say... but alas these are simply educated guesses to get a "rough idea." Your SIM is more accurate, for sure, but just wanted to do it to see some numbers myself and compare.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.