stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
• Posts: 297
July 29th, 2017 at 2:49:12 AM permalink
So, yesterday after a poker house game I was playing at broke, I offered if anybody wanted to play blackjack with me heads up, and they can be the house.

I got a bite.

1 deck
S17
Late Surrender
Resplit Aces
Penetration - "NO CUT CARD" Lol... 90%+

I was playing 1 hand on all 0 and negative counts, then played 3 hands anytime the count was +1 or higher.
\$50 on neutral and negative counts , (1 hand)
+1- \$100 (3 hands)
+2 - \$200 (3hands)
+3 or higher - \$300 (3 hands)

We played for 12 hours straight.

My hourly EV+ I calculate at around \$2,000. I estimated this based on casino verite playing 2 hands and multiplied by 1.5 to compensate for playing 3 hands. I notice when you input into the sim a single deck, it dosent give you the option to say you can play 1 hand at neatral and negative counts and 2 hands on positive counts. Also, you cant input playing 3 hands into the sim.

Anyway, I managed to actually lose \$6,000 after 12 hours. The problem was, I only had \$6,000 as a trip bankroll, so my risk of ruin was probably close to 50% playing at that level.

I want to try to convince him to play me again, (a chance to win my money back). But, this time I will bring a bigger bankroll. Maybe closer to 20k.

My expected value on this situation is Huge. But, I don't want to go broke again playing.

Any opinions, on what I should do to give myself the best chance of not losing my trip bankroll again?

Lower my max bet (sacrifice +EV),? bring more of a bankroll? Change the amount of hands I should play?
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 1816
July 29th, 2017 at 6:42:18 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

\$50 on neutral and negative counts , (1 hand)
+1- \$100 (3 hands)
+2 - \$200 (3hands)
+3 or higher - \$300 (3 hands)

Why ramp up at all at +1? You are very barely at any advantage. In fact, I doubt you had any. Yet that is probably the bunch of games where you were throwing most money.
Were you afraid of heat :)
Embrace the Variance
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 1816
July 29th, 2017 at 6:57:59 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I want to try to convince him to play me again, (a chance to win my money back). But, this time I will bring a bigger bankroll. Maybe closer to 20k.

Don't forget that the effort will be futile unless you can convince him to also bring a massive trip bankroll. Unless he's well trusted.
Embrace the Variance
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
• Posts: 22
July 29th, 2017 at 6:59:18 AM permalink
You should have a substantial advantage at TC +1. Almost certainly in the +.8% range, although I'd need to sim it to be sure. single deck is worth +.48%.

But if villain is cheating you don't have any advantage at all.
Ace
Joined: Aug 15, 2013
• Posts: 27
July 29th, 2017 at 8:56:31 AM permalink
I estimate you lost about 1.7% of what you wagered. 12 hours of play for a single player is nothing. Just regular variance ?
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 2176
Thanks for this post from:
July 29th, 2017 at 9:07:28 AM permalink
Were the cards domestic or from China?
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
racquet
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
• Posts: 95
July 29th, 2017 at 9:37:23 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Were the cards domestic or from China?

Oh no. Not that again. Please - let's keep that in it's original thread. It's like kudzu and gypsy moths. Once it gets out, we won't be able to kill it.
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
• Posts: 297
July 29th, 2017 at 6:28:53 PM permalink
I doubt he was cheating, although I was super drunk , the deck was used from the poker game and I know the guy well who runs the poker game , the deck wasnt marked/. Regardless - he was making no decisions - he has to hit stand according to dealer rules.

Anyway, on my way to play poker - he will be there- gonna try to get him to play me again.

Bankroll, he will have money .
Last edited by: stabworld on Jul 30, 2017
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017