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DRich
DRich
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June 18th, 2017 at 3:25:12 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

What's the difference between praying in church and praying in a casino?



I will take 800-1 over eternal salvation anyday.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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mamat
June 18th, 2017 at 4:00:09 PM permalink
This whole thread could be great cover to keep other potential card counters away.
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
boymimbo
boymimbo
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June 18th, 2017 at 4:07:14 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Well my advantage is much closer to 1.5% than 1%. If i wong in and out solely my edge is around 1.8% but i do play off the top occasionally i would say maybe 20% of the time and i wong out aggressively at -1 if i do play off the top. I also dont know why you used betting 250 a hand FLAT. 2x250 is my max bet and i only put that out at +5 at about a 2.5% advantage.

You're also not taking into account how unlucky it is to get to a new town and COINCIDENTALLY go down big. Ive had only 2 of these big losing streaks in 900 hours and for it to COINCIDENTALLY happen right when i get here. Yea just laughable, pure laughable. You guys can say whatever you want. The fact of the matter is im cursed in life. Everything i have done to this point has been nothing short of failure or under-performance.



Nonetheless your standard deviation is not so-out-of-the ordinary that it isn't out of the blue. Plus if other counters are winning it's evidence against the casinos being fixed.

Even at $2x100 average bet over the 4,000 hands you played your standard deviation is $12,069.16 and by your math you should be up 12,000. That puts you down roughly -1.75 standard deviations or about 3.6% probability. That said, I am guessing you're getting killed when your counts are the highest.

Events are not linked except in your brain. You can coincidentally go down for any reason. But my bet is that you probably need to be more introspective in your play and not get rattled.

And I agree with other posters. Losing $10k of a 61k bankroll does not count as being "cursed" in life. In the game of life, 10k is peanuts. You pay your realtor 20k and mortgage breakage penalties when you sell your house. You pay 10k/year for health insurance. I pay $10k / year for my kid's university.

Cursed in life? Bulls**t. In my opinion:

"Cursed in life" means incurable cancer. It means losing your loved one or parents early in life. It means a long-term painful struggle, like a many year struggle in getting access to your child having a a wife with schizophrenia, or a brother with alcoholism, or a mother suffering from early onset alzheimers, or getting your leg blown off in Afghanistan or Iraq and having to live your life in a wheelchair. Or try being a kid in Africa looking for clean water and a meal, or a teenager in Africa getting AIDs. Or being faced with bankruptcy in America because you're sick. Or being tagged as Trump's press secretary.

And even still, most people would not feel "cursed". You are anything but cursed. By all accounts, you are incredibly blessed.

You are too attached to money. Money is like a river. It comes and goes, and when you die, it's gone, along with all of your other possessions and things that you love. Those possessions won't remember you when you're gone. Your family and friends will.

Speaking of that, Happy Father's day, everyone.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
monet0412
monet0412
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BTLWI
June 18th, 2017 at 4:41:30 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Now ask him what the catch is.

EC has gone all gangbusters on VP AP's recently, you should be fine for a while, I think it's only people that have been hammering them for a while.

I do see a problem with anything low to mid-level VP/slots or whatever for you. You are down to 8k and have big swings. I can't imagine you are going to sit around and grind out a $100 to $200 in EV.



I disagree with the EV numbers posted here but that is ok. My point wasn't exactly to go all in at the El Cortel with only one player. The point was that this is a very basic strategy that you can do at any Casino if you want to play things Straight like ZK does and the numbers were exactly what you get over there. When I met him I knew something was off or wrong but I didn't realize he had the Curse on him. If I knew that I wouldn't of wasted my money buying drinks and playing pool with him. I wouldn't of shook his hand or came within eye contact of him. I hope it isn't contagious??? Now I know why I have been on a losing streak lately. It has been hard enough beating these crooked no good cheating Casinos for the last 20 years but now I have to spend weeks learning how to get this Curse off of me...thanks a lot ZK!!
MaxPen
MaxPen
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trustthemath
June 18th, 2017 at 10:12:44 PM permalink
That's why they call it BLACKjack. You must be a master of the BlackMagic arts to beat the game no matter how great an edge you have. You also need to sleep with one of these at night, below. You also have to take it to the BJ table every Friday the 13th and Halloween.



I thought everybody knew this. How do you become a proficient highly skilled counter and not discover this secret to greatness is beyond me. Anyway, now you know Zen. Let me know if you can't locate the High Priestess on Bonanza that supplies these to counters when they arrive in town.
billryan
billryan
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June 19th, 2017 at 3:06:12 AM permalink
All cats are grey in the dark.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
OutsideTheBox
OutsideTheBox
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June 19th, 2017 at 4:15:24 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

It's official. Vegas is finally happening. Booked my apartment/hotel stay and put up the deposit. Since I will be leaving in May and the weather is decent throughout most of the country, it looks like im taking the direct route and avoiding the corrupt cash seizing cops in oklahoma and texas. Still not sure if I want to go through Utah or Colorado as there could be some snow possibly, but ill decide when it's time for that. For those that i havent annoyed enough yet, i thought it was worth it to update you guys with another thread of my Vegas departure status. Hopefully i dont run into some horrible variance in the next 2 weeks or perhaps just not play at all and wait for the trip.

I managed to get to a 61k bankroll and it looks like ill be well funded going into this 'adventure'. Rent is going to be $800 a month(All utilities included in price) and around $300 a month for fuel(driving) and $300 a month for food, so about 16k in expenses for the year. For bankroll risk purposes i will play to a 50k bankroll and assume about 8k expenses(6 months of blackjack play) as that should be a good conservative estimate of being 'ahead' from my blackjack play, especially since i plan to play and grind out A LOT of hours. Will keep my max bet at no more than 2x300 at big strip casinos and 2x200 at off-strip casinos as i want to try and fly under the radar as much as possible. Will show my max bet once and be out the door. Maybe add in an additional wong-in, but no more than 2 shoes per session as most casinos need 3 shoes to figure out your play. I also plan to hit up 9 stores each day. Each session in the long run should equate to about 45 minutes max with this criteria and should help me fly under the radar, or at least i hope so. Of course i got other tricks up my sleeve to manipulate the pit bosses, but ill refrain from posting about it.

2500 miles to go. Now only if i could find some good sized 'shoes'.





Keep your sessions short. Once you're flyered somewhere you're flyered everywhere.
Romes
Romes
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June 19th, 2017 at 7:46:18 AM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Just when I thought this cheating story couldn't get any worse or shall I say funnier, you shouldve heard what a dealer at Paris told me tonight...

Why are you playing at Paris? You clearly must not have done your casino homework. If you even vulture in their casino you get added to databases...

Quote: ZenKinG

Just when I thought this cheating story couldn't get any worse or shall I say funnier, you shouldve heard what a dealer at Paris told me tonight. I'm still laughing as I type this.

So I go to the dealer, so what do you guys so with the old cards, do you guys send the used cards to the gift shop or something? He goes "yes we do". I was like how long does it take to get there? He says the cards dont go there right away, they go to a PRISON where they then sort the cards first, then send it back LOOL...

This is like, exceedingly common practice in a lot of states. Anyone who's played BJ for a while knows this.

Quote: ZenKinG

Well I hope you're talking about comps through maybe video poker and using promotions/rebates to also get a slim edge. Other than that I'm not gonna play some -EV game like craps and play the pass line to get a few comps...

I don't think he's referring to playing -EV games at all. Reread what he said as he's absolutely correct on "figuring" out the casino. There are DOZENS and DOZENS of ways to get edges over the casino, eat for free, etc, etc, etc.

Quote: MaxPen

Average bet of 125(80 hands per X 60 hours)=600K total action.

So you're down like 1 percent on total action? Over less than 5k hands.

Let's see where you're at 10X that...

I've been saying "get more hands" for over a month now.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
Romes
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June 19th, 2017 at 7:46:32 AM permalink
The rest of these really deserved their own post...

Quote: ZenKinG

-9815 / 58 hours played with a max bet of 2x250.

Bankroll now slightly below 48k LOOOL.

Around 4,000 hands played. Let that sink in how unlucky I am...

Not really that unlucky really... 4k hands is a joke. You had the owner and creator of your software (QFIT) even chime in pages and pages back stating that is says ON the software when opened that anything less than like a billion hands should be considered worthless results. You just think you're unlucky and don't realize that you're really not that unlucky. Sure you could be luckier to be up X SD's, but you're no where in your journey yet. You've played a spec of what you need to play.

At 4k hands you could be playing BASIC STRATEGY and still be up more than you're down:

assuming avg bet $150...

EV(4k hands) = (4,000*150)*(-.005) = -$3000
SD(4k hands) = Sqrt(4000) * 172.5 = $11,000.

Shit, with ONE STANDARD DEVIATION JUST PLAYING BASIC STRATEGY LOSING BLACKJACK you could be up $8k. Why do you not get how WORTHLESS your short term results really are?

That's like saying, OMG I lost 5 hands in a row... .42^5 = .013... so that happens only ONE percent of the time OMG OMG OMG... but what you don't realize is that happens 1 out of every 100 hands you play and if you're a pro playing 500-1000 hands per day you're going to see that on a DAILY basis. So you can cry "5%" or whatever all you want, but what you don't realize is you're not unlucky, that's the math and natural swings of the game (as we've been telling you all along). When you realize that, then you'll realize how bad you look for crying "omg 5% of the time..." because it just shows you don't understand the math of the game you're playing and claiming to be one of the best at.

Quote: ZenKinG

...You're also not taking into account how unlucky it is to get to a new town and COINCIDENTALLY go down big....

Let me try to clarify something for you, that maybe you don't understand fully... The cards do not care what town you're in. You're giving meaning to something that's meaningless. It doesn't matter that you just moved. It doesn't matter that you just started in vegas or anywhere. You are NOT getting unlucky. These are the NATURAL swings of the game. Period.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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OnceDear
June 19th, 2017 at 7:52:56 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

You are NOT getting unlucky.

Ya, but what about the rest of us at this point? (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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