QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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April 18th, 2017 at 5:44:55 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

We could also entertain the argument that 100 divided by infinity does not equal zero



Very good. That's why I brought up Georg Cantor. There exist variations on the concepts of both infinity, and yes, zero. When I was 16 (a million years ago), I developed a transfinite system that I actually used to solve limit theory problems in high school in seconds. It involved concepts like nx0 and 0^n. I was asked to write a thesis on it at UofP. But, it was silly and I knew it. I was just joking around as Limit Theory tests were trivial and it kept me from "showing my work". But, I'm not an expert in "small pebbles used for counting on an abacus" (English for the Latin word Calculus).
Last edited by: QFIT on Apr 18, 2017
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
QFIT
QFIT
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April 18th, 2017 at 6:06:00 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Certainty of seeing a profit is Romes' definition of long-run.



Ahh, the word "profit" goes back to 14th Century Middle-English and has so many meanings. You can lose some cash in a casino, yet gain an eventual profit thereby. And that also applies to the "long run". In fact, I would suggest it is an important concept of the long run.

As an aside, there is also another meaning, that should not be overlooked in any endeavor. In Taming of the Shrew, Shakespeare wrote: "No profit grows where there is no pleasure ta'en". But, I'm not a linguist.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
QFIT
QFIT
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April 18th, 2017 at 6:34:52 PM permalink
Quote: TomG


I think RS nailed it in the very beginning. Rather than think about a specific number of hands, think about what x% chance you have of being within y% of your expected profits after z amount of time.



And I agree that's an important concept. As is RoR, which oddly hasn't been mentioned, as if bankroll isn't one of the most important aspects. I have a dozen free calculators at the below link that examine ways of looking at such.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/resourcespage.php?do=calcpage

I apologize if I have seemed to hijack this thread with what sounds like esoterica. There is method behind my madness (or vice-versa). It's just that I think precision is important, deep thought is important, and that we should make use of some great works that have preceded us. If you look at the forumulae in Blackjack Attack, some are incredibly intricate -- not even stable. The double barrier formula, I believe created by Peter Carr, is amazing, originally created for financial options trading (the area Thorp used to make a few hundred million).

But, I am not a financial analyst.:)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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April 19th, 2017 at 2:09:45 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Ahh, the word "profit" goes back to 14th Century Middle-English and has so many meanings. You can lose some cash in a casino, yet gain an eventual profit thereby. And that also applies to the "long run". In fact, I would suggest it is an important concept of the long run.

I think a discussion of the "long run" is quite useful.

A) IMO many people's idea of a good time is going to Vegas 5-10X and winning some money >50% of the visits. And a "system" is something which has allowed to them to win on >90% of their recent 10-50 visits.

B) For some +EV players, "long run" is some point where there is <1% (or <5%, or something) chance of really bad luck where there will be an overall gross/net loss. A point where the up & down fluctuations of luck are usually (99+%, 95+%, etc...) overcome by the underlying +EV.

-----
However, a third type of situation is not often discussed.
C) When a situation or game appears where you WILL NOT be able to reach the "long run" before the game disappears (e.g. a one-time one-day promotion at a new casino, or a slot machine appears which disappears three months later.

Sometimes, the edge is so high (e.g. BJ 2x-3x blackjacks) that professionals come out of the woodwork to hammer the one-day promotion.

But other times it is only a small edge.
"+EV" long-term analysis, may not be as useful as short-term playing tactics, which may include money management - actively looking at real-time win/loss to decide on strategy. I have not found much useful information on-line or in any books discussing "+EV" situations where you may only have 1-10% of the "long-run" time.

There is some analysis on-line of BJ rebate situations (especially high value $1-10 million situations), how much to bet, and when to leave with X profit.
Last edited by: mamat on Apr 19, 2017
mamat
mamat
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April 19th, 2017 at 2:16:24 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

But, if time is infinite, and my life span 100 years, then there is no chance that I am currently experiencing any perspective.

Look at the "Axiom of Choice" and the "Axiom of Countable Choice".

Another esoteric source says "we are actually billions/trilliosn of years in the future, and the 'now' we are experiencing is simply the replaying of an old memory...which is why the 'future' is already known".

There are many possible ways that time can be infinite (and what about things/life/existence outside of time, in non-time, in eternity, etc...).
There is probably no way to "prove" that we not "in the dream of a butterfly"... (The pre-Matrix-movie Matrix...)
QFIT
QFIT
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April 19th, 2017 at 3:53:43 AM permalink
Quote: mamat


C) When a situation or game appears where you WILL NOT be able to reach the "long run" before the game disappears (e.g. a one-time one-day promotion at a new casino, or a slot machine appears which disappears three months later.



Yes, I was thinking of mentioning an example of this. BJ 2:1 with no counting and flat-betting has an N0 of around 6,000. Typically, you won't count this game to avoid a backoff. But, as you say, pros come out of the woodwork for this game -- which can mean the game moves at a fast clip, even with a full table (and the table will be full). Nonetheless, knew a guy that played such a game 'til the end of the promotion, and lost. That's disappointing.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2017 at 4:04:26 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Nonetheless, knew a guy that played such a game 'til the end of the promotion, and lost. That's disappointing.

I guess he just didn't think positive enough.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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April 19th, 2017 at 4:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

Look at the "Axiom of Choice" and the "Axiom of Countable Choice".

Another esoteric source says "we are actually billions/trilliosn of years in the future, and the 'now' we are experiencing is simply the replaying of an old memory...which is why the 'future' is already known".

There are many possible ways that time can be infinite (and what about things/life/existence outside of time, in non-time, in eternity, etc...).
There is probably no way to "prove" that we not "in the dream of a butterfly"... (The pre-Matrix-movie Matrix...)



Yes, there are ways of getting around the apparent paradox of the absurdity of being alive at this moment in an ocean of time. In speaking of the death of a friend, Einstein said: "...the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.” And Quantum Theory expands on this. But, you could arguably trace this concept back to Bishop Berkeley, who argued against the Newtonian views of space/time. You could expand his theory of what we now call subjective idealism to deny the concept of death. But then, he died in 1753; so what does he know?:)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2017 at 5:50:29 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Yes, there are ways of getting around the apparent paradox of the absurdity of being alive at this moment in an ocean of time. In speaking of the death of a friend, Einstein said: "...the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.” And Quantum Theory expands on this. But, you could arguably trace this concept back to Bishop Berkeley, who argued against the Newtonian views of space/time. You could expand his theory of what we now call subjective idealism to deny the concept of death. But then, he died in 1753; so what does he know?:)

Did any of them make money gambling?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:03:28 AM permalink
Well, Quantum Theory includes corollaries that you can affect past events (delayed-choice) and cause actions at a great distance (quantum entanglement). Problem is, only been shown with particles. Can’t seem to get a Roulette ball to behave.:)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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