InTimeForSpace1
Joined: Apr 1, 2017
• Posts: 79
April 18th, 2017 at 2:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

I think that if you found a way to combine all of the above, then you would have the answer. If the infinite becomes countable. It seems to me that at any given time, that mass and motion, etc, "all" converge into "one" centered stream "at a time" within all possible streams, which are analogous to how we view time, itself, as a deterministic dimension in which all events of our time may be spread out. The universe just seems to know which stream is centered (within the "infinity" of time) when. It keeps the when on the what, ie, (physical and mental) arrangement on its (physical and mental) stuff, and versa.
Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 262
April 18th, 2017 at 2:38:06 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Depends on the game. In roulette there
is no long run, the wheel resets after
every spin. Every pocket has an equal
chance of getting the ball every time.
The wheel has no memory. Nothing
changes. You are the variable in the
game, the game itself is a rock.

Well, there's a long run. It's just that it's not good. Unless you've mastered Laurence Scott's aural techniques. Or, you find one of those British machines that shot balls mechanically. That was a mistake.:)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
• Posts: 19869
April 18th, 2017 at 2:40:32 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Or, you find one of those British machines that shot balls mechanically. That was a mistake.:)

All the machines that shoot balls are a
mistake, they're rigged to play like a
slot machine. They are not roulette, that
are not random.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 262
April 18th, 2017 at 2:43:32 PM permalink
There was a window where the UK machines were beatable. Alas, windows don't stay upon long. Must be the rain in London.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
• Posts: 19869
April 18th, 2017 at 3:14:17 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

There was a window where the UK machines were beatable. Alas, windows don't stay upon long. Must be the rain in London.

They run an algorithm. A few years ago some
machine repairmen in Chicago figured out
how to beat it and they took machines at
several casinos for a few hundred K. It's
been fixed now, mostly by speeding up
the spins and cutting the max bets.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12543
April 18th, 2017 at 4:25:39 PM permalink
I'm absolutely against any machine that shoots balls.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
• Posts: 913
April 18th, 2017 at 4:56:24 PM permalink
What a weird discussion this turned into.

Quote: Romes

Depends on what you determine "mathematically impossible" to be. Many in the math community agree after 4 decimal places (for most calculations, certainly not molecular/atom level for physics calculations) the rest of the decimals are erroneous.

Name one person in the math community who thinks this? A Powerball ticket has something like a one in 300,000,000 chance of winning, yet they do hit regularly. Does this really mean lotteries somehow violate the rules of mathematical possibilities.

Quote: Romes

I'll play 100,000 hands of blackjack, spreading 1-12, at a mixture of H17 and S17 games.

I'll bet anyone willing to take it, \$25,000 that after 100,000 hands I WILL BE POSITIVE from my starting bankroll.

I'll take that bet to win \$25,000 provided you give me something close to true odds. My 25-cents against your \$25,000. You should have a mathematical edge, as you claim it is mathematically impossible to be behind

Quote: Romes

My interpretation of the long run has always been the point at which it's mathematically impossible for you to be "down".

This is very wrong, even if we were to change the wording a bit to be "near certain" or something similar that doesn't allow for picking nits out of shit. This means a basic strategy player can never reach the long run no matter how many millions of hands they play ... someone with an extremely slim edge can never reach the long run in a life time of playing ... while someone who only uses match-play, free-play, and fun chips can reach the long run after a few dozen hands.

I think RS nailed it in the very beginning. Rather than think about a specific number of hands, think about what x% chance you have of being within y% of your expected profits after z amount of time.

Instead of saying you can reach the long run with one year of full time (40 hour weeks) play, it would be better to say after one year you have a 95% chance of being within 25% of expected profits.
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
• Posts: 913
April 18th, 2017 at 4:57:47 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

We could also entertain the argument that 100 divided by infinity does not equal zero
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12543
April 18th, 2017 at 5:19:52 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

while someone who only uses match-play, free-play, and fun chips can reach the long run after a few dozen hands.

You mean see a profit?

Even if you played thousands of match plays you probably wouldn't be at exactly the EV.

Year's ago, I played a nice little some of \$25 match plays. I ran horrible, especially on my double downs. I ended up breaking even during that period.

I ran teriffic on the \$50 match plays before and after that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
• Posts: 913
April 18th, 2017 at 5:43:06 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: TomG

while someone who only uses match-play, free-play, and fun chips can reach the long run after a few dozen hands.

You mean see a profit?

Certainty of seeing a profit is Romes' definition of long-run.