April 18th, 2017 at 12:42:56 PM
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Much more likely if Roams is in the room (-;Quote:QFITTheoretically, it is possible for all the oxygen in a room to move to one side of the room for an instant. It's just absurdly unlikely.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

April 18th, 2017 at 12:45:29 PM
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For the eradication of smallpox and measles (possibly in the future), 0 is very different from .0000001.Quote:RomesMy point is when the numbers are so minute... as in "history of the universe" status, then yes, mathematically speaking that's the same thing as 0. After 4 decimal places, no one usually worries anymore.

Mathematically speaking, small numbers are highly investigated. Consider "infinitesimals" and their use in the Newton-Leibnitz calculus.

As a gambler, I enjoy seeing some rare events; e.g. winning 15-17 hands in a row in Blackjack.

...and not others. Losing 29 of 30 hands (and pushing the other). Why couldn't I win 29 of 30 (and push the other)?

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For newbies, you can use (1) less than 1% (2) impossible.

It is helpful for newbies to know HOW RARE something is when you say "man I had really bad luck today".

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In the 1990s, I had to decide if I wanted Lasix on my eyes.

My optometrist said

(1) he had Lasix, and considered it fairly safe

(2) But if i didn't want a 0.5% chance of screwed up eyes (bad night vision, etc...), don't do it

(3) But if I did want to do it, his doctor never had a problem, and fixed other people's problems.

I chose not to take the 0.5% chance on Lasix, and stuck with contacts & glasses.

Sometimes people want the "sure thing" (not the "very likely").

April 18th, 2017 at 1:22:34 PM
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This is kind of exactly the idea behind my previous post.Quote:mamatFor the eradication of smallpox and measles (possibly in the future), 0 is very different from .0000001.

OMG you misspelled my name (like you did yours when signing up for this forum). ;-)Quote:AxelWolfMuch more likely if Roams is in the room (-;

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

April 18th, 2017 at 1:31:18 PM
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I read that any given real number, say, the square root of two, has zero chance of being selected randomly among all reals, but that it could still happen. More likely, there is no way to thus select a number of all the reals.Quote:mamatMathematically speaking, small numbers are highly investigated. Consider "infinitesimals" and their use in the Newton-Leibnitz calculus.

Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.

April 18th, 2017 at 1:43:51 PM
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Quote:QFITProblem is, if you say something that is highly unlikely never happens; I can prove that Martingale works.:)

Yup! I can confirm that Martingale works.

.

.

.

It's just a matter of how you define 'works'

$:o)

Embrace the Variance

April 18th, 2017 at 1:49:57 PM
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Well, when you deal with infinites, it gets confusing. There are an infinite number of positive integers. But, there are also an infinite number of negatives. And then, there are an infinite number of fractions between each pair of integer. Read up on transfinites, in particular Georg Cantor, on how to deal with such.

By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

April 18th, 2017 at 2:12:58 PM
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Time is not infinite from your perspective (which you're looking at for your individual life span).Quote:QFIT...By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

April 18th, 2017 at 2:19:22 PM
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But, if time is infinite, and my life span 100 years, then there is no chance that I am currently experiencing any perspective. Unless you take the Eternalist approach to the concept of time. But then, I'm not a metaphysicist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)

"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

April 18th, 2017 at 2:29:44 PM
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Quote:QFITBut, if time is infinite, and my life span 100 years, then there is no chance that I am currently experiencing any perspective. Unless you take the Eternalist approach to the concept of time. But then, I'm not a metaphysicist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)

basic probability is number of events you are looking for / total possible events. The assumption that time is infinite does not make the numerator or denominator infinity unless you believe in you are simultaneously living in many universes or something. There is a very large finite number of ways you might live and die and you would just divide them appropriately.

Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.

April 18th, 2017 at 2:31:03 PM
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Depends on the game. In roulette there

is no long run, the wheel resets after

every spin. Every pocket has an equal

chance of getting the ball every time.

The wheel has no memory. Nothing

changes. You are the variable in the

game, the game itself is a rock.

is no long run, the wheel resets after

every spin. Every pocket has an equal

chance of getting the ball every time.

The wheel has no memory. Nothing

changes. You are the variable in the

game, the game itself is a rock.

"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal