AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12543
April 18th, 2017 at 12:42:56 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Theoretically, it is possible for all the oxygen in a room to move to one side of the room for an instant. It's just absurdly unlikely.

Much more likely if Roams is in the room (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
• Posts: 354
April 18th, 2017 at 12:45:29 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

My point is when the numbers are so minute... as in "history of the universe" status, then yes, mathematically speaking that's the same thing as 0. After 4 decimal places, no one usually worries anymore.

For the eradication of smallpox and measles (possibly in the future), 0 is very different from .0000001.

Mathematically speaking, small numbers are highly investigated. Consider "infinitesimals" and their use in the Newton-Leibnitz calculus.

As a gambler, I enjoy seeing some rare events; e.g. winning 15-17 hands in a row in Blackjack.
...and not others. Losing 29 of 30 hands (and pushing the other). Why couldn't I win 29 of 30 (and push the other)?

-----
For newbies, you can use (1) less than 1% (2) impossible.
It is helpful for newbies to know HOW RARE something is when you say "man I had really bad luck today".

----
In the 1990s, I had to decide if I wanted Lasix on my eyes.
My optometrist said
(1) he had Lasix, and considered it fairly safe
(2) But if i didn't want a 0.5% chance of screwed up eyes (bad night vision, etc...), don't do it
(3) But if I did want to do it, his doctor never had a problem, and fixed other people's problems.

I chose not to take the 0.5% chance on Lasix, and stuck with contacts & glasses.
Sometimes people want the "sure thing" (not the "very likely").
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4052
April 18th, 2017 at 1:22:34 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

For the eradication of smallpox and measles (possibly in the future), 0 is very different from .0000001.

This is kind of exactly the idea behind my previous post.

Quote: AxelWolf

Much more likely if Roams is in the room (-;

OMG you misspelled my name (like you did yours when signing up for this forum). ;-)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
InTimeForSpace1
Joined: Apr 1, 2017
• Posts: 79
April 18th, 2017 at 1:31:18 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

Mathematically speaking, small numbers are highly investigated. Consider "infinitesimals" and their use in the Newton-Leibnitz calculus.

I read that any given real number, say, the square root of two, has zero chance of being selected randomly among all reals, but that it could still happen. More likely, there is no way to thus select a number of all the reals.
Believers are the ones who keep at it long after they've been told it can't be done. On the other hand, the real experts shouldn't care about the crackpots. But, if the wrong answer begs the question, then the wrong question begs the answer.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 1782
April 18th, 2017 at 1:43:51 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Problem is, if you say something that is highly unlikely never happens; I can prove that Martingale works.:)

Yup! I can confirm that Martingale works.
.
.
.
It's just a matter of how you define 'works'

\$:o)
Embrace the Variance
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 262
April 18th, 2017 at 1:49:57 PM permalink
Well, when you deal with infinites, it gets confusing. There are an infinite number of positive integers. But, there are also an infinite number of negatives. And then, there are an infinite number of fractions between each pair of integer. Read up on transfinites, in particular Georg Cantor, on how to deal with such.

By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4052
April 18th, 2017 at 2:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

...By my thinking, if time is infinite, and I will live for 100 years, then the odds of me being alive now are 100 divided by infinity, or zero. So, either I'm not alive, time isn't infinite, reincarnation exists, or all time instances exist at once (the most probable). But then, I'm not a mathematician.

Time is not infinite from your perspective (which you're looking at for your individual life span).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 262
April 18th, 2017 at 2:19:22 PM permalink
But, if time is infinite, and my life span 100 years, then there is no chance that I am currently experiencing any perspective. Unless you take the Eternalist approach to the concept of time. But then, I'm not a metaphysicist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
• Posts: 237
April 18th, 2017 at 2:29:44 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

But, if time is infinite, and my life span 100 years, then there is no chance that I am currently experiencing any perspective. Unless you take the Eternalist approach to the concept of time. But then, I'm not a metaphysicist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternalism_(philosophy_of_time)

basic probability is number of events you are looking for / total possible events. The assumption that time is infinite does not make the numerator or denominator infinity unless you believe in you are simultaneously living in many universes or something. There is a very large finite number of ways you might live and die and you would just divide them appropriately.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010