Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 1405
March 6th, 2017 at 3:46:06 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Well, how does that saying go? When you rule out everything as the reason, the most unlikely scenario as unlikely as it is has to be the case. The unlikely scenario in this case is the state of PA being corrupt rigging the games. If it's not a statewide thing, it's several casinos in the commissions pocket. Harrahs and Sands seems to fit that criteria. A little bit of research already tells me the Pennsylvania Gaming Commission has history of being corrupt.

There's also a reason why Sands is 2nd in the country in casino revenue only behind las vegas. Coincidence? I think not. Oh by the way Harrahs has a nice big carpet and remodeling they've done recently, i cant help but feel i funded that. Even with casinos cheating me im still up close to 25k, unbelievable really.


Please stop claiming this bs that they are cheating.
So why are so many others winning at the shops you mention? You think they only target you and let everyone else win?
Romes gave you a good suggestion, but No, you are so sure that you're playing almost perfect.
People make mistakes.why not have someone verify your play in a casino environment.
Or is this just another troll thread .
What we've got here is failure to communicate
Avincow
Avincow
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
  • Threads: 23
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March 6th, 2017 at 4:01:07 PM permalink
Quote: crazydazy

You answered your own question. You're 1 standard deviation below EV? The chance of that happening is 34% I believe.



Probability of being 1 SD or more outside the mean is 32%. Probability of being down more than 1 SD is 16%. Op's results are hardly out of the ordinary. Ridiculous that he would accuse people of cheating without sufficient evidence. The accusation is very insulting towards hard working owners and employees.
djatc
djatc 
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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March 6th, 2017 at 4:06:07 PM permalink
I think I was down 3 SDs on a blackjack play once

It was quite a weird experience
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG 
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 488
March 6th, 2017 at 4:38:54 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Please stop claiming this bs that they are cheating.
So why are so many others winning at the shops you mention? You think they only target you and let everyone else win?
Romes gave you a good suggestion, but No, you are so sure that you're playing almost perfect.
People make mistakes.why not have someone verify your play in a casino environment.
Or is this just another troll thread .



Listen, as much as you think i troll, i dont. I may sound like it, but im not some 10 yr old kid trolling blackjack forums or being paid to troll in any way. Im just completely frustrated that's all and i know people may find it annoying, i need to let it out some way and by ranting on the forums gives me a bit of a breather just to get it off my chest. Anyone that plays a game with a 1-1.5% edge with the amount of hours i put in should be able to understand where im coming from.

I got no one to check me out anyway, you guys make it seem like it's easy finding an AP that lives next to you. You make it seem like there's AP's right when you step outside across the street. You mention 'others' winning where i play, but that cant be proven over the internet and anyone can say what they want.

So far at Sands I've put in 201 hours to be exact and im up +559 there. At Harrahs i put in 108 hours with 1 deck cutoff S17, DAS, LS 6 deck games and im down -18,363 in the hole. Keep in mind ever since they switched from 8 decks to 6 decks i havent won ONE trip. Of those 108 hours, ive played maybe 60 hours at those 6 deck games and i dropped over 18k with those unbelievable rules and pen. LOL. Sands also has phenomenal rules S17,DAS,LS,RSA and i made $559. I was also in the hole at Sands at around -5k-10k on average for the whole 700 hours up until recently where i turned a good run and am now in the net positive there. Was actually up +4900 there until i dropped 4200 in two shoes today there and now im left with a measly 500 bucks in profit over 201 hours there.

So my results total after 716.5 hours overall is a +23,574. Yes, im winning but my EV is around 49k give or take, because i do play different games and different play styles as well as different bet sizes throughout these 716.5 hours due to bankroll fluctuation. But give or take i should be somewhere around 45k and im at 23k.

I knew this game was tough, but holy hell, this is the epitome of a grind. Now I know why blackjack is still offered nationwide and the world. It's just not easy. Really isnt. The thing that angers me is hearing about others have so much success. They make it seem so easy. I dont mind other people's success, but for example you have a guy 'smallcapgrowth' from the other forum who claims hes almost at a million. You got KJ who makes 6 figures a year or high 5 fiugres ever year. There's also others who ran up their bankroll so easily it seems. You got FLASH from the other forum who is a retired pro and made tons it seems playing blackjack. I just cant help but feel im as good as any of them, i play the best games, play optimal conditions, use a high level count(not that a higher level count means much but still).

Just very frustrated. Excuse my continous rants, but if i dont let it off my chest somewhere ill explode inside. I honestly would not have a problem losing if i had a huge bankroll and just played for fun, but growing a bankroll through counting cards has to be one of the most depressing things.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF >
ZenKinG
ZenKinG 
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 22
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March 6th, 2017 at 4:45:54 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If you have a 45K BR, and you think you are being cheated(why you keep going back is beyond me), I dont know why you don't take a vacation or something like that, and test out your skills in LV?



Because I want to have a good sized bankroll before heading out there. I want to have at least 55-60k in case i run into terrible variance and having rent/food expense/ and gas expense eating up my bankroll as well. Having around 55-60k lets me play for a decent hourly while also avoiding running into a bad streak and having to resize down. Last thing I want is running into a horrible streak, having to resize down and having to pay rent and other expenses. Apartments there in any decent area for a 1 bedroom are gonna be at least 800. There's really no studios i can find in any good area in vegas. The good area in vegas are all 1 bedroom and they start at 800+.

After doing the math i want to have at least bare minimum 50-55k. I also have jury duty coming up and that's been in the way of my moving out as i was really close to leave and was planning middle or end of this month since i was over the 50k threshold until i gave back 8k in 3 trips.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF >
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 137
  • Posts: 3535
March 6th, 2017 at 4:57:47 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Because I want to have a good sized bankroll before heading out there. I want to have at least 55-60k in case i run into terrible variance and having rent/food expense/ and gas expense eating up my bankroll as well. Having around 55-60k lets me play for a decent hourly while also avoiding running into a bad streak and having to resize down. Last thing I want is running into a horrible streak, having to resize down and having to pay rent and other expenses. Apartments there in any decent area for a 1 bedroom are gonna be at least 800. There's really no studios i can find in any good area in vegas. The good area in vegas are all 1 bedroom and they start at 800+.

After doing the math i want to have at least bare minimum 50-55k. I also have jury duty coming up and that's been in the way of my moving out as i was really close to leave and was planning middle or end of this month since i was over the 50k threshold until i gave back 8k in 3 trips.



Axel said "Vacation", not move out. Why not take a percentage of your bankroll and test your game out for a week in Vegas? I agree with those saying why go back to a place you feel is cheating you. There are other casinos in America besides PA. And if you don't want to spend dollars on a Vegas trip, have your tried AC? It's an hour away from Harrahs Philadelphia, the casino with the new carpet you feel is cheating. Expanding your playing houses will take one possible answer (cheating) away that you feel is hurting you.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG 
Joined: May 3, 2016
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March 6th, 2017 at 5:07:29 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Axel said "Vacation", not move out. Why not take a percentage of your bankroll and test your game out for a week in Vegas? I agree with those saying why go back to a place you feel is cheating you. There are other casinos in America besides PA. And if you don't want to spend dollars on a Vegas trip, have your tried AC? It's an hour away from Harrahs Philadelphia, the casino with the new carpet you feel is cheating. Expanding your playing houses will take one possible answer (cheating) away that you feel is hurting you.



AC has horrible games. It's also much further than the games i play in PA for the most part. The only decent games there are 50 minimum NMSE. Cant really be playing 50 off the top. I do sometimes but i wong out aggressively at -1. I have been thinking about AC though recently just to change the scenery a bit, as you can see im clearly disgusted with PA.

All i know is ill never recommend anyone try building a bankroll through counting cards. Maybe ive just been a bit unlucky and usually after this amount of hours you have a lot more to show for it, but if someone asked for my opinion, i would highly advise against counting to BUILD a BR.

I believe KJ had a rough start to his counting career as well. He used to play in AC and said he made about 20k grinding it for i dont know how long before moving out to vegas. He now is making around 6 figures on average. Just trying to see the positive sides of it, because this surely cant last. Unless NJ/PA is rigged of course and that's why KJ struggled as well. Maybe they started rigging it after Uston sued the life out of them. Mabye there's something hidden in the statutes that let's the state do as they please in terms of infringing on the games. I still remember in Vegas at Caesars while playing i said in a joking manner to the people at the table "I heard they cheat here". One of the pit bosses overheard me and said "It's all legal anyway right"?. Even though he was joking, red flags went on in my head. Maybe it is legal for casinos to cheat.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF >
BW21
BW21
Joined: Dec 30, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
ZenKinG
March 6th, 2017 at 5:15:31 PM permalink
Variance sucks in the modern card counting games. A lot of the old time card counters played single deck and double deck games with a 1/2 deck or less cut off and grinded it out with a better edge. The shoe games now require twice the patience. Most full time players will have several 300 to 400 hour losing streaks. In order to make money counting you need a lot of hours, which is why many APS have looked to other avenues. Keep your head up! If you really want to succeed at counting you will get out what you put in.
Kickass
Kickass
Joined: Nov 12, 2013
  • Threads: 11
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March 6th, 2017 at 5:58:37 PM permalink
I have been counting cards for 3 years. There were casinos that I simply could not beat even though I could spend few hundred hours counting cards there. But there were casinos that I exceeded my EV. For those casinos that I could not beat, I did not bother spending time thinking about it. I always spread my actions in different casinos. By spreading my actions, I get better comps and longevity in different casinos. I can understand your frustration but it's not going to help you if you focus on those casinos that you could not win. Why don't you spend time to find more casinos that you can beat? There are many casinos out there if you're willing to travel. It applies to almost everything in real life. If something doesn't work for you, move on or work around it.

As a side note, I got 86ed eventually at those casinos even though I lost a good chunk of money there.
Leave Katie alone. Rasul: Or what? Or I come back and break your F** legs
crazydazy
crazydazy
Joined: Aug 30, 2016
  • Threads: 6
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Thanks for this post from:
Romes
March 6th, 2017 at 6:00:19 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Listen, as much as you think i troll, i dont. I may sound like it, but im not some 10 yr old kid trolling blackjack forums or being paid to troll in any way. Im just completely frustrated that's all and i know people may find it annoying, i need to let it out some way and by ranting on the forums gives me a bit of a breather just to get it off my chest. Anyone that plays a game with a 1-1.5% edge with the amount of hours i put in should be able to understand where im coming from.

I got no one to check me out anyway, you guys make it seem like it's easy finding an AP that lives next to you. You make it seem like there's AP's right when you step outside across the street. You mention 'others' winning where i play, but that cant be proven over the internet and anyone can say what they want.

So far at Sands I've put in 201 hours to be exact and im up +559 there. At Harrahs i put in 108 hours with 1 deck cutoff S17, DAS, LS 6 deck games and im down -18,363 in the hole. Keep in mind ever since they switched from 8 decks to 6 decks i havent won ONE trip. Of those 108 hours, ive played maybe 60 hours at those 6 deck games and i dropped over 18k with those unbelievable rules and pen. LOL. Sands also has phenomenal rules S17,DAS,LS,RSA and i made $559. I was also in the hole at Sands at around -5k-10k on average for the whole 700 hours up until recently where i turned a good run and am now in the net positive there. Was actually up +4900 there until i dropped 4200 in two shoes today there and now im left with a measly 500 bucks in profit over 201 hours there.

So my results total after 716.5 hours overall is a +23,574. Yes, im winning but my EV is around 49k give or take, because i do play different games and different play styles as well as different bet sizes throughout these 716.5 hours due to bankroll fluctuation. But give or take i should be somewhere around 45k and im at 23k.

I knew this game was tough, but holy hell, this is the epitome of a grind. Now I know why blackjack is still offered nationwide and the world. It's just not easy. Really isnt. The thing that angers me is hearing about others have so much success. They make it seem so easy. I dont mind other people's success, but for example you have a guy 'smallcapgrowth' from the other forum who claims hes almost at a million. You got KJ who makes 6 figures a year or high 5 fiugres ever year. There's also others who ran up their bankroll so easily it seems. You got FLASH from the other forum who is a retired pro and made tons it seems playing blackjack. I just cant help but feel im as good as any of them, i play the best games, play optimal conditions, use a high level count(not that a higher level count means much but still).

Just very frustrated. Excuse my continous rants, but if i dont let it off my chest somewhere ill explode inside. I honestly would not have a problem losing if i had a huge bankroll and just played for fun, but growing a bankroll through counting cards has to be one of the most depressing things.



1. You might be over-estimating your EV, if you say after 716 hours you have generated 45k in EV that means you expect your hourly to be $62/hr. I don't know the game conditions you play, and the spread that you use/kelly fraction, but you could theoretically be over-estimating and it would be nice to know your exact strategy.

2. You might not be playing a perfect game. You don't know what mistakes you are making, because it is implicit that you wouldn't be making them if you had knowledge of them. What I mean is you might think you have a perfect game but in reality you might have a small leak some percentage of the time, everybody makes mistakes and to think in 716.5 hours you have played a PERFECT game with ZERO blunders would be laughable.

3. Small sample size. 716.5 hours at 60 hands/hr (you stated on other posts that you have an aggressive wong strategy) equates to 43k hands. 43k hands is nowhere near enough data to draw any statistically significant conclusions. At one point in this year I was running 2.7 SDs under EV, and am now just at EV. You said you are running at 1 SD under EV which is relatively normal.

The good news is that if everything you say is true, regression to the mean should make you feel good because when you start to run "normal" it's going to feel like running hot. Basically you are a favorite to run better than you are currently running and your next 716.5 hours should be easier than these. Variance can be a bankroll killer, not in its actual effect but by indirectly making people become less disciplined and "chasing losses" at the craps table. So if you are disciplined as you claim you are for a series of running bad, then you've already accomplished more than most.

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