WOW i finally figured out i have been overestimating my EV. Please verify

It looks like I have been grossly overvaluing card counting and my EV. I really hope someone can correct me, but my results to date seem to match my current discovery. Everyone always says that rounds observed when backcounting count towards your EV in CVCX. Well it turns out the software when you set it to backcount only counts rounds that you actually 'PLAY'. So instead of putting in lets say 60-80 rounds per hour that you observe and play, you're actually only supposed to be putting in lets say 30 for actual rounds PLAYED per hour. It is all starting to make sense now and card counting seems like a useless venture even at stakes of 2x50-2x250 that i thought were decent stakes.

If I got it all right and please someone confirm it for me. Playing with stakes of purely backcounting and wonging in at +1 with 2x50 and max bet of 2x250 at +5 playing 8 decks with S17,DAS,LS and a 1.5 deck cutoff my EV is only 27.95 per hour? Wow. No wonder my results after 700 hours is only about 25k. Using the pre set sims on CVCX my hourly is around $34, which is probably because of the departure point of when you stop backcounting.

Im quite disgusted. I guess I have been overvaluing card counting this whole time. The whole concept of ROUNDS OBSERVED counting towards your EV completely confused me and i was putting rounds observed into the sim. I hope im wrong, am i really making 27.95 per hour betting these stakes in this type of game with these rules? Does that sound right? Ugh. Maybe it's time to look for a new venture.

When I was on a team, we were back-counting or spotting + calling-in on LV strip shoes and wonging in at +2 TC using HiLo, flat-betting 2 hands at +2 or higher, and IIRC it was worth 1/8 of a round wager per call-in on average. I don't remember how frequent we were supposed to get a +2 or higher, but IIRC it was about once an hour (although it would take about 45 minutes to find a shoe to wong into, but 15 minutes or so of play). So we'd be making about 12.5% of our total wager, per hour.




Let's say we were flat-betting 2x$100, that'd mean we'd be making 16% of $200 or $25/hour.
At 2x$200, that's $50/hour
At 2x$300, that's $75/hour.
At 2x$400, that's $100/hour.
At 2x500, that's $125/hour.


Granted, these are typically 4.5 to 5 decks out of 6 deck pen games, H17, DAS, sometimes LS, unkn RSA games.


Given that 2x$100 would be about $25/hour, and your average bet is probably pretty close to that (although you'd be ramping), I'd say your EV of $30/hour or so is a fair estimate.

Quote: RS

When I was on a team. . . So we'd be making about 12.5% of our total wager, per hour.

And, RS, is it fair to say that that was the money 'earned' by, and shared between the team?
ZK was proposing to do all of that on his own and move rapidly from store to store thus burning up many hours in travel time. His single pair of eyes would surely see less opportunities than your team could.

Is it fair to say that from the start of his 'working day' he would likely make far, far less per hour? I'm thinking more like $10 per hour +/-$hundreds with typical variance.

Quote: OnceDear

And, RS, is it fair to say that that was the money 'earned' by, and shared between the team?
ZK was proposing to do all of that on his own and move rapidly from store to store thus burning up many hours in travel time. His single pair of eyes would see less opportunities than your team could.

Honestly, I can't really remember. For one, sometimes we played as a "large" group (6-8) and other times small group (2-3). My best guess, is when we were a large group, a specific BP would get seated about every 30-45 minutes (2-3 spotters, 2 purely BP's, and 2-3 that would spot, BP, or back-count as necessary). A group of 2, I'd say about a specific BP would wong-in every 60 minutes. Remember, it probably took about 15 minutes to actually play, so it'd take about 15 minutes fewer to get called into a shoe (ie: 15-30 minutes before a call-in for a BP in a large group, and 45 minutes for a small group). Perhaps I'm over-estimating how long it took to wong into a shoe, but I'm going from memory, here. But, we were also pretty aggressive with spotters wonging out and finding new tables quickly, and back-counters aggressively avoided back-counting bad shoes....and a lot of communication among players (back-counters switching tables, having BP's go to bathroom during shuffle [back-counting the shoe while he's gone], then calling him back in to the same table or sending him to another table when he got back from the "bathroom").

Then again, we usually aimed for relatively busy days with lots of action (LOL, one time it was so loud, I had to yell the count to the BP while at the table)....it's easy for a spotter to hand off a seat to an approaching BP, but very difficult for a back-counter to get a seat, since it was often (close to) standing-room-only.

Playing solo, a crude guesstimate would be 45-60 minutes average before wonging into a shoe, and you'd probably play about 12 rounds (assuming you only wong into shoes where you have at least 2 decks to play [why would you wong into a shoe with 1 or 2 rounds left?]).


There's a reason I play very little blackjack, and the small amount of BJ I do play, is on good DD games.

Quote: OnceDear

Is it fair to say that from the start of his 'working day' he would likely make far, far less per hour? I'm thinking more like $10 per hour +/-$hundreds with typical variance.

Totally crude estimates, but, I'd say probably spend 30% of the time just driving, parking, walking into casino, buying in, cashing out, walking to car, etc. etc. Probably more than 30%. On a 10-hour day, that's about 7 hours of actual casino time, even at $50/hour of casino-time, that's $350 for a 10-hour day or $35/hour. Probably hit 5-6 casinos in that time. I'd put 1 standard deviation at $2,500 or so for the day. Assuming a 2x$200 wong-in at a HiLo TC +2. If you're on the strip, probably lower down-time, higher EV, more casinos, etc.

I didn't need any simulations, calculations or 700 hours to know when you mentioned being able to make $90 an hour counting that estimate was hilariously ridiculous.

Don't you think a lot more AP's would be spending as much time as possible counting if that was the case.?There are guys much more skilled and banked than you who avoid counting whenever they can.

Is this going to be yet another excuse for a delayed Vegas trip?

Lots of counters make more than $90 an hour, the hourly isn't the issue, getting the hours in and keeping the welcome mat open while fading the volatility is the issue and what drives people to other routes.

If you want to work it out longhand and see if you're correct, just sim an all play, then isolate the TC frequencies and bet amounts/advantages you'd actually be putting money down on, the last step by hand if needed. That assumes your counting one table never abandoning it. There's a number of issues with assumed conditions (time to find new shoes, game speed, number of tables) that make simming back counting for anything other than % advantage innacurate. Sims also don't account for midshoe backoffs, etc

Quote: mcallister3200

Lots of counters make more than $90 an hour, the hourly isn't the issue, getting the hours in and keeping the welcome mat open while fading the volatility is the issue and what drives people to other routes.

If you want to work it out longhand and see if you're correct, just sim an all play, then isolate the TC frequencies and bet amounts/advantages you'd actually be putting money down on, the last step by hand if needed. That assumes your counting one table never abandoning it. There's a number of issues with assumed conditions (time to find new shoes, game speed, number of tables) that make simming back counting for anything other than % advantage innacurate. Sims also don't account for midshoe backoffs, etc

90 an hour? What stakes are they playing to get that? 2x800 max bet? Unless they are playing lots of heads up with a lot of open tables to song in and out of.

1) looks like you could learn to use the software better. I'm not an expert at it either.

2) you should probably be getting your max out earlier than +5 on a 1.5 cutoff, maxes that late are better for DD or abnormally good cuts. Look at your TC frequencies, it just doesn't justify waiting that long when they rarely occur.

Many counters with higher EV play with a higher NO and lower score than you seem to be, maxing around +3 and taking on a lot of variance in the process. Not for the faint of heart, why many AP's move on to "better" (in their mind) things.

Quote: mcallister3200

1) looks like you could learn to use the software better. I'm not an expert at it either.

2) you should probably be getting your max out earlier than +5 on a 1.5 cutoff, maxes that late are better for DD or abnormally good cuts. Look at your TC frequencies, it just doesn't justify waiting that long when they rarely occur.

Many counters with higher EV play with a higher NO and lower score than you seem to be, maxing around +3 and taking on a lot of variance in the process. Not for the faint of heart, why many AP's move on to "better" (in their mind) things.

This is solid advice.

It's not "that" hard to earn $100/hour in EV, except for the keeping the hours up. That's what Vegas is for though, quantity not quality.

Also, if you want to do this professionally, especially in a town that is quite hip to the idea of counting at this point, you're just going to have to find a happy medium and sacrifice EV for longevity. You need to learn the different tolerances of the different joints, pit rotations, etc, etc, and work within the spreads that won't get your name banned... because if you do you can keep playing, but when you inevitably move on to bigger/better things your name will be burned and that will make some things quite difficult.

Quote: mcallister3200

1) looks like you could learn to use the software better. I'm not an expert at it either.

2) you should probably be getting your max out earlier than +5 on a 1.5 cutoff, maxes that late are better for DD or abnormally good cuts. Look at your TC frequencies, it just doesn't justify waiting that long when they rarely occur.

Many counters with higher EV play with a higher NO and lower score than you seem to be, maxing around +3 and taking on a lot of variance in the process. Not for the faint of heart, why many AP's move on to "better" (in their mind) things.

I understand that, im just asking if the EV that is spitting out at 2x50-2x250 of 27.95 an hour is corect for exclusively backcounting?

My bet sizes are as follows.

Wong in +1 - 2x50
+2 - 2x100
+3 - 2x150
+4 - 2x200
+5 - 2x250

I guess what I really should be asking is that when you run simulation on CVCX, do you only put in the rounds PLAYED? If so, im putting in about 30 rounds per hour played rather than the 60-80 OBSERVED, that Norm and others always said that OBSERVED rounds count towards EV?

I feel completely misled over the years if this is true. I posted years ago about rounds OBSERVED and people said it counts towards EV, but the more I think about it, the crazier that notion actually sounds. The only rounds that matter are when you have an actual bet out there at an advantage. And when you put 30 rounds an hour for example into CVCX at these stakes, bet ramp, and rules you get 27.95 an hour in EV.

I feel completely mislead and bummed out now. At the same time im also relieved variance isnt as bad it seems and ive been hovering over EV for quite a while maybe the past 300-400 hours as well as not being as unlucky as I thought I have been. I guess I have a true grasp on the game now and just have to adjust my ramp and betting levels to get the EV that I want.

But please someone verify if im calculating EV the proper way when backcounting on CVCX. You should only put in the rounds actually PLAYED correct? If so someone usually gets about 20-30 rounds played backcounting correct?

Quote: ZenKinG

Wong in +1 - 2x50
+2 - 2x100
+3 - 2x150
+4 - 2x200
+5 - 2x250

With a 0.5% house edge wouldn't this be your EV in each count?:

+1 is EV of $0
+2 is EV of $1
+3 is EV of $3
+4 is EV of $6
+5 is EV of $10
+6 is EV of $12.5

If you only play +1 and higher, you'll definitely be getting at least 30% of your hands at +3 or higher, which must be at least $27 per hour if you're playing 30 hands per hour. With a $500 max bet and no bets and zero or negative, you should be doing better than the estimations you've come up with here

Quote: TomG

With a 0.5% house edge wouldn't this be your EV in each count?:

+1 is EV of $0
+2 is EV of $1
+3 is EV of $3
+4 is EV of $6
+5 is EV of $10
+6 is EV of $12.5

If you only play +1 and higher, you'll definitely be getting at least 30% of your hands at +3 or higher, which must be at least $27 per hour if you're playing 30 hands per hour. With a $500 max bet and no bets and zero or negative, you should be doing better than the estimations you've come up with here

how much do you think then? My mind has been back and forth the past couple of days. Im now doubting my past knowledge and dont even know what to think anymore regarding this.

Also my EV at +1 is not 0 because the TC advantage for +1 rises around .75% for the 1st TC and then levels off around .50% the rest of the way in added edge.

Well after re-reading Blackjack Attack by Don, it looks like i was originally correct all along before i even made this thread. Rounds seen do in fact count towards EV and it does make sense that it would. Let's say we see 100 rounds in the hour. By backcounting you're PLAYING about 25% of those rounds or 25 an hour. By not playing the other 75% disadvantage rounds or 75 rounds, you're SAVING MONEY. It all hit home when I realized that inputting 100 rounds an hour for a off the top wong out made more money than my 30 round an hour sim, bells went off in my head and the following question came to my mind. How could a player getting 100 rounds an hour playing at a disadvantage be making more than a backcounter who is seeing the same rounds but just choosing not to play those -EV hands? The answer is simple, they can't.

So im back to inputting 80-100 rounds an hour in CVCX for backcounting and taking into account rounds seen and observed. Looks like my hourly is back in the 90-110 an hour range. I dont think ive been averaging 100 though, maybe more like 80 so from now on i will be using the 80 figure.

Quote: ZenKinG

Looks like my hourly is back in the 90-110 an hour range. I dont think ive been averaging 100 though, maybe more like 80 so from now on i will be using the 80 figure.

Keep going back to your estimations until you get it right. You're not there yet.

For the rest of the thread: Yes, observed hands do count towards your bankroll as a $0 bet hand. Thus if you see any negative count, and are willing to jump in on the table if it goes good, that hand should count as a TC -1 (let's say) with a $0 bet. This is why wonging is so powerful because it allows you to put in $0 for your bets on all of your negative expectation TC's... saving the negative "gain per hand" that results from them.