|4 votes (44.44%)|
|5 votes (55.55%)|
9 members have voted
If an Ace is in the mix, the cards would have to come 5/6/Ace in some order (assuming H17 rules) and then could only bust if the 4 came next followed by the 7, correct?
OK after seeing the detailed rules I redid the sim. This time 6 deck,H17 I get HA of approx 6.35%. The strategy is raise 1x against dealer 2 or 3, raise 5x against dealer 4, 5, or 6, don't raise against A, 7, 8, 9, or 10 card.
What is the player advantage if the raise isn't necessary to trigger the graduated paytable? I know a dealer who does this & wouldn't let me correct him.. .
Just looking over the rules on #7 if the player busts, the wager stays active. I am assuming if you are playing heads up, the game would be over. Assuming heads up would change the odds or does the dealer still play the hand out looking for a pat hand or bust?
I compared my calculation for infinte deck to your simulation for 6 deck, S17, pay table 4. The difference between 6 deck and infinite deck is miniscule while the calculation is orders of magnitude easier for infinite.
I get element of risk of 4.93% vs your 4.01%.
The difference is in the 4-5-6-7 bonus calculation. For instance, with dealer showing 7 I calculate the total probability of hitting the bonus (suited or not) as 2 / 2197. With 13^3 = 2197 permutations of the next 3 cards coming only 2 of them - 456 and 546 - will win the bonus. Your table shows the bonus about 3 times more probable than my calculation. This also causes your strategy to raise 1x on a dealer 7 (mine doesn't).
I believe your simulation assumes that with dealer showing 7, the 6 can come as any of the next three cards. To win the 4567 bonus the dealer must bust, and for that to happen 6 can only come as the last card.