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islandman4life
islandman4life
Joined: May 13, 2016
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May 16th, 2016 at 11:26:14 AM permalink
If Basic strategy with continuous shuffler edge is 0.43286% and I have $10 and playing for 50cents a hand how much money i expect to lose?
Lets say if i go down from $10 to $8 and put on $2 and now i have $10 would i be able to get to $12 or is the probability of me getting to $12 high?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 16th, 2016 at 2:12:09 PM permalink
Quote: islandman4life

If Basic strategy with continuous shuffler edge is 0.43286% and I have $10 and playing for 50cents a hand how much money i expect to lose?

$10

in other words
all of it

just a matter of time playing against a house edge type game.
Quote: islandman4life

Lets say if i go down from $10 to $8 and put on $2 and now i have $10 would i be able to get to $12 or is the probability of me getting to $12 high?

turning $10 into $12 without a house edge is 10/12 or 83.33% success rate.
(and 83<>100)

Playing BJ makes that smaller

no matter the starting bankroll, play long enough and with any type of money management
the probability = 1 that all the money will be lost

this was proven mathematically way back way back
in the 1600s and still is valid today
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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May 16th, 2016 at 2:17:34 PM permalink
Quote: islandman4life

If Basic strategy with continuous shuffler edge is 0.43286% and I have $10 and playing for 50cents a hand how much money i expect to lose?
Lets say if i go down from $10 to $8 and put on $2 and now i have $10 would i be able to get to $12 or is the probability of me getting to $12 high?



IM4L, I already directed you to the answer to this.
Regardless of what happened before. If you have $10 and want to play blackjack at 50c a hand until you have $12 or you are bust, then

Your very best probability of success is approx (10/12) =83% if you absolutely stop if target met.
In reality, say somewhere in the region 70% to 80%

As Sally says, if you keep playing after hitting that magic $12, then you can expect to lose it all.
Embrace the Variance
islandman4life
islandman4life
Joined: May 13, 2016
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May 16th, 2016 at 5:44:30 PM permalink
I have hit $12 3 times and got wipe out on the fourth. What if i martingale?
For example I am at $10 and i am losing and i keep doubling my bet what is the probability of me getting to $12 with a martingale system? Will I still end up getting wipe out?
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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May 16th, 2016 at 5:49:43 PM permalink
same outcome, but quicker
Embrace the Variance
islandman4life
islandman4life
Joined: May 13, 2016
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May 16th, 2016 at 6:36:44 PM permalink
OK Thanks for all of the replies I appreciate it.
What if i play baccarat and bet on the banker always. and get to $12 and take off $2 and leave with $10 will i be able to do this?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 16th, 2016 at 7:11:13 PM permalink
Quote: islandman4life

OK Thanks for all of the replies I appreciate it.

you are not understanding what the values mean.

say you could (not really) win 83% of the time (every time) that $2
turn 10 into 12

so out of each 100 game session
83 times you win $2 and the other 17 times you lose 10

+166
+
-170 = -4

it is a loser

and you can not do that consistently, actually would do much worse
against a house edge game

because when you win
they short pay you right there and you have no clue what just happened

that is cuz the games you play are not fair
in other words
the games are stacked in the casino's favor

so play for fun only
and yell and scream on each win and each loss
that should be super fun!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Romes
Romes 
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 18th, 2016 at 6:45:47 AM permalink
Quote: islandman4life

If Basic strategy with continuous shuffler edge is 0.43286% and I have $10 and playing for 50cents a hand how much money i expect to lose?
Lets say if i go down from $10 to $8 and put on $2 and now i have $10 would i be able to get to $12 or is the probability of me getting to $12 high?

lol so baccarat is out and now we're on to BJ? Well, this is more in my wheelhouse of expertise... but the answer is going to be the same. You're playing a negative expectation game. If you try to "hit and run" with $12 each time you're going to eventually get enough hands to make it to the long run. Your bankroll doesn't care if you take breaks, make it to 12 and then "reset," etc. Your bankroll is one continuous line that will inevitably go down to the negative expectation of the game.

If your'e betting 50 cents per hand with a .433% house edge, then your EV per hand is (.5)*(-.0433) = -0.022. So on average you're going to lose a little more than 2 cents per hand. Your'e thinking "well, this isn't that much!" but it's EVERY hand. If you play 100 hands per hour that's $2.20 per hour. That's the amount you want to make, but you're going to (on average) lose that per hour every hour you ever play the game.

You could get some variance and get lucky, but at that point if you're inviting the variance, why not just deposit $10 and bet the $10... sometimes you'll cash out $10 sometimes you'll lose $10.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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