Rio481
Rio481
Joined: Mar 11, 2016
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April 24th, 2016 at 8:10:09 PM permalink
Just returned from Las Vegas. Stayed at the Aria. It's not cheap, but a really nice place to stay. I walked through the casino Thr night, and had to shake my head. The 6D 6:5 CSM tables were packed. I can understand some people being drawn in with the $10 minimum, but was shocked at the number of folks who were playing strictly green/black at these tables with good $25 games the next table over. I understand a lot of people play strictly recreationally, but this is like paying $2.15 for gas when the station right across the street is selling it at $1.95. I'm more convinced than ever that 6;5 is here to stay and it's only a matter of time before it spreads to the higher limit games.

The good news is I was still able to find a couple $10 3:2 games on the strip, and an excellent $10 pitch game in a nice off-strip resort. And I won 83% of my starting bankroll in only about 5 hours!
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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April 24th, 2016 at 8:23:27 PM permalink
Yes, it's weird to see people playing 6:5. They think it's only a $3 difference on a $10 bet. But they don't consider that you'll get a blackjack about every 21 hands.

Reminds me of the SD blackjack at the Rio where blackjack pays even money. And that's even worse than 6:5.
RenoGambler
RenoGambler
Joined: Apr 23, 2016
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April 24th, 2016 at 8:46:26 PM permalink
When I was down in Vegas last week I didn't even bother with blackjack on the Strip. There are far superior conditions downtown. But it's disappointing that so many people are willing to play the dreadful 6:5 games. Unfortunately, it looks like they're here to stay and will likely keep spreading.
Variance giveth and variance taketh away.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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April 24th, 2016 at 11:36:31 PM permalink
As a game designer, I can say that conditions never change unless game protection issues warrant it, and in those terms AP did kill the golden goose. There are no payout changes to craps, Pai Gow Poker, roulette, etc., over the years, only blackjack, and for this reason. The squeaky wheel got the grease.

I can understand the nostalgia ["*sigh*, the good old days of 3:2 Blackjack, - things were so much better then...*sigh*..."] as well as the operator's point of view ["Thank God THAT door is closing on them, - it's nice to see positive table hold numbers on a consistent basis..."]
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Tarzan
Tarzan
Joined: Sep 16, 2013
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April 25th, 2016 at 12:14:59 AM permalink
I'll be very interested to see how that works out for them. Will they increase their earnings or will they lose a sufficient volume of business in the long haul that the gain in house advantage cannot overcome only to arrive at an overall loss? Blackjack on the strip was once totally awesome. Now it's about gouging out the public in the quickest, most effective manner possible as if cleaning out gamblers a little faster for their gambling stake makes any difference at all. You didn't make any more money than you would have before, you merely made the same amount a little faster than you would have before. I guess the thinking is that if you pummel the sh*t out of them, those f*ck*rs will maybe bring more cash next time? Will it have that effect or will the gamblers figure out that since I am horribly unlucky at XYZ casino I need to play elsewhere? That's the dumb ones who don't figure out in no time at all that 6:5 turns it into a carnival game. I think competition will keep the 6:5 nonsense to a dull roar at low level tables and time will tell how this grand experiment works out. What if they go total FUBAR on it and once they realize that they are losing money from going to 6:5 and it was a horrible mistake they will have to try and make up the losses with a new blackjack variant, "F U Blackjack", designed to pick off stray drunks or in case the banjo player from "Deliverance" strolls in flush with cash. "F U Blackjack is a lot like regular blackjack except if the dealer draws a card that he breaks on or doesn't make a hand between 17-21 it goes in the discard and he draws another card. If the dealer has to pull 3 or more cards to make a hand between 17-21 this is known as the "reverse double down" and the player loses double but in examining AC as a model on this sort of strategy, it's a lot easier to send the customers packing to never return than it is to get them to come back, especially if the competition is offering a better game.
Tarzan
Tarzan
Joined: Sep 16, 2013
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April 25th, 2016 at 12:20:01 AM permalink
Quote: Rio481

Just returned from Las Vegas. Stayed at the Aria. It's not cheap, but a really nice place to stay. I walked through the casino Thr night, and had to shake my head. The 6D 6:5 CSM tables were packed. I can understand some people being drawn in with the $10 minimum, but was shocked at the number of folks who were playing strictly green/black at these tables with good $25 games the next table over. I understand a lot of people play strictly recreationally, but this is like paying $2.15 for gas when the station right across the street is selling it at $1.95. I'm more convinced than ever that 6;5 is here to stay and it's only a matter of time before it spreads to the higher limit games.

The good news is I was still able to find a couple $10 3:2 games on the strip, and an excellent $10 pitch game in a nice off-strip resort. And I won 83% of my starting bankroll in only about 5 hours!


If you have people stupid enough to play it, they will offer it. In time they'll figure out it was a bad move one way or the other!
RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
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April 25th, 2016 at 1:43:58 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

As a game designer, I can say that conditions never change unless game protection issues warrant it, and in those terms AP did kill the golden goose. There are no payout changes to craps, Pai Gow Poker, roulette, etc., over the years, only blackjack, and for this reason. The squeaky wheel got the grease.



The position that you are taking--that the dreaded AP's forced the change to 6:5 blackjack--seems to go against the grain of most articles on the subject. First of all, the idea of AP play (counting) being possible led to the increase in the popularity of blackjack, which has been talked about more than once. More players failing as counters meant more money for the casinos to take. Second, most of the commentary here has been that AP's actually take less money from the blackjack tables than the casinos spend trying to prevent it. To me, that sounds like a nuisance more than a reason to change the rules. You've made a statement about "why" the conditions changed--can you provide some proof of that?

Absent proof, the reason behind 6:5 is much the same as the changes to craps rules in some places that have them paying 30 for 1 instead of 30 to 1. Subtle, mostly unnoticed by the average uneducated gambler, but suddenly the game edge changes a little bit. The player frets a bit on the first underpaid blackjack, sips on his drink, and puts out his next bet. Yes, he should walk away if there is a table anywhere in town that offers 3:2 at his level, but he is here and so his his drink. Once he accepts the first underpayment and moves on, it no longer matters that the pay is short or the house edge is higher.

6:5 is a way for the house to keep more money than 3:2. They may be in bad shape and need the money, they may be unable to run good promotions to draw players, the boss may have said I need a higher hold, etc. It matters little what the reason is...it is another way to shear the sheep a little quicker.

This is the same as tightening the slot machines or any other change...get the money quicker. The sheep won't notice!
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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April 25th, 2016 at 4:37:13 AM permalink
Quote: RonC



This is the same as tightening the slot machines or any other change...get the money quicker. The sheep won't notice!



There are three kinds of sheep. Those who do not notice and those who do not care. I have explained 6:5 to people smart enough to understand, but get a "meh" in return. They consider it a cost of the free drinks and pretty surroundings. Others just do not know the math. 6 is higher than 3 so it must be better! Still others don't know 3:2 is the "real" rule and just assume 6:5 is how it is.

Like many battles, this one is lost. Vegas visitors now care more about everything else in the adult Disneyland than they do the tables.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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April 25th, 2016 at 4:57:29 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

There are no payout changes to craps, Pai Gow Poker, roulette, etc., over the years, only blackjack, and for this reason.



Moving from single zero to double zero wasn't a change in payout?
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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April 25th, 2016 at 5:00:39 AM permalink
Reminds me of this:

One of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by Americans occurred in the early 1980s, when the A&W restaurant chain released a new hamburger to rival the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. With a third-pound of beef, the A&W burger had more meat than the Quarter Pounder; in taste tests, customers preferred A&W’s burger. And it was less expensive. A lavish A&W television and radio marketing campaign cited these benefits. Yet instead of leaping at the great value, customers snubbed it.

Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/07/great-third-pound-burger-ripoff


Though, I still wonder about the long term value of these decisions. People might not know the math, they might not care when the free drinks are flowing. But it seems to me that, over time, they will realize that they are running out of money more quickly and that they have few winning sessions.

There are the degen types, who might be addicted to losing, or oblivious or indifferent to their real losses. But I still suspect the current Vegas strategy of grabbing you by the ankles, holding you upside down and shaking every penny out as quickly as possible, might lead to a slow loss of customers over a decade or two, especially with ever more convenient options available close to home. I think there's a point where the common wisdom becomes "Vegas is one of the worst rip offs in the world," and they won't be able to get that toothpaste back in the tube.

But that's of little concern to current corporate executives.

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