Deuces Wild BJ side bet
I didn't think about this side bet much until I left the casino. It seems like a very countable side bet. I looked online everywhere for more info on this bet but couldn't dig anything up. If anyone has experience with this side bet or could post a link of the origin of this side bet it would be much appreciated. Thanks!
P.S. Sorry I don't have more info on the payout table.
Player has 2/10 in initial two cards, then receives 10 to 1 on the Deuces Wild bet.
Player has 2/7 in initial two cards, then receives 7 to 1 on the Deuces Wild bet.
Player has 2/4 in initial two cards, then receives 4 to 1 on Deuces Wild bet.
http://www.playags.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/AGS_DeucesWild_RackCard.pdf
Didnt see AJ 1-1 on website
http://www.playags.com/portfolio/deuces-wild/
2/A pays 11-to-1
2/10 pays 10-to-1
2/9 pays 9-to-1
2/8 pays 8-to-1
2/7 pays 7-to-1
2/6 pays 6-to-1
2/5 pays 5-to-1
2/4 pays 4-to-1
2/3 pays 3-to-1
2/2 pays 2-to-1
2/J,Q,K pays 1-to-1
House edge 6 decks = 5.689%
House edge 2 decks = 5.228%
Obviously crushable by card counting. The following system has betting correlation 0.992:
A, 10 = 0
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, Q, K =+1
2 = -10.
2 with A 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
j-k 1
No math whiz, just trying Win $65 plus 13 as payoffs are to 1, not for one. Hit all 13 combos .
Just getting close, 1 in 13 for a duece, 13 in 13 for all payoff combos. 9 I said getting close )
169/2 =84,5 bet for $78 return = 8.3% HE
Expect the correct answer is just a few minutes, I am fairly certain.
Quote: Mow21...a very countable side bet...
I hope it's dealt from a shoe and not from a continuous shuffle machine.
Here's a nice simple count: twos = -3; and faces (but not 10-spots, of course) +1. The bet should be +EV above a true count of +1.
Another count is: twos = -6; faces, threes, fours, and fives = +1. The bet should be +EV above a true count of +2.
Betting correlation = 0.943.Quote: ChesterDogHere's a nice simple count: twos = -3; and faces (but not 10-spots, of course) +1. The bet should be +EV above a true count of +1.
Betting correlation = 0.989. Much better!Quote:Another count is: twos = -6; faces, threes, fours, and fives = +1. The bet should be +EV above a true count of +2.
The game was out of a 6D shoe. H17, no surrender, .75-1.25 decks cut off (which I think is pretty decent)
Deuces Wild - BJ side bet
2-2 ............. 20-1
2-10............ 10-1
2-9.............. 9-1
2-8.............. 8-1
2-7.............. 7-1
2-6.............. 6-1
2-5.............. 5-1
2-4.............. 4-1
2-3.............. 3-1
2-A,K,Q,J... 1-1
I was mistaken last time I saw the table. It said A-J 1-1 (I thought that meant AJ BJ) which means A,K,Q,J 1-1.
This seems extremely exploitable as some have mentioned in the comments! Would counting this be better than Hi-Lo?
Depends on what the max bet is (probably only $25). So even if it's exploitable they might not let you bet very much when you do have an advantage, thus you won't make much off of it.Quote: Mow21...This seems extremely exploitable as some have mentioned in the comments! Would counting this be better than Hi-Lo?
Okay ... time to do the AP analysis ... okay, it looks like a max bet of $25 at DW has about the same earning power for the counter as a max bet of $500 as an ordinary hi-lo card counter. Details soon.Quote: Mow21It is indeed a max of $25. If only it were more it could offer a decent return.
Here are the details. Using the count system (0,-10,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,1,1) - in the order A, 2, 3, 4, ... , J, Q, K - in a six-deck shoe game with the cut card at 260 cards (1 deck from the end):Quote: Mow21It is indeed a max of $25. If only it were more it could offer a decent return.
Trigger true count = + 3
EV per bet = 14.39%
Bet frequency = 30.23%
Units won per 100 hands = 4.35.
With a $25 unit, the counter earns about $108 per 100 hands.
To put this in perspective, blackjack hi-lo card counting using the illustrious and a 1-8 spread wins about 0.22 max bets per 100 hands. So, the ordinary card counter would need to have a maximum bet of roughly $500 to equal the earning power from betting $25 on Deuces Wild. In other words, DW is about 20 times as good as ordinary blackjack card counting.
I'll double check this, then I'm posting it to APHeat. In the mean time, someone's going to get a spanking.
Quote: teliotHere are the details. Using the count system (0,-10,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,1,1) - in the order A, 2, 3, 4, ... , J, Q, K - in a six-deck shoe game with the cut card at 260 cards (1 deck from the end):
Trigger true count = + 3
EV per bet = 14.39%
Bet frequency = 30.23%
Units won per 100 hands = 4.35.
With a $25 unit, the counter earns about $108 per 100 hands.
To put this in perspective, blackjack hi-lo card counting using the illustrious and a 1-8 spread wins about 0.22 max bets per 100 hands. So, the ordinary card counter would need to have a maximum bet of roughly $500 to equal the earning power from betting $25 on Deuces Wild. In other words, DW is about 20 times as good as ordinary blackjack card counting.
I'll double check this, then I'm posting it to APHeat. In the mean time, someone's going to get a spanking.
Ooh! Is there an invited audience? (kidding). Appreciate the work and the info, teliot.
Quote: teliotIn other words, DW is about 20 times as good as ordinary blackjack card counting.
That's incredible. Thank you for your work!
The desirability index is 30.2. If you know what that number means, then you know just how good this is. Enjoy. Then tell us the story (or write it up for my blog).Quote: Mow21That's incredible. Thank you for your work!
In this day, with all of the information out there, and all of the efforts I have personally made to help educate the industry, there are still those who believe the moon landing was a hoax.
I noticed that you had A as 0 even though the payout for 2-A is 1-1. There was some confusion when I started the thread that 2-A was 11-1 but after seeing the table today (and posting it to the thread earlier & down below) it is the same as K,Q, and J.
2-2 ............. 20-1
2-10............ 10-1
2-9.............. 9-1
2-8.............. 8-1
2-7.............. 7-1
2-6.............. 6-1
2-5.............. 5-1
2-4.............. 4-1
2-3.............. 3-1
2-A,K,Q,J... 1-1
Would A still be counted as 0 with the above table?
Also, I noticed you said true trigger value +3. Does that mean that immediately when the count for DW goes to +3 I bet the max($25)? There is no bet ramp like Hi-Lo?
Thank you for being kind and taking the time to analyze this!
This is a new pay table, hence a new count system. First of all, the house edge for this new pay table is slightly higher at 7.3213%. As for the count system, the following is quite strong:Quote: Mow21I noticed that you had A as 0 even though the payout for 2-A is 1-1. There was some confusion when I started the thread that 2-A was 11-1 but after seeing the table today (and posting it to the thread earlier & down below) it is the same as K,Q, and J.
2-2 ............. 20-1
2-10............ 10-1
2-9.............. 9-1
2-8.............. 8-1
2-7.............. 7-1
2-6.............. 6-1
2-5.............. 5-1
2-4.............. 4-1
2-3.............. 3-1
2-A,K,Q,J... 1-1
Would A still be counted as 0 with the above table?
3, 4, 5, 6, J, Q, K, A = +1
2 = -8
7, 8, 9, 10 = 0
Trigger true count = +3
Average edge = 16.81%
Bet frequency = 26.96%
Units won per 100 hands = 4.53
The win rate is better -- mainly because keeping track of 2's now correlates to the premium hand 2/2 that pays 20-to-1. (The game developer should have designed it to pay 22-to-1, by the way, house edge = 6.18%, don't you think?).
Either bet $25 or don't bet. No ramp.Quote:Also, I noticed you said true trigger value +3. Does that mean that immediately when the count for DW goes to +3 I bet the max($25)? There is no bet ramp like Hi-Lo?
You owe me a story for my blog.Quote: Mow21Awesome, thanks!
Quote: teliotThis is a new pay table, hence a new count system. First of all, the house edge for this new pay table is slightly higher at 7.3213%. As for the count system, the following is quite strong:
3, 4, 5, 6, J, Q, K, A = +1
2 = -8
7, 8, 9, 10 = 0
Trigger true count = +3
Average edge = 16.81%
Bet frequency = 26.96%
Units won per 100 hands = 4.53
The win rate is better -- mainly because keeping track of 2's now correlates to the premium hand 2/2 that pays 20-to-1. (The game developer should have designed it to pay 22-to-1, by the way, house edge = 6.18%, don't you think?).
Either bet $25 or don't bet. No ramp.
Average edge 17% ?
Bet Freq 27%. ?
Wow. This is way worse than my own Lucky Win Baccarat.
It's enough to make me change sides....
Sorry, I assumed Wonging and 8-to-1.Quote: mcallister3200Are there really competent blackjack card counters out there who only spread 1-8 on shoe games? (Other than that semi retired abrasive guy)
Quote: teliotSorry, I assumed Wonging and 8-to-1.
Ah ok. Makes sense.
Quote: PaigowdanIt's enough to make me change sides....
Lol, right.
http://apheat.net/2016/02/19/card-counting-the-deuces-wild-blackjack-side-bet-6-decks/
◾2/A pays 1-to-1
◾2/10 pays 10-to-1
◾2/9 pays 9-to-1
◾2/8 pays 8-to-1
◾2/7 pays 7-to-1
◾2/6 pays 6-to-1
◾2/5 pays 5-to-1
◾2/4 pays 4-to-1
◾2/3 pays 3-to-1
◾2/2 pays 2-to-1
◾2/J,Q,K pays 1-to-1
◾Others lose
