Worst possible play in blackjack
Give the hand and the decision.
Quote: sodawaterWithout looking it up, what do you think is the single-worst decision possible in blackjack given the following: 6 decks, stand 17, no surrender, DAS, no counting.
Give the hand and the decision.
Hitting a hard 21 or surrendering a blackjack are my guesses.
Edit: Didn't read the "no surrender" rule.
Definitely hitting hard 21 is the worst.
Quote: Mission146Doubling on a Hard-20 against a Dealer showing Six.
incorrect
Quote: RSHitting a hard 21 or surrendering a blackjack are my guesses.
Edit: Didn't read the "no surrender" rule.
Definitely hitting hard 21 is the worst.
They don't let you hit hard 21 in blackjack. Just to be clear I will edit my post to include this.
Quote: BoulderDamItSplitting 10s w/Dealer showing a 9?
nope!
Quote: sodawaterincorrect
Worst in terms of what? Expected Value or swing in Expected Value? I can't imagine a bigger swing in EV than doubling hard-20 against a dealer six.
Quote: Mission146Worst in terms of what? Expected Value or swing in Expected Value? I can't imagine a bigger swing in EV than doubling hard-20 against a dealer six.
Worst in terms of swing in expected value.
Quote: Mission146Standing a soft-12 against a dealer six?
haha nope, that's actually a lot better decision than your last guess.
Quote: michael99000Hitting a hard 20 vs a dealer 8
Nope
Quote: NumpkinSplit 10s against dealer 10, then keep splitting if you get another 10 up to the maximum hands allowed, and double any hands that your didn't get a 10 or the maximum hands allowed are reached.
Nope, and the question was for a single decision anyway.
Quote: BoulderDamItNot splitting AA or 88 against a 7?
Standing on soft 12 vs 6?
Quote: BoulderDamItNot splitting AA or 88 against a 7?
You didn't say what you would do with the hands. Standing would be pretty bad but would it be worse than doubling a hard 20?
TLDR: double hard 20 vs dealer 10
*Standing on AA V6?
Standing on 11 Vs 6? instead of doubling?
Quote: NumpkinOk so the worst SINGLE play would be to get the most money out at a time, while busting yourself. By this logic doubling a hard 20 is definitely the single play that gets most money on the table while busting yourself. Now the question is against what dealer card? Well in case you caught an Ace with your double and the dealer has to make a 21 to tie it, so the dealer card should be the card that most likely to make a 21. IIRC, that card (in a S17 game) would be a 10.
TLDR: double hard 20 vs dealer 10
Actually it's a 2 (in fact 10 is the upcard where the dealer is the LEAST likely to make a 21, since it's the only upcard where the dealer would have to draw at least two non-ten cards, and a 2 provides the most outlets for the dealer to do so). Now the dealer is more likely to reach 20 with a 10 up, but not 21.
ETA: Link to the Wizard's appendix showing this.
That would make it a double.
I'm pretty sure the worst is doubling hard 20 vs dealer 5.
There's a 1/13 chance of not busting, while standing would have an extremely high chance of a win. You're turning your position from "there's only 1 way to lose" to "there's only 1 way to win", and you're doing it by putting even more money at risk.
Sidenote: I really don't understand the point of the question. I'm seeing lots of "nope, that's wrongs", and not a lot of discussion about why.
That's not always the case in every game. Perhaps in BJ that might be and that's what we are talking about.Quote: DieterTo be the worst play decision, it has to simultaneously increase the amount of money at risk and increase the chances of losing.
Quote: sodawaterThey don't let you hit hard 21 in blackjack. Just to be clear I will edit my post to include this.
Of course you can hit a hard 21 in blackjack. As long as the player has not busted (and hasn't restricted his hand from being hit, ie: doubled down or split Aces), he is permitted to hit.
Even though your post is referring to 6D games, you CAN hit a hard 21 in hand-held games.
I'd think doubling 20v7, 20v8, or 20v9 has got to be pretty damn high on the "this play absolutely sucks" list. With a 20v8, you're in damn good shape, since a 9,T,J,Q,K,A as the HC is an automatic winner.
(see https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/)
Player's Expected Return by Standing
Player's
Hand Dealer's Up Card
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ace
20 0.639987 0.650272 0.661050 0.670360 0.703959 0.773227 0.791815 0.758357 0.554538 0.655470
21 0.882007 0.885300 0.888767 0.891754 0.902837 0.925926 0.930605 0.939176 0.962624 0.922194
He insisted on taking even money anyway saying "It's the best bet in a casino."
Floor was called, and explained he will receive 3:2 payout. He said "No. I want even money."
If I had a gun, I would have shot him.
Quote: sodawaterWithout looking it up, what do you think is the single-worst decision possible in blackjack given the following: American rules, 6 decks, stand 17, no surrender, DAS, no counting. (and no hitting/doubling any 21s)
Give the hand and the decision.
You need more qualifiers on your choices.
Obviously with a pair of 10's the best decision is to STAND and the worse decision is to DOUBLE. Given the Dealer up card , in order here is the progression from AWFUL to REALLY BAD. This is the correct answer to your question as posed.
DEALER
8
7
9
6
5
A
4
3
2
10
Quote: AxelWolfdoubling 20 V A
That is actually the sixth worst play.
I think you want to restrict the decision between the best choice and the second best choice and also you want to rule out no-brainers like player 10,9 against a dealer 7. The obvious answer is STAND, with either HIT or DOUBLE as terrible choices.
Possibly a more interesting question is:
I think on infinite deck analysis {I use probability of winning, so to get EV use 2x-1.}Quote: pacomartinPossibly a more interesting question is which hand is the closest EV between correct choice and second best choice?
(i) 16v10 (Hit vs Stand) .212388 .212109 [UK rules] [The strategy based on 6 decks depends on the cards held].
(ii) A4 v 4 (Double vs Hit) .529213 .529643 [The strategy based on 6 decks is to Double, but infinite isn't].
(iii) 12 v 4 (Stand vs Hit) .394468 .393332 [The strategy based on 6 decks is to hit 10 2 and stand others (split 6-6)].
I suspect that if the actual cards were taken into consideration various 16's vs 10 would be very close.
I know that 10 2 vs 4, 10 3 vs 2, 10 2 A vs 2 change because of the card combinations (i.e. already having a 10 thus reducing your chances of busting).
This is not an academic question and is quite useful. Players should consider close plays and either always pick the same way or use their judgement as to which of the two options to make - in this way rather than just playing in automatic "correct strategy" mode, you actually have an intellectual choice! I will nearly always hit the 10 2 and 10 3 above, and occasionally 12 vs 6 if I haven't seen many Aces (s17).
Quote: dwheatleyMight be doubling a 20 against an 8.
WINNER
Quote: sodawaterWINNER
BTW one time - back in the 80s - I was getting very tired at a casino and got a hard 20. I inadvertently signaled for another card and got an ace ......... After that I went straight to bed.
Quote: sodawaterWINNER
Yes! Figured it was doubling 20 but against 5 and 6 were taken. Then I remembered a random piece of trivia that your 20 has the best chance against an 8, not 5 or 6.
Quote: aceofspadesThrowing a slant play over the middle from the 1-yard line rather than running BEAST MODE to win the Super Bowl…oh wait…you said blackjack.
Damn it, came here just to say that :)
Quote: aceofspadesThrowing a slant play over the middle from the 1-yard line rather than running BEAST MODE to win the Super Bowl…oh wait…you said blackjack.
That's the idea!!!
Quote: thecesspitDamn it, came here just to say that :)
Great minds think alike lol scary
Quote: HowManyI saw a guy take "even money" after the dealer checked her hole card. She didn't have blackjack!
He insisted on taking even money anyway saying "It's the best bet in a casino."
Floor was called, and explained he will receive 3:2 payout. He said "No. I want even money."
If I had a gun, I would have shot him.
I saw a man take "even money" on a $500 Spanish 21 bet. He was obnoxious and insistent, and his request was granted.
Quote: DeucekiesI would have said Doubling For Less on a blackjack. Is doubling 20 v 8 still worse?
Yes, far worse
2) Hit until you break.
Can't get any worse than that.
Quote: HowMany1) Bet entire bankroll.
2) Hit until you break.
Can't get any worse than that.
Well..................
0. Take out 10K marker
1. Bet entire bankroll
2. Hit until you bust.
Quote: RaleighCrapsWell..................
0. Take out 10K marker
1. Bet entire bankroll
2. Hit until you bust.
Worse yet
Rob a bank
Bet entirety of illicit gains
Hit until bust
Resist arrest
Grab cop's gun
Shot by cop's partner
Waitress spills alcohol on your wound causing you to jump up
Cop sees you jump up and tasers you
Your heart stops
Paramedics revive you
You are found guilty
You are now someone's boyfriend in jail
You are never paroled and live to be 110
Quote: aceofspadesWorse yet
Rob a bank
Bet entirety of illicit gains
Hit until bust
Resist arrest
Grab cop's gun
Shot by cop's partner
Waitress spills alcohol on your wound causing you to jump up
Cop sees you jump up and tasers you
Your heart stops
Paramedics revive you
You are found guilty
You are now someone's boyfriend in jail
You are never paroled and live to be 110
Could be worse. You could also be a nickleback fan...
Quote: RomesCould be worse. You could also be a nickleback fan...
And have bet on the Seahawks
Quote: RomesCould be worse. You could also be a nickleback fan...
I laughed.
