So I get backed off....and I was losing my ass, wtf...
July 28th, 2014 at 11:48:06 AM
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I need some advice here, because this is really frustrating. I only started counting maybe a few weeks ago. I've been up and down, but I was playing at a smaller casino in Vegas that uses a two deck(edit: handheld game) , very good pen(70% I'd estimate, maybe 75% even), and has pretty generous rules.
I lost $600 one day playing rated in about 6 hours. Came back two days later, and played 11 hours and broke about even after being down $800 at one point.
Came back the next night, and despite losing about $200 in the game(I only bought in for $100 at a time, never a huge buyin), I got told after about 6 hours of play that the casino was backing me off from playing blackjack, but I was "more than welcome to play any other game in the casino." Yeah, thanks.
So I'm trying to pin down what is so obvious that I'm getting backed off while LOSING. I'm not betting big, only spreading $10-$50, I'm sociable and have a drink, and I use a betting spread based on the count, ramping up to a max bet of $50.
However, I was also taking perfect insurance, so maybe that's a big red flag? I was not using any cover in terms of insurance plays, if the count said take insurance, I took it, didnt matter if i had a BJ, 20, 13, 16, w/e, I made the bet when it was profitable. Which, of course, is almost always only when I had a large bet out.
So anyway, I'm kinda demoralized. I could use some advice, and specifically in regards to cover and how to spread myself thin enough. I guess I was being opimistic playing at the same casino 3 days in a row, but honestly, I was losing, so I figured that in itself would provide some cover. Guess I was wrong. I was also not betting much, but since it's a smaller casino, maybe they have nothing better to do but rate the play of anyone who looks like the might have an IQ over 50.
In summary, this sucks, wtf should I do if I want to keep playing. Also I hate 6 deck shoes, you have to spread really huge there and to get a game with decent rules usually the min bet is $25 or even $50. I can get decent rules with a two deck game at a $10 min bet, at least until I got banned yesterday :/
I lost $600 one day playing rated in about 6 hours. Came back two days later, and played 11 hours and broke about even after being down $800 at one point.
Came back the next night, and despite losing about $200 in the game(I only bought in for $100 at a time, never a huge buyin), I got told after about 6 hours of play that the casino was backing me off from playing blackjack, but I was "more than welcome to play any other game in the casino." Yeah, thanks.
So I'm trying to pin down what is so obvious that I'm getting backed off while LOSING. I'm not betting big, only spreading $10-$50, I'm sociable and have a drink, and I use a betting spread based on the count, ramping up to a max bet of $50.
However, I was also taking perfect insurance, so maybe that's a big red flag? I was not using any cover in terms of insurance plays, if the count said take insurance, I took it, didnt matter if i had a BJ, 20, 13, 16, w/e, I made the bet when it was profitable. Which, of course, is almost always only when I had a large bet out.
So anyway, I'm kinda demoralized. I could use some advice, and specifically in regards to cover and how to spread myself thin enough. I guess I was being opimistic playing at the same casino 3 days in a row, but honestly, I was losing, so I figured that in itself would provide some cover. Guess I was wrong. I was also not betting much, but since it's a smaller casino, maybe they have nothing better to do but rate the play of anyone who looks like the might have an IQ over 50.
In summary, this sucks, wtf should I do if I want to keep playing. Also I hate 6 deck shoes, you have to spread really huge there and to get a game with decent rules usually the min bet is $25 or even $50. I can get decent rules with a two deck game at a $10 min bet, at least until I got banned yesterday :/
July 28th, 2014 at 12:01:02 PM
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Come on, are you serious? You played for a total of 23 hours over a 4 day period, showing your spread and perfect insurance play time and time again.
On top of this, are you talking EC, downtown? (double deck dealt from a shoe). If so, you have to realize, they are notoriously sweaty. So sweaty they frequently back off winning players who aren't even counting.
On top of this, are you talking EC, downtown? (double deck dealt from a shoe). If so, you have to realize, they are notoriously sweaty. So sweaty they frequently back off winning players who aren't even counting.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:03:15 PM
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Some casinos just don't get it. At those stakes, I doubt you would be making more than the dealers if you played perfectly, and, since you are new, I doubt you are playing perfectly.
As for what tipped you off, I'm going to guess that your betting pattern is rigid and obvious.
You could always play the single deck at El Cortez until you get backed off there...
As for what tipped you off, I'm going to guess that your betting pattern is rigid and obvious.
You could always play the single deck at El Cortez until you get backed off there...
July 28th, 2014 at 12:04:36 PM
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Quote: kewljOn top of this, are you talking EC, downtown? (double deck dealt from a shoe). If so, you have to realize, they are notoriously sweaty. So sweaty they frequently back off winning players who aren't even counting.
I thought EC had $5 minimums.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:06:05 PM
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Well keep in mind I'm very new to this. I've been in casinos a long while and never attempted any kind of advantage play, so I'm not used to having such scrutiny and having to think about things like cover.
And I'm not talking downtown, but a station casino. Yes the minimum is $5, but I was betting $10. I'm going to consider this a learning experience, but I'm just trying to figure out which aspects of my play are the ones that let them identify me. Is it the long hours combined with the perfect insurance? Is it really spreading $10-$50 over a period of several hours?
Should I just get up and leave after a couple hours of play or less, regardless of my results, and continue to take insurance? Or should I be comfortable playing longer and just nix the insurance play from my playbook?
Or should I do both, play less time at one place, AND nix the insurance play?
And I'm not talking downtown, but a station casino. Yes the minimum is $5, but I was betting $10. I'm going to consider this a learning experience, but I'm just trying to figure out which aspects of my play are the ones that let them identify me. Is it the long hours combined with the perfect insurance? Is it really spreading $10-$50 over a period of several hours?
Should I just get up and leave after a couple hours of play or less, regardless of my results, and continue to take insurance? Or should I be comfortable playing longer and just nix the insurance play from my playbook?
Or should I do both, play less time at one place, AND nix the insurance play?
July 28th, 2014 at 12:08:03 PM
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And yes, I know I'm not making much. I'm definitely not perfect, but I'm getting there. Mostly I am just focusing on increasing speed. If I lose the count, I just bet $10 until the shuffle. But I have basic strategy and the index plays down cold and I rarely lose count.
Anyway, I know all about expectation, and I realize I'm making approx $10-$16 an hour depending on hands per hour basically. So yeah, chump change. I'm just trying to practice basically and play within my means.
Anyway, I know all about expectation, and I realize I'm making approx $10-$16 an hour depending on hands per hour basically. So yeah, chump change. I'm just trying to practice basically and play within my means.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:08:18 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI thought EC had $5 minimums.
Yeah they do. Was just a guess. Not too many DD games dealt from a shoe.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:09:21 PM
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Sorry, that's my mistake. It's a hand-held DD game.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:12:26 PM
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Quote: zhakranWell keep in mind I'm very new to this. I've been in casinos a long while and never attempted any kind of advantage play, so I'm not used to having such scrutiny and having to think about things like cover.
And I'm not talking downtown, but one a station casino. I'm going to consider this a learning experience, but I'm just trying to figure out which aspects of my play are the ones that let them identify me. Is it the long hours combined with the perfect insurance? Is it really spreading $10-$50 over a period of several hours?
Should I just get up and leave after a couple hours of play or less, regardless of my results, and continue to take insurance? Or should I be comfortable playing longer and just nix the insurance play from my playbook?
Or should I do both, play less time at one place, AND nix the insurance play?
Oh station casino. That may be even worse for you as, you would likely be backed off any other station property that you tried to play right now.
Yes, you have to play shorter sessions than that, especially DD were the count fluctuates much more meaning you show your spread more often.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:14:27 PM
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Don't nix insurance play. It's too valuable. Although, you could mix it up a bit. Always taking even money on naturals is relatively cheap. Insuring the occasional 20 (not all of them) at low counts with min bets out might throw them off a bit too.
When you say "perfect insurance", do you actually mean perfect insurance (you are keeping a separate insurance side-count) or do you mean that you are taking insurance at a TC of +3 or higher?
When you say "perfect insurance", do you actually mean perfect insurance (you are keeping a separate insurance side-count) or do you mean that you are taking insurance at a TC of +3 or higher?
July 28th, 2014 at 12:18:54 PM
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If they aren't watching closely, then this is probsbly what spooked them:
"...and broke about even after being down $800 at one point."
Doesn't matter that you broke even for the day. In their heads, you won $800.
"...and broke about even after being down $800 at one point."
Doesn't matter that you broke even for the day. In their heads, you won $800.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 28th, 2014 at 12:19:20 PM
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I should say "proper" insurance, as I'm not keeping an insurance side count. I'm taking it at TC +3 or higher, yeah, and never deviating from that.
That play is so profitable, but it seems so obvious. Who the fuck insurance a 16, but doesn't insure a 20 earlier. I dunno. It's hard for me to think of the right balance to make there that would still make the play profitable and not detectable.
That play is so profitable, but it seems so obvious. Who the fuck insurance a 16, but doesn't insure a 20 earlier. I dunno. It's hard for me to think of the right balance to make there that would still make the play profitable and not detectable.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:21:54 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearIf they aren't watching closely, then this is probsbly what spooked them:
"...and broke about even after being down $800 at one point."
Doesn't matter that you broke even for the day. In their heads, you won $800.
This is an excellent point. For longevity purposes, sometimes booking a decent loss goes a long way. Not saying you should try to lose, but if you find yourself down big, go ahead and quit for the day and 'book' that loss.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:28:52 PM
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Get rid of your 'tells' and change casinos.Quote: zhakranIn summary, this sucks, wtf should I do if I want to keep playing.
A "Sweat the Money" joint does not ask "are you winning"... they ask themselves "are you counting" ... winning is just one way for them to answer the question.
You are in a sweat the money casino.
You are playing the MOST WATCHED type of game there is there, because it is the most vulnerable.
You are displaying perfect behavior, even though you losing. You clearly know when to even take insurance.
You got counter written all over you.
So don't complain that they pegged you as a counter. Even if the fools didn't peg you as a losing counter.
Go a different casino, go to a higher level game, play black chip if you are able to. You don't have to act slick, just don't give away your status so obviously.
Don't do SouthPoint or Silverton. Don't do Cosmopolitan at low levels. Don't escalate bets steeply. Dont play hand held decks, unless you are in the high roller area.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:31:57 PM
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Quote: kewljThis is an excellent point. For longevity purposes, sometimes booking a decent loss goes a long way. Not saying you should try to lose, but if you find yourself down big, go ahead and quit for the day and 'book' that loss.
Yeah, this is something that I considered and should have acted on. That was my thought process when I quit -$600 earlier, but I guess I should have just got to a different casino the next day instead of the same one I booked the $600 loss.
So being that I was playing rated at the time, am I just pretty much effed now at all station casinos? I'm considering taking another crack at some of the places downtown which I haven't been to in a long while, but the station casinos have such nice juicy rules plus pen on their DD games it really sucks to be banned. Maybe I could try the other side of town and just play short sessions?
I'm unsure, but definitely frustrated with myself and the situation. As another poster pointed out, even though I was assuredly counting and playing with a small advantage, I was making at max like a few bucks an hour. It's almost ridiculous that they would put such scrutiny into someone playing this small, but then again I guess I was playing almost as big as anyone in the house. It's all relative :/
July 28th, 2014 at 12:35:21 PM
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Quote: zhakranI should say "proper" insurance, as I'm not keeping an insurance side count. I'm taking it at TC +3 or higher, yeah, and never deviating from that.
That play is so profitable, but it seems so obvious. Who the fuck insurance a 16, but doesn't insure a 20 earlier. I dunno. It's hard for me to think of the right balance to make there that would still make the play profitable and not detectable.
When you are trying to add cover plays, remember that:
1. What you do at small bets doesn't matter that much, so you can mix it up a bit there. Don't go totally crazy but it's ok to deviate occasionally.
2. What you do when the count is close to the index really doesn't matter, so you can REALLY mix it up there.
3. What you do with big bets out DOES matter, so try to play perfectly then.
Have you read Ian Andersen's book (Burning the Tables?). It's one of the better books I've read. He talks about these concepts a lot. He also introduces an idea of making plays that are incorrect from a basic strategy point of view, but are correct with high counts and have indexes very close to 0. This makes them correct in aggregate when varying your bets with the count (because you are making mistakes with small bets but correct plays with large ones). This leads to strategies like ALWAYS standing on 16 v 10, ALWAYS doubling 9 v 2, ALWAYS doubling 11 v A (all of these have indices of 0 or +1 and are correct at higher counts)
You can also deviate on plays that don't come up too often. For example, always taking even money on naturals is not that expensive because:
1. It rarely comes up
2. It is more likely to come up when the count is high (ie, when it's correct)
3. It's correct for your big bets anyway.
I'm not saying that you should do all of these things, but it's something to think about when trying to come up with something that works for you.
I should also point out that, at your betting levels, you need very, very little cover at most casinos. Don't get too paranoid and overdoing it. Your edge is small -- don't give it all back!
July 28th, 2014 at 12:39:41 PM
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24 hours of play, spread 1-5, Min bet $10 at $5 table, Takes insurance on big bets.
Do we need his action boss ? Plus the asshole never tips....
Do we need his action boss ? Plus the asshole never tips....
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 12:41:26 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffGet rid of your 'tells' and change casinos.
Go a different casino, go to a higher level game, play black chip if you are able to. You don't have to act slick, just don't give away your status so obviously.
I understand what you're saying, but I kind of don't understand....
You say to bet bigger and play in the upper section games, but aren't those even more highly scrutinized?
When you suggest not giving my status and getting rid of my tells, is that taking insurance at +3 or higher, or are you suggesting making my appearance look more like a bum? Is playing a long time and constantly altering my bet spread from 1 unit to 5 the tell you're talking about?
Also, I was playing with a card previously. Is that just out of the question from now on? I honestly don't give a F*&% about comps, but it was my opinion that playing without a card was in and of itself kind of a red flag to the pit.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:41:34 PM
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Quote: zhakranMaybe I could try the other side of town and just play short sessions?
Don't do this right now. You have likely been flyered to all the station properties. Seems crazy at those stakes, but if they were sweaty enough to back you off they probably flyered you and your picture is hanging in the pits of all properties for a couple days. Take a break from stations and when you do return in a while, pick a different casino, play short sessions unrated (your card is toast) and see how it goes. (I would stay away from palace station for your return visit as they are notoriously sweaty).
July 28th, 2014 at 12:42:17 PM
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Quote: Buzzard24 hours of play, spread 1-5, Min bet $10 at $5 table, Takes insurance on big bets.
Do we need his action boss ? Plus the asshole never tips....
I did tip actually, not a lot, just a buck occasionally at the start of a shoe, but still 100% more than most of the other patrons. I'm aware that not tipping is a big tell, so I tried to do it occasionally.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:43:49 PM
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24 hours Spread $10-$50. Down $800. Were you using a Speed Count ? How many hands per hour did you think you averaged ?
Variance or not so good at counting ?
Variance or not so good at counting ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 12:51:57 PM
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I had estimated 80 hands an hour, and variance will do what it will. When you get a lot of positive counts and make a lot of max bets, and get a lot of splitting and double down opportunities on your big bets and lose virtually all of them, $800 can go by pretty quickly. You don't win and lose at a steady, predictable rate when gambling. You tend to have good sessions and bad, and if you're playing with an overall edge, then you have slightly more winning sessions than losing ones.
I'm not sure why you think that's some absurd swing, but it's really not. And no, i'm not using a speed count, nor do I really know what that is.
I'm not sure why you think that's some absurd swing, but it's really not. And no, i'm not using a speed count, nor do I really know what that is.
July 28th, 2014 at 12:56:40 PM
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I asked your opinion on variance, that's all. Not absurd at all, but almost 2,000 hands and never in the positive does raise flags.
I assume tips were rare or non-existent. They have to be if you EVER expect to show a profit .
I assume tips were rare or non-existent. They have to be if you EVER expect to show a profit .
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 12:59:08 PM
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Quote: Buzzard24 hours Spread $10-$50. Down $800. Were you using a Speed Count ? How many hands per hour did you think you averaged ?
Variance or not so good at counting ?
Down 16 max bets in 24 hrs of play is no big deal. It's nowhere near enough data to draw any conclusions.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:02:24 PM
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Quote: BuzzardI asked your opinion on variance, that's all. Not absurd at all, but almost 2,000 hands and never in the positive does raise flags.
I assume tips were rare or non-existent. They have to be if you EVER expect to show a profit .
I mean, I was winning for periods of time while playing before I started losing. I don't think that really matters though, I'm guessing I wouldn't have been backed off if I was effing up that badly. I don't really make any mistakes, and on the rare occasion I do, I just min bet for a few hands and play basic strategy til the shuffle. Which happened probably three or four times in the past 24 hours of play. Usually when I was distracted by getting my drink or talking to other players and just happened to miss the cards as they were being scooped up.
It's not like counting is particularly challenging, I've found the hard part, apparently, is doing so without detection.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:04:28 PM
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I only asked cause he's a rookie. How many newbies have you seen that THINK they are playing an A game, but are not. In BJ, poker,
vulture slots, etc ? ? ?
vulture slots, etc ? ? ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 1:06:49 PM
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Quote: zhakranIt's not like counting is particularly challenging, I've found the hard part, apparently, is doing so without detection.
That is correct. Lesson learned. :)
If you play certain casinos on a regular basis, you have to identify their tolerance and comfort levels. This refers to a number of things. Betting levels, total wins, and even time played. There aren't many places that you can just camp out for hours on end and count and spread, even at low limits. But you can get away with it for short periods.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:09:10 PM
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24 hours in a few days and no tips. If I was the dealer, I would tell the boss you are a counter and I overheard you telling another player how dumb the boss was !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 1:15:04 PM
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Here is a little unsolicited advice, zhakran. Reconsider those 6 deck games that you don't like playing. Many places are much more tolerant of the 6 deck games. Even some stores that are very protective of their double deck game, which btw is very common in Vegas, are much more tolerant of their 6 deck game right at the next table. I am not saying don't play any DD, just saying play a mix of the two, with shorter sessions on your DD play.
But really, the kind of 'camping out' for hours at a time that you did, is going to get you busted at most places. The advantage of Vegas is quantity vs quality. There are thousands of BJ games. Move around. Don't camp out.
But really, the kind of 'camping out' for hours at a time that you did, is going to get you busted at most places. The advantage of Vegas is quantity vs quality. There are thousands of BJ games. Move around. Don't camp out.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:22:22 PM
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Quote: BuzzardI only asked cause he's a rookie. How many newbies have you seen that THINK they are playing an A game, but are not. In BJ, poker,
vulture slots, etc ? ? ?
That is reasonable, but, the results themselves are meaningless at this point, and, at least, from his posts, he has yet to say anything that would indicate that he doesn't know what he is doing.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:23:12 PM
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Quote: Buzzard24 hours in a few days and no tips. If I was the dealer, I would tell the boss you are a counter and I overheard you telling another player how dumb the boss was !
He actually said that he was the only one tipping at all...
July 28th, 2014 at 1:39:37 PM
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How often can you tip and expect to win at those levels ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 1:40:32 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat is reasonable, but, the results themselves are meaningless at this point, and, at least, from his posts, he has yet to say anything that would indicate that he doesn't know what he is doing.
11 + hours session ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 1:52:25 PM
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>I understand what you're saying, but I kind of don't understand....
Sounds about right for any of my drunken rambling pronoucements about things of which I am totally ignorant.
>You say to bet bigger
NO. I suggested that you bet bigger if able.
> and play in the upper section games, but aren't those even more highly scrutinized?
Once again, the answer is usually NO. Games in the high rollers area have better rules and more experienced dealers and usually a bit more tolerance.
>When you suggest not giving my status and getting rid of my tells,
I mean take that sign off your jacket that reads "card counter".
> is that taking insurance at +3 or higher,
Yeah, I would say that is a "tell".
> or are you suggesting making my appearance look more like a bum?
Not at all. Just don't be so obvious.
> Is playing a long time
I'd take "normal" breaks and appear to be normal. If you stand out as having saddle sores, its not the saddle sores that is wrong per se, its the standing out from the crowd.
>and constantly altering my bet spread from 1 unit to 5 the tell you're talking about?
Yeah, that is more like it. If you want to go from 1 to 5, you go from 1 to 3, then back to 1, then to 3, then to 5. Its better to appear whimsical than predictable. If you jump from 1 to 5 ... you stand out as a counter or possible counter and now perhaps someone in surveillance is calculating the count along with you and seeing what you do.
>Also, I was playing with a card previously.
Some bold counters still play without a card, but I think its pretty much required now to have a card and to use it. You play with a card or you get watched but good. I think you were promptly backed off because of what you did you did so blatantly. Is your card on one of those plastic chains that clip to your shirt as if you were a slot machine player? It should be. That is part of your "cover". Know a few of the slot machines and chat about them from time to time. Let a "good" insurance opportunity pass by and take your lumps as they may be. Its a good cover to not aim for perfection. Most people take breaks if they are losing big... so that is what you should be doing. Otherwise you stand out but your losses do not.
Sounds about right for any of my drunken rambling pronoucements about things of which I am totally ignorant.
>You say to bet bigger
NO. I suggested that you bet bigger if able.
> and play in the upper section games, but aren't those even more highly scrutinized?
Once again, the answer is usually NO. Games in the high rollers area have better rules and more experienced dealers and usually a bit more tolerance.
>When you suggest not giving my status and getting rid of my tells,
I mean take that sign off your jacket that reads "card counter".
> is that taking insurance at +3 or higher,
Yeah, I would say that is a "tell".
> or are you suggesting making my appearance look more like a bum?
Not at all. Just don't be so obvious.
> Is playing a long time
I'd take "normal" breaks and appear to be normal. If you stand out as having saddle sores, its not the saddle sores that is wrong per se, its the standing out from the crowd.
>and constantly altering my bet spread from 1 unit to 5 the tell you're talking about?
Yeah, that is more like it. If you want to go from 1 to 5, you go from 1 to 3, then back to 1, then to 3, then to 5. Its better to appear whimsical than predictable. If you jump from 1 to 5 ... you stand out as a counter or possible counter and now perhaps someone in surveillance is calculating the count along with you and seeing what you do.
>Also, I was playing with a card previously.
Some bold counters still play without a card, but I think its pretty much required now to have a card and to use it. You play with a card or you get watched but good. I think you were promptly backed off because of what you did you did so blatantly. Is your card on one of those plastic chains that clip to your shirt as if you were a slot machine player? It should be. That is part of your "cover". Know a few of the slot machines and chat about them from time to time. Let a "good" insurance opportunity pass by and take your lumps as they may be. Its a good cover to not aim for perfection. Most people take breaks if they are losing big... so that is what you should be doing. Otherwise you stand out but your losses do not.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:54:07 PM
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Quote: BuzzardHow often can you tip and expect to win at those levels ?
He is not down $800 because he tipped off $10 in white chips over 24 hours.
If he plays perfectly he can probably win $10-$20 per hour at those stakes, assuming average conditions (a couple of other players at the table). So his expectation is in the $250 - $500 range or lower. His standard deviation is probably somewhere in the low thousands of dollars. Even if he is playing perfectly, I doubt he is even one standard deviation below expectation.
July 28th, 2014 at 1:59:37 PM
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Did he tip $10 or $100 ? Just curious.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 2:01:49 PM
permalink
Quote: Buzzard11 + hours session ?
Yeah I wouldn't do that either. Sonovabish (who doesn't post here any more, it seems) claimed that he did the same thing though (8+ hour sessions) and he knew what he was doing. So, some people certainly do that.
You know, I've actually never been backed off, anywhere. I should head to the El Cortez and play their single deck game just so I can say I've been backed off once, but then I'd have to learn single deck strategy.
July 28th, 2014 at 2:06:34 PM
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Weirdest backoff I ever saw was at Lilly Belle's in 1990's. They were paying Resorts to manage it for them in Blackhawk. Player was doubling hard 12's, splitting 10's, even against an Ace and extremely lucky. So they told him no more Bj for him.
Oh, did i mention Minimum bet was $5, so was max $5. LOL
Lilly Belles closed after a few months, still closed 20 years later.
Oh, did i mention Minimum bet was $5, so was max $5. LOL
Lilly Belles closed after a few months, still closed 20 years later.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 28th, 2014 at 2:10:42 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHe is not down $800 because he tipped off $10 in white chips over 24 hours.
If he plays perfectly he can probably win $10-$20 per hour at those stakes, assuming average conditions (a couple of other players at the table). So his expectation is in the $250 - $500 range or lower. His standard deviation is probably somewhere in the low thousands of dollars. Even if he is playing perfectly, I doubt he is even one standard deviation below expectation.
It was probably something like $15 in white chips all told over the 3 days of play. I don't think anyone in a casino has ever accused me of over tipping.
And yeah, obviously that's not breaking the bank and I *thought* was a decent way to provide a modicum of cover.
Although I'm new to card counting, I've made close to 100% of my income for 5 years now playing poker, and have thousands of hours of records indicating my average win rate, so even though I'm apparently effing awful at the cover aspects of card counting, I'm pretty confident I know what I'm doing from the betting standpoint.
It was just kind of a whim honestly, a friend of mine from back home came to visit for a few days about two months ago, and wanted to do some gambling at the tables. We talked about blackjack(I knew basic strategy, but not much else, never really been much of a gambler, STRICTLY poker) and he thought card counting sounded awesome but didn't know anything about it. We played a few hours, won a little money, and had a good time. I started to think more about learning card counting, read about it, and became kind of fascinated with it. I thought it would be a nice diversion from grinding $2-$5 NL 30 hours a week.
I've been playing off an on, no more than 10 hours a week honestly until just the past few days. Had a couple of +1,000 wins, a couple minus $500 days, a couple break evenish sessions, but I was making sure not to play at a casino for too long at a time, and definitely not several days in a row.
This past week was the only time ever I decided to play more than a few hours at one place(this casino is close to home, it was just so convenient and the rules were great. Why not give it a shot?!), and the first time I came back so soon.
The fact that I was basically busted right away after playing 3 out of 4 days in one place was pretty frustrating and humbling.
I really appreciate all the advice, and honestly I'm probably not going to play at all for a week or so, but I'm going to try some 6-deck games like kewlj suggested and most definitely only play a couple hours max at a time, win or lose.
One last thing, specifically for kewlj, since I know you kind of do a similar thing and make a circuit of a lot of vegas casinos: Play with a card, or without one? I honestly don't give a f*&$ about any repercussions except as they relate to me being detected. Am I better off with one or without.
July 28th, 2014 at 2:11:03 PM
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Quote: BuzzardWeirdest backoff I ever saw was at Lilly Belle's in 1990's. They were paying Resorts to manage it for them in Blackhawk. Player was doubling hard 12's, splitting 10's, even against an Ace and extremely lucky. So they told him no more Bj for him.
Unreal.
"How dare you make those -EV plays that benefit us incredibly? We better kick you out with our money before you have a chance to give it back tenfold."
Quote:Lilly Belles closed after a few months, still closed 20 years later.
What? They didn't survive? What a surprise.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland.
And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with.
- AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
July 28th, 2014 at 2:17:25 PM
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Quote: zhakranIt was probably something like $15 in white chips all told over the 3 days of play. I don't think anyone in a casino has ever accused me of over tipping.
And yeah, obviously that's not breaking the bank and I *thought* was a decent way to provide a modicum of cover.
Although I'm new to card counting, I've made close to 100% of my income for 5 years now playing poker, and have thousands of hours of records indicating my average win rate, so even though I'm apparently fucking awful at the cover aspects of card counting, I'm pretty confident I know what I'm doing from the betting standpoint.
It was just kind of a whim honestly, a friend of mine from back home came to visit for a few days about two months ago, and wanted to do some gambling at the tables. We talked about blackjack(I knew basic strategy, but not much else, never really been much of a gambler, STRICTLY poker) and he thought card counting sounded awesome but didn't know anything about it. We played a few hours, won a little money, and had a good time. I started to think more about learning card counting, read about it, and became kind of fascinated with it. I thought it would be a nice diversion from grinding $2-$5 NL 30 hours a week.
I've been playing off an on, no more than 10 hours a week honestly until just the past few days. Had a couple of +1,000 wins, a couple minus $500 days, a couple break evenish sessions, but I was making sure not to play at a casino for too long at a time, and definitely not several days in a row.
This past week was the only time ever I decided to play more than a few hours at one place(this casino is close to home, it was just so convenient and the rules were great. Why not give it a shot?!), and the first time I came back so soon.
The fact that I was basically busted right away after playing 3 out of 4 days in one place was pretty frustrating and humbling.
I really appreciate all the advice, and honestly I'm probably not going to play at all for a week or so, but I'm going to try some 6-deck games like kewlj suggested and most definitely only play a couple hours max at a time, win or lose.
One last thing, specifically for kewlj, since I know you kind of do a similar thing and make a circuit of a lot of vegas casinos: Play with a card, or without one? I honestly don't give a fuck about any repercussions except as they relate to me being detected. Am I better off with one or without.
Since you have good records, what's your hourly win rate for $2-$5 NL? If you are a good poker player, I doubt that you can make more at blackjack betting $50 max.
Now, if you have the bankroll to play at the black-chip games, maybe...
As for the card, I play with one.
July 28th, 2014 at 2:27:36 PM
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Well honestly I've only lived in Vegas for about 9 months, and the poker scene isn't great. At all. I moved here for my wife's work actually, and I figured poker would be fine.
I make almost exactly $20/hour since I've been here, but in LA I made $35/hour at the exact same stakes, over a couple years. And I can tell just from my wealth of experience, in gauging player's skill levels, the average table here is way worse than LA. I virtually never passed on a game in LA at those stakes, but I find in Vegas, some days I just turn around walk out of the poker room without even sitting down, because I know the game is shit just from looking at it.
Even with these less than ideal conditions, I still agree 100% that poker is more profitable than BJ since I most certainly don't have the bankroll to be spreading $100-$1500 or anything like that. I don't that I would feel comfortable with a max bet of more than $250.
As I understand it, in order to make 6-deck games profitable you need to honestly spread about 1-12, which would entail a max bet of $1200 or maybe $600 at a $50 table. For my bankroll that's too much, and honestly blackjack is just a diversion and something I was interested to learn. Poker is definitely still where my bread is buttered, so to speak. The game would have to get a lot worse still to even consider "switching". I do miss LA donks though :(
I make almost exactly $20/hour since I've been here, but in LA I made $35/hour at the exact same stakes, over a couple years. And I can tell just from my wealth of experience, in gauging player's skill levels, the average table here is way worse than LA. I virtually never passed on a game in LA at those stakes, but I find in Vegas, some days I just turn around walk out of the poker room without even sitting down, because I know the game is shit just from looking at it.
Even with these less than ideal conditions, I still agree 100% that poker is more profitable than BJ since I most certainly don't have the bankroll to be spreading $100-$1500 or anything like that. I don't that I would feel comfortable with a max bet of more than $250.
As I understand it, in order to make 6-deck games profitable you need to honestly spread about 1-12, which would entail a max bet of $1200 or maybe $600 at a $50 table. For my bankroll that's too much, and honestly blackjack is just a diversion and something I was interested to learn. Poker is definitely still where my bread is buttered, so to speak. The game would have to get a lot worse still to even consider "switching". I do miss LA donks though :(
July 28th, 2014 at 3:32:57 PM
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You can find decent shoe games at $10-$15 minimums, and if you're max betting under $200 you can Wong tables without trouble, so lo g as you don't camp out.....that's your big adjustment to make from poker is to not ever make yourself too comfortable at a table, move a lot. I usually max bet 100-150 range, and feel like mostly double deck short sessions with table hopping shoe games on swing shift mixed in gets the most money at those stakes.
July 28th, 2014 at 3:48:24 PM
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Thanks mcallister, I will give this a try, but if you don't mine me asking, and maybe PM to me if you don't want it out there in public, what games are there in Vegas that have $10 or even $15 min for 6 deck shoes, and also decent rules?
A lot of strip properties offer 6D, S17, surr, DAS, RSA, which is great! Around a .28% house edge I believe, which is what I'd want if I'm playing 6 deck and putting up with so many negative counts to begin with.
But usually these games are $25 min or usually actually $50 min. Is it the times when you're going? Anyway, I'd really appreciate a PM on that matter if you would be so kind, because finding a decent 6 deck game has been hard at my betting levels, but there are an abundance of 2-deck games, it just seems that I've done not so well with the detection thing while playing them.
A lot of strip properties offer 6D, S17, surr, DAS, RSA, which is great! Around a .28% house edge I believe, which is what I'd want if I'm playing 6 deck and putting up with so many negative counts to begin with.
But usually these games are $25 min or usually actually $50 min. Is it the times when you're going? Anyway, I'd really appreciate a PM on that matter if you would be so kind, because finding a decent 6 deck game has been hard at my betting levels, but there are an abundance of 2-deck games, it just seems that I've done not so well with the detection thing while playing them.
July 28th, 2014 at 4:31:12 PM
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Well if you want to make shoe games sufficiently profitable you will not be playing through significantly negative counts. You can fine tune it beyond this, but the rule of thumb for two common, profitable strategies for shoe games is either to start a new shoe and find a new table if the TC drops below the -1 or so range, or to watch a freshly started shoe from beyond the table, while pretending to watch a roulette or craps table etc. between rounds, and jump in and play when the TC is in the +1.5 to +2 range.
When adopting that playing style, you will learn that the rules are just not all that important as long as BJ pays 3:2 and the penetration is playable to good.
Rules matter but not all that much compared to pen. and your spread, sometimes you can get away with a bigger spread with a more marginal rule set.
When adopting that playing style, you will learn that the rules are just not all that important as long as BJ pays 3:2 and the penetration is playable to good.
Rules matter but not all that much compared to pen. and your spread, sometimes you can get away with a bigger spread with a more marginal rule set.
July 29th, 2014 at 1:59:19 PM
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Casinos love backing you off when you're down. Properly spotting a counter is easy, and doesn't depend on whether said counter is winning or losing. My only back-off in Vegas came while I was down about a grand. Jerks.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
July 29th, 2014 at 2:35:35 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsMy only back-off in Vegas came while I was down about a grand.
Sounds like the house is an AP, too, and wanted to quit while they were ahead.
May the cards fall in your favor.
July 29th, 2014 at 2:56:31 PM
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Quote: DieterSounds like the house is an AP, too, and wanted to quit while they were ahead.
I also got that feeling, especially since I was just starting to make a little run and had won about 6 of the last 7 hands or so when I got approached.
Anyway, I'm going to give 6 deck shoes a shot this weekend sometime probably, just playing poker for now and trying to digest all that I've learned. I really enjoy the option of having another advantage play at a casino that I can make use of when I'm out gambling, and I really want to be able to play without detection. I also told people when they asked that I worked in computers(I have that kind of look) and in retrospect that's a huge no-no I would imagine. I think in the future I'm just gonna keep my mouth shut and get out after I've revealed my spread basically.
July 29th, 2014 at 3:17:25 PM
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Quote: Buzzard24 hours in a few days and no tips. If I was the dealer, I would tell the boss you are a counter and I overheard you telling another player how dumb the boss was !
Reading comp issues?
A quick skim will reveal his tipping habits.
