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Salthouse
Salthouse
Joined: Jul 30, 2017
  • Threads: 1
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July 30th, 2017 at 6:22:08 AM permalink
$40k? I would bet a unit of $100

Betting would be TC -1 *100. I would bet this amount as far up the scale as you can get away with. ( eg True Count of 7 bet $600)

Minimum should be the lowest possible bet. Zero is the lowest bet one can (not) make. ALWAYS walk at a true minus 0.5 (-0.5) or worse.

Do not deviate from what you know for cover purposes. This is just costing you money needlessly.

Never ever play the next shoe after betting big on the previous one. If you are young you will get heat so look like you can afford to bet the money you intend to.

I have made the assumption you know the game in a real live casino played lots of hours are able to play with

distractions constantly and have learned the indices from perhaps -1 through to +6.

Your risk of ruin will be less than 2% playing this way.

Lastly be prepared to get barred. It happens to the best and worst of us.

( If you are smart about how you go about it you will do ok.)
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 1818
July 30th, 2017 at 7:18:55 AM permalink
To StabWorld.
Sincerest thanks for the update and sorry to hear about the bankruptsy. Newbies should learn from your excellent experience and maybe they would be wise enough to not be cocky. You had annual swings of the order of 12K and were unlucky enough to have had an up year to start off. Like most of us,. you soon discovered that variance is a two way street and massive. For you guys in the USA, I understand that doing your taxes properly would be enough on its own to stop you in your tracks.

To Salthouse: Don't underestimate Stabworld's knowledge or experience. He really has lived the dream and was very skilled at it when he ventured forth. Telling Stabworld how to play is telling your granny how to suck eggs. I've PM'd you on another matter. Maybe when you reply to that, you will update me on your real world gambling experience.

To Zenking, if you are reading: You'd be very wise to get to know Stabworld's story. He was the 'New kid on the block of 3 years ago' He never blamed Chinese cards or crooked games.
Embrace the Variance
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 495
July 30th, 2017 at 8:30:04 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

To StabWorld.
Sincerest thanks for the update and sorry to hear about the bankruptsy. Newbies should learn from your excellent experience and maybe they would be wise enough to not be cocky. You had annual swings of the order of 12K and were unlucky enough to have had an up year to start off. Like most of us,. you soon discovered that variance is a two way street and massive. For you guys in the USA, I understand that doing your taxes properly would be enough on its own to stop you in your tracks.

To Salthouse: Don't underestimate Stabworld's knowledge or experience. He really has lived the dream and was very skilled at it when he ventured forth. Telling Stabworld how to play is telling your granny how to suck eggs. I've PM'd you on another matter. Maybe when you reply to that, you will update me on your real world gambling experience.

To Zenking, if you are reading: You'd be very wise to get to know Stabworld's story. He was the 'New kid on the block of 3 years ago' He never blamed Chinese cards or crooked games.



He never blamed chinese cards or crooked games, but he also never made 41k profit. Interesting observation. He also got barred all over the east coast and only made 5k profit? How does that happen? He also admitted he played intoxicated, did you forget that? I think ill listen to my own advice and my own story. Ive only been trespassed once and i think its because i ripped them off on a mispay blackjack at a max bet and got paid twice LOL. Now that i think about it, i think me acting crazy at the tables has provided good cover and longevity. They must think im a degenerate.
Wong Halves Full Indices ------------ LoneWoLF
Ace
Ace
Joined: Aug 15, 2013
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 27
July 30th, 2017 at 11:01:47 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld


My first year - i made 12k roughly
2nd year - I lost 10k roughly
3rd year - I made 11k roughly
This year - I am down 8k

- during these 3 years - I have been backed off, amd restricted from playing blackjack on just about every casino here on the East coast - with a few in vegas- 86' d from an indian casino - as well as 1 in vegas - i been backroomed - assualted - illegally detained - illegal search and seizure - and illegal dissemination of personal information against my consent - by tribal police

These are interesting reports and I enjoy reading them. They reinforce my opinion of card counting the current USA environment - it's just not worth it. Maybe there are better opportunities abroad with less heat and more penetration.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak 
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1021
July 30th, 2017 at 11:20:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ace

These are interesting reports and I enjoy reading them. They reinforce my opinion of card counting the current USA environment - it's just not worth it. Maybe there are better opportunities abroad with less heat and more penetration.


A few math guys/writers, like Eliot Jacobson, have said for a while that counting is no longer a viable advantage play. And while I agree there's plays out there with a much higher edge, I don't see what switch flipped to back up the claim that counting is no longer profitable. There's more casinos in the US today than ever before, and 3-2 with decent penetration still exists.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 4129
Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
August 1st, 2017 at 9:10:57 AM permalink
Counting is absolutely profitable. What most the book authors don't want you to know is it is in fact NOT an easy thing to do... +1's and -1's, sure, that's simple... but marrying all of the concepts needed together to have a winning game takes a greater grasp and understanding of the game and mathematics behind it. What the authors want to do is give the summation of these points, which in turn makes it sound like 'anyone can count' (which also helps sell their books) when in reality, no, not anyone can. You can be perfect at your +1's and -1's, but if you don't understand Kelly betting, RoR, etc, you're going to lose. If you don't understand variance and the natural swings of the game, you're going to accuse places of cheating you when it's really just your lack of understanding of the game and statistics. Hell, even I was there earlier in my career. I'd swear a place just cheated me because there's NO WAY you can lose that many hours in a row at the same place! Then after doing a deeper dive analysis not only did I find it was completely in the realm of possibility, but I did not IGNORE those facts but learned from them to get a better understanding of the sick variance that can come with playing blackjack.

The edge is low, the variance is high, and many many people will try...
To count the cards and make the bets, heck maybe even try to take on the side "bet the set",
But in the end, to no avail, many will falter, fumble, and fail...
Ignoring statistics, variance, betting, and RoR,
It's really no wonder, most don't get too far.
But the capital crime, the cream, the cheese,
Is ignoring good advice, from experienced members and pros such as these.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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