Blackjack, Flat Bet Edge and Bet Spread Edge Questions

I have recently began my journey on learning basic strategy and AP and I have two questions (Rules I will probably be playing are 6D, $15-$20min, hit on 17, DAS, which give house edge of 0.55% according to this site, and the high limit table, which maybe i can get into after I build up a bigger bankroll, has house edge of 0.35%).

With regards to flat betting, If I flat bet, and get a maximum and minimum thresholds lets says the min is 80% of bankroll and max is 20% above bankroll (i'm sure a series of equations would make these number variable). Can I go positive? Can I ever have an edge? I started wondering when I saw this flat bet distribution table saying that within 1std dev I can be +8.2 or -8.84 units after 1 hour of play. Please let me know if I incorporate a threshold if I can get the advantage?

The Wizard answered a question like this regarding baccarat on his FAQ so I'm hoping it can be answer for Blackjack.

The second question is if anyone can direct me to guide on how my bet spread would change my advantage. I read that a 2 unit bet spread would give me a 0.35% edge, and am interested in more information on how the spread varies the edge. Like most of you, I'm not interested in getting backed-off or barred, so I was trying to lay low.

Thanks for all your help. This site is awesome, and hopefully my first post will get answered. Let me know If you need further clarification.

Quote: Hawk76

I have recently began my journey on learning basic strategy and AP and I have two questions (Rules I will probably be playing are 6D, $15-$20min, hit on 17, DAS, which give house edge of 0.55% according to this site, and the high limit table, which maybe i can get into after I build up a bigger bankroll, has house edge of 0.35%).

With regards to flat betting, If I flat bet, and get a maximum and minimum thresholds lets says the min is 80% of bankroll and max is 20% above bankroll (i'm sure a series of equations would make these number variable). Can I go positive? Can I ever have an edge? I started wondering when I saw this flat bet distribution table (http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Blackjack_Basic_Strategy_Betting_And_Risk.htm) saying that within 1std dev I can be +8.2 or -8.84 units after 1 hour of play. Please let me know if I incorporate a threshold if I can get the advantage?

The Wizard answered a question like this regarding baccarat on his FAQ (https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/betting-systems/) so I'm hoping it can be answer for Blackjack.

The second question is if anyone can direct me to guide on how my bet spread would change my advantage. I read that a 2 unit bet spread would give me a 0.35% edge, and am interested in more information on how the spread varies the edge. Like most of you, I'm not interested in getting backed-off or barred, so I was trying to lay low.

Thanks for all your help. This site is awesome, and hopefully my first post will get answered. Let me know If you need further clarification.

Maybe I'm not reading this correctly, but if the table minimum is 80% of your bankroll you won't be playing very long. And a 2 unit spread is very unlikely to get you noticed.

I would suggest for practice purposes you play at a $5 table, you'll last a lot longer.

Quote: MonkeyMonkey

Maybe I'm not reading this correctly, but if the table minimum is 80% of your bankroll you won't be playing very long. And a 2 unit spread is very unlikely to get you noticed.

I would suggest for practice purposes you play at a $5 table, you'll last a lot longer.

Ah, what I meant was that I stopped playing once I hit 80% of my bankroll. So, for example, if I bring $1000 with me, I leave the table if I hit $800 or $1200.

Quote: Hawk76

I have recently began my journey on learning basic strategy and AP and I have two questions (Rules I will probably be playing are 6D, $15-$20min, hit on s17, DAS, which give house edge of 0.55% according to this site, and the high limit table, which maybe i can get into after I build up a bigger bankroll, has house edge of 0.35%).

With regards to flat betting, If I flat bet, and get a maximum and minimum thresholds lets says the min is 80% of bankroll and max is 20% above bankroll (i'm sure a series of equations would make these number variable). Can I go positive? Can I ever have an edge? I started wondering when I saw this flat bet distribution table (http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Blackjack_Basic_Strategy_Betting_And_Risk.htm) saying that within 1std dev I can be +8.2 or -8.84 units after 1 hour of play. Please let me know if I incorporate a threshold if I can get the advantage?

The Wizard answered a question like this regarding baccarat on his FAQ (https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/betting-systems/) so I'm hoping it can be answer for Blackjack.

No, you're trying to get an advantage by "quitting while you're ahead." It's not possible long-term on a -EV game. You will have winning sessions and losing sessions but some of your sessions, you will go negative and never recover, so "quitting while you're ahead" is not a valid strategy for winning in the long run.

Quote:

The second question is if anyone can direct me to guide on how my bet spread would change my advantage. I read that a 2 unit bet spread would give me a 0.35% edge, and am interested in more information on how the spread varies the edge. Like most of you, I'm not interested in getting backed-off or barred, so I was trying to lay low.

Thanks for all your help. This site is awesome, and hopefully my first post will get answered. Let me know If you need further clarification.

EDIT: I have reposted this to the Blackjack section, Mod please feel free to remove from General Discussion

It will depend on the rules, penetration, and the count you are using, so it's hard to answer. I'm surprised that a 2-unit spread gets above break-even, but it's possible. With most rules/systems a 1-4 spread will get you above breakeven and into +EV territory, but it takes much longer to get into the "long run" with such a spread. But it's very unlikely you'll be backed off or even noticed, depending on the casino (unless you're playing single deck).

The best way to answer these kinds of questions is with software - CVCX and CVData are good; there are other packages I haven't tried.

Quote: AcesAndEights

No, you're trying to get an advantage by "quitting while you're ahead." It's not possible long-term on a -EV game. You will have winning sessions and losing sessions but some of your sessions, you will go negative and never recover, so "quitting while you're ahead" is not a valid strategy for winning in the long run.

Once you admit that its a negative advantage game thats it! No one has a Midas Touch to walk up and make his first few hands all winners and only then start to run the risks that everybody else runs each and every hand.

Note: as to the practice at 5.00 dollars ... be careful, most five dollar tables are 6:5 and you don't want that ........ for practice or for real.

Switching from Green to Black will get you noticed, but otherwise you won't be all that visible.

Quote: Hawk76

Ah, what I meant was that I stopped playing once I hit 80% of my bankroll. So, for example, if I bring $1000 with me, I leave the table if I hit $800 or $1200.

So you mean to say you will have a "stop lost" at $200 down and walk away with a win of $400? This may be a small examplary figure to your BR but assuming BJ sessions, you may most likely make a little or win a little in the long run. Win some sessions and lose some other sessions. The end effect is not likely a continious win-win-win and bottom line not impressive.

Flat betting does not yield high wins but stacking up the chips when you're hot will probably give you a better run for your money. Cutting loss at 30-40% from your total BR and keep pushing your luck to the limit with good runs. Walk away when it starts to get cool, losing a few back. Discipline yourself better and you'll end you with a healthier bank account.

Good luck !!!