Favorable count: one big bet or multiple bets?

Let's say you've got a very favorable count (subjective to each of you, obviously), would you be more likely to place 1 big bet or spread multiple bets?

Let's just use $300 as the bet amount to make it easy. Would you rather bet:
1 hand @ $300
2 hands @ $150 each
3 hands @ $100 each or
4 hands @ $75 each

I think I would be more likely to say 2 hands at $150, to go for the big win but also to reduce the variance. After that, I don't think "reward" for lower variance would be as great as to justify spreading that many hands. Thoughts?

How many decks and how many other players? Generally the $300 bet would spread to 2 x $225 or 75%. In favorable counts spread just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration. Don't over bet.

Stanford Wong's book has good info on this. The covariance of BJ hands means that your risk/reward ratio does not increase much beyond 2 hands. Add to this the added attention from the pit, and he recommends 2 hands max.

2 hands of half your max is the best way to bet into a high count.

Quote: 1BB

In favorable counts spread just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration.

I definitely will start doing that. Thanks.

Quote: 1BB

How many decks and how many other players? Generally the $300 bet would spread to 2 x $225 or 75%. In favorable counts spread just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration. Don't over bet.

I was assuming the player was playing alone. How much would the answer change if it were double deck versus, say, 6 deck? Assume S17 and all other normal BJ rules.

Can you explain why a $300 bet would be $225 each over 2 hands instead of just $150 each?

Quote: dwheatley

Stanford Wong's book has good info on this. The covariance of BJ hands means that your risk/reward ratio does not increase much beyond 2 hands. Add to this the added attention from the pit, and he recommends 2 hands max.

2 hands of half your max is the best way to bet into a high count.

Thanks. Without having read his book, that's what my blackjack/mathematical intuition told me. Nice to know the "little guy" in my head is sometimes right

Quote: 1BB

How many decks and how many other players? Generally the $300 bet would spread to 2 x $225 or 75%. In favorable counts spread just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration. Don't over bet.

Oh, that's right, due to the covariance, you do bet higher than half you max. I should amend my first answer

Quote: seviay

I was assuming the player was playing alone. How much would the answer change if it were double deck versus, say, 6 deck? Assume S17 and all other normal BJ rules.

Can you explain why a $300 bet would be $225 each over 2 hands instead of just $150 each?

Heads up I play one hand to get more rounds. When other players join the table I spread to two hands in favorable counts and wong out in negative counts while the other players eat the cards.

Spreading to two hands in double deck games can bring heat. If you are going to do that start the shoe with two. You can always drop one.

I don't have the math but it's been figured at 73% of your bet on both hands. Obviously you'll want to go to 75%.

Quote: 1BB

Heads up I play one hand to get more rounds. When other players join the table I spread to two hands in favorable counts and wong out in negative counts while the other players eat the cards.

Spreading to two hands in double deck games can bring heat. If you are going to do that start the shoe with two. You can always drop one.

I don't have the math but it's been figured at 73% of your bet on both hands. Obviously you'll want to go to 75%.

Thanks. I'm not entirely sure I would understand the math even if you had it; having said that, if someone has the math, I would be curious to see it. It's somewhat curious that you would have to put down almost 50% more to account for covariance (<$450 vs. $300). That's a lot more at risk.

One other question. You said spreading 2 hands in a DD game can bring heat. Does it not also bring heat to just "Wong out" while the others eat the crap cards?

Quote: seviay

Thanks. I'm not entirely sure I would understand the math even if you had it; having said that, if someone has the math, I would be curious to see it. It's somewhat curious that you would have to put down almost 50% more to account for covariance (<$450 vs. $300). That's a lot more at risk.

One other question. You said spreading 2 hands in a DD game can bring heat. Does it not also bring heat to just "Wong out" while the others eat the crap cards?

It can. Wonging in or out is kind of an art and there different ways to do it.

Quote: 1BB

It can. Wonging in or out is kind of an art and there different ways to do it.

Any tips on doing it stealthily? I play lower stakes than this (almost never over 100/hand), and I still feel like I get the stink-eye when I chill. I feel like the pit bosses *greatly* reduce my average bet as a result, even if I only sit out a few hands.

Quote: seviay

Any tips on doing it stealthily? I play lower stakes than this (almost never over 100/hand), and I still feel like I get the stink-eye when I chill. I feel like the pit bosses *greatly* reduce my average bet as a result, even if I only sit out a few hands.

I mostly wong out. Announce that you're sitting out to change the cards. Take a restroom break or a fake phone call. The computers in many pits have a pause feature that stops your time when you take a break. So be it. It's better than losing money in negative shoes. They probably won't do it for a phone call or a few missed hands.

Quote: 1BB

I mostly wong out. Announce that you're sitting out to change the cards. Take a restroom break or a fake phone call. The computers in many pits have a pause feature that stops your time when you take a break. So be it. It's better than losing money in negative shoes. They probably won't do it for a phone call or a few missed hands.

Very cool, thanks for the advice. I probably won't get to put it to use for a while, but I'm eager to test it out. Thanks again!

Checking your phone is a great way to do it. I wong out sparingly but just enough in the worse counts that I rarely find myself playing in TC -2 conditions (non-shoe) or worse. It's easy to get up, check your phone for 5 seconds like you're reading a text message, sit back down by the completion of the one hand you missed, and then if the count hasn't improved, just hang out after gesturing to the dealer that you don't want a hand.

Quote: ico2525

Checking your phone is a great way to do it. I wong out sparingly but just enough in the worse counts that I rarely find myself playing in TC -2 conditions (non-shoe) or worse. It's easy to get up, check your phone for 5 seconds like you're reading a text message, sit back down by the completion of the one hand you missed, and then if the count hasn't improved, just hang out after gesturing to the dealer that you don't want a hand.

A practical question here: if you're "checking your phone" but actively watching the hand(s) being dealt while supposedly tending to your phone, does that never raise any issues with dealers or pit critters? I don't think I would ever gamble enough to bring too much heat, but I am curious

Quote: seviay

A practical question here: if you're "checking your phone" but actively watching the hand(s) being dealt while supposedly tending to your phone, does that never raise any issues with dealers or pit critters? I don't think I would ever gamble enough to bring too much heat, but I am curious

Wonging out is an act that, if not done convincingly, could cause them to look at other things that you may be doing. Mix it up. Pretend to answer the phone and have a conversation, other times check messages. Stand as far away from the table as possible. Stand at an angle while looking out of the corner of your eye. Hold the phone at arms length as if you need glasses. Check your phone every time the dealer shuffles, not just when the shoe tanks. It will look more believable and they may think that you're just a busy guy.

You'll have to size up each casino and even each pit in the same casino as there can be different levels of tolerance. You may be able to skip hands while sitting in place at some, have to physically go to the restroom at others while changing tables or pits is called for at still others. One important key to longevity is short sessions so don't overstay your welcome and don't start a new shoe after they've seen your max bet.

Be aware that surveillance has the ability to read the screen on your cell phone so take any precautions that you deem necessary.