Romes
Romes
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July 18th, 2017 at 11:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

I have some statistics about the probability distribution of winning a royal flush given that you held 0,1,2,3,4 or all 5 cards to a royal flush from your dealt hand.

... go on...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
PokerGrinder
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Romes
July 18th, 2017 at 11:46:17 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

... go on...


Lmao is this a na na na na na, I have the stats and you don't kind of thing?
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Wizardofnothing
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July 18th, 2017 at 11:46:28 AM permalink
I don't get that post at all
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Ibeatyouraces
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July 18th, 2017 at 11:59:30 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

I have some statistics about the probability distribution of winning a royal flush given that you held 0,1,2,3,4 or all 5 cards to a royal flush from your dealt hand.



Well it depends. Are the card preshuffled in a Chinese prison?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
KevinAA
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:21:23 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

... go on...



People were mean to me in my slot machine thread so I am sitting on the results. But I am a forgiving person... let me finish my cup of coffee and then I will release them. Attacks like those in my slot machine thread will result in the figures not being released.
monet0412
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:33:23 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

People were mean to me in my slot machine thread so I am sitting on the results. But I am a forgiving person... let me finish my cup of coffee and then I will release them. Attacks like those in my slot machine thread will result in the figures not being released.



LOL

N=X if you do 1 Lap inside the Casino and cash out 3 times divided by the amount of spins on said machine equals 102.4% payback with no variance. If X=P you head directly to the restroom where P is always +EV!!
Romes
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:33:45 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

People were mean to me in my slot machine thread so I am sitting on the results. But I am a forgiving person... let me finish my cup of coffee and then I will release them. Attacks like those in my slot machine thread will result in the figures not being released.

...and there are those of us whom had nothing to do with that and have no idea what you're even talking about (like me).

A helpful tip - Let haters hate and just try to do what you think is right... but trying to show "I'm holding information, ask nicely!" is no way to go about it. I just enjoy reading (correct) statistical information on just about anything I can, but I in no way, shape, or form need your figures. Would it be nice to read them? Sure. Do I really want to or need to? Nope. Enjoy your coffee =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
KevinAA
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July 18th, 2017 at 12:43:12 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

LOL

N=X if you do 1 Lap inside the Casino and cash out 3 times divided by the amount of spins on said machine equals 102.4% payback with no variance. If X=P you head directly to the restroom where P is always +EV!!



I never said any such thing. Stop putting words in my mouth.
monet0412
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July 18th, 2017 at 1:04:18 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

Quote: monet0412

LOL

N=X if you do 1 Lap inside the Casino and cash out 3 times divided by the amount of spins on said machine equals 102.4% payback with no variance. If X=P you head directly to the restroom where P is always +EV!!



I never said any such thing. Stop putting words in my mouth.



What did that guy in that Batman movie say... Why soooooo serious???
KevinAA
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July 18th, 2017 at 1:12:23 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

...and there are those of us whom had nothing to do with that and have no idea what you're even talking about (like me).

A helpful tip - Let haters hate and just try to do what you think is right... but trying to show "I'm holding information, ask nicely!" is no way to go about it. I just enjoy reading (correct) statistical information on just about anything I can, but I in no way, shape, or form need your figures. Would it be nice to read them? Sure. Do I really want to or need to? Nope. Enjoy your coffee =).



single drawing double double bonus with a paytable 1-1-3-4-6-9-50-80-160-160-400-50-800

I wrote a program to go through all 2,598,960 (52 choose 5) possible initial hands. For each hand, the program selects which cards to hold using basic strategy. The program then outputs one row indicating whether a royal flush is possible (e.g., not possible if you hold a pair), and if possible, how many royal flush cards were held (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or all 5). I didn't need the program to go through all possible drawn cards for the n to a royal flush hands because the probability of winning a royal flush given you hold n to a royal flush can be calculated exactly.

If you get a garbage hand with a 10 in it (2 3 7 8 10 different suits), the probability of winning a royal flush is 3 in 47 choose 5.
If you get a garbage hand without a 10 in it (2 3 7 8 9 different suits), the probability of winning a royal flush is 4 in 47 choose 5. If you hold a single J, Q, K or A (with no 10 same suit), the probability of winning a royal flush is 1 in 47 choose 4. Etc... holding 4 to a royal flush has a 1 in 47 chance of winning a RF, and of course being dealt a royal flush has a 100% chance of winning a RF.

Of the 2.6 million possible initial hands, 64% of them cannot result in a royal flush (hold a pair, or 4 to a flush, etc.). For the rest, I took the number of hands and multiplied by the probability of winning a royal flush to get the expected value for number of RF. I then took each n=0,1,2,3,4,5 to a royal flush expected values of winning a RF divided by the total to get the share of all RF's that started with n=0,1,2,3,4,5 to a royal flush.

n to a RF  hands   prob(win RF)  1 in    exp val     share of RF
0 no 10 58884 2.60767E-06 383,485 0.153549783 both zeroes below
0 w/10 52080 1.95575E-06 511,313 0.101855419 0.40%
1 585672 5.60648E-06 178,365 3.283558994 5.20%
2 201240 6.16713E-05 16,215 12.4107308 19.65%
3 25188 0.000925069 1,081 23.30064755 36.89%
4 936 0.021276596 47 19.91489362 31.53%
5 4 1 1 4 6.33%
total 63.16523617 100.00%


What this means is that of all royal flush winners, the most common ones held 3 to a royal flush -- 37% of them. That is followed by those who held 4 to a royal flush, 31.5%. Then 2 suited face cards, 20%, then a big drop to being dealt a royal flush, 6.33% of all royal flush winners, then just 1 face card at 5.2%, and the smallest share is garbage hand, only 0.4%.

The probability of being dealt a garbage hand and then winning a royal flush is 58884/2598960*2.60767E-06+52080/2598960*1.95575E-06 which is 9.82721E-08, or 1 in 10,175,830! No extra prize for that, but that's a royal flush win to be extra excited about, right? :)
Romes
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July 18th, 2017 at 1:29:21 PM permalink
Thanks for sharing, Kevin... Guess my first Royal Flush ever was "kinda" special... single Js hold. =P
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
monet0412
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July 23rd, 2017 at 1:40:15 PM permalink
I had a nice scare today with the AKJQ of Hearts on the first 4 cards... air balled the draw as well. Oh well I'll take this one for now.

Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 28th, 2017 at 5:28:27 PM permalink
Two in two days.

When betting 1 or 5 doesn't make a difference.



And when it does ☹

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 12th, 2017 at 12:22:14 PM permalink
We be clubbin' again.

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 12th, 2017 at 5:23:31 PM permalink
Only NINE hands and 5 hours later, flopped my third ever dealt royal!! Second in diamonds.

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
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September 12th, 2017 at 6:24:55 PM permalink
Damn!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 12th, 2017 at 6:46:14 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Damn!


My thoughts exactly. I saw the diamonds and hit the hold then draw buttons so fast I didn't realize it was a royal until the credits racked up fast.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
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September 12th, 2017 at 6:51:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

My thoughts exactly. I saw the diamonds and hit the hold then draw buttons so fast I didn't realize it was a royal until the credits racked up fast.


Probably shouldn't do that in the future. If that T was a 9, then you'd be holding a flush over a 4-to-royal, which obviously wouldn't be the proper play.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 12th, 2017 at 6:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Probably shouldn't do that in the future. If that T was a 9, then you'd be holding a flush over a 4-to-royal, which obviously wouldn't be the proper play.


It wasn't quite that fast. I knew it was a royal because the auto hold beat my fingers. I just hit the draw button immediately.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
monet0412
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September 13th, 2017 at 2:47:32 AM permalink
They jump up at you... don't they?? It's been about a year and a half since my last dealt royal. Not that cycles are real or something I believe in, I can't help but feel I will make one in the near future. I can only hope it's on the hundred play quarter machine I play a lot these days.

Nice Flop by the way... you got out of that bad session from spin poker pretty quick!!!

I made a few slots jackpots on dollar denomination that I almost posted to show that I will play small ball as well. Heck I'll play anything if I'm at 100% or over. I find beating reels consistently the most satisfying the last 10 years or so but VP is still king at 90% of my play.

Some really good news is that I found another glitch so I'm working that angle till they fix it!
Romes
Romes
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September 13th, 2017 at 8:02:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

My thoughts exactly. I saw the diamonds and hit the hold then draw buttons so fast I didn't realize it was a royal until the credits racked up fast.

I thought almost all machines AUTO-hold dealt royals for you? When a player on my team got a dealt royal (on triple play - with mults) the machine auto-held the hand for her.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
monet0412
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September 13th, 2017 at 8:19:15 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I thought almost all machines AUTO-hold dealt royals for you? When a player on my team got a dealt royal (on triple play - with mults) the machine auto-held the hand for her.



The only one that didn't lock mine was a sequential royal progressive. It took a second to realize it was a Royal and not a flush... after carefully holding and locking up the 50 cent Royal I asked slots if they would pay if I missed a card? The guy dismissed my question three times so I just gave up asking and didn't tip.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 13th, 2017 at 8:27:37 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I thought almost all machines AUTO-hold dealt royals for you? When a player on my team got a dealt royal (on triple play - with mults) the machine auto-held the hand for her.


It did auto hold. I saw the diamonds a nanosecond before seeing it was a royal. Just natural instinct to hit the hold and draw buttons. That's why I snapped the picture after the credits did the quick rack up from hitting the draw button so fast. If you notice in my other royal pictures, I let them rack up naturally without hitting the draw button.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
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September 13th, 2017 at 4:46:52 PM permalink
I was playing 6 card video poker or whatever it is called; AKQJT9 pays 8000 credits, but the 6th card doesn't appear until after the draw. In this case, would a dealt 5 card royal auto-hold?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 13th, 2017 at 9:14:24 PM permalink
I figured my royal luck was over so I tried $1 NSUD. Cha-ching!

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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 20th, 2017 at 5:33:22 PM permalink
The "good" VP room is being remodeled so just screwing around with a friend on nickel BP...
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 23rd, 2017 at 3:28:52 PM permalink
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
fryse
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December 24th, 2017 at 9:18:16 AM permalink
congrats on the grand
NathanV
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March 27th, 2018 at 2:33:09 PM permalink
The biggest progressive royal I've ever seen in my short time playing this game (in coins) and I got it. 102.4% EV!!!


Other royals I hit this year:








100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 27th, 2018 at 2:59:28 PM permalink
NathanV,

congrats!

$1 vp is usually $4k Royal at 5coins ($8k at 10coins).
I am shocked the Royal was worth double the amount!
I would have thought people would camp out there 24/7 in teams till it hit?

are all these casinos near where you live?
or do you travel a lot?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
NathanV
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March 27th, 2018 at 3:19:16 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

NathanV,

congrats!

$1 vp is usually $4k Royal at 5coins ($8k at 10coins).
I am shocked the Royal was worth double the amount!
I would have thought people would camp out there 24/7 in teams till it hit?

are all these casinos near where you live?
or do you travel a lot?



Thank you.

Getting a seat was not easy as it seemed like everyone in the casino knew about the play, although I don't suspect many or even any of them were experts. And thankfully no professional teams/campers were there, or at least if they were, they were not aggressive enough. I arrived at the casino and sat nearby to watch, pretended to play on a slot, and waited for about six hours before the previous player left, and then I sat down within a few seconds before anyone else could and played until I hit it.

I'd rather not say.
RS
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March 27th, 2018 at 4:56:54 PM permalink
Good stuff, NathanV. What’s the longest you’ve played a progressive?
NathanV
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March 28th, 2018 at 2:46:03 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Good stuff, NathanV. What’s the longest you’ve played a progressive?



about 14 hours I think, no hit
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