Maringale~Regression to the Mean~Fade

Listen all you Ivy Leaguers. Most of the replies wrestle with the ramifications of infinity, eventhough I've listed a FINITE example. (August, 1918, Monte Carlo casino, a streak of black is documented at 26 consecutive spins.) So, I ask again, If I had an ample supply of individuals involved in a streak of 22-24, could I turn a profit?, because unless a new world record is established (26+) I should be able to fade that streak with a martingale. In the highly unlikely event that a streak I was fading went beyond 26, I'd just tip my cap and call The Guinness Book of World Records.

You got the money to fade the action for 26 straight doublings of a $5 bet?

If you have why the holy hand grenades would you be playing Roulette?

Quote: thecesspit

You got the money to fade the action for 26 straight doublings of a $5 bet?

Bet number 20 is over 5 million bucks. Bet 26 is over 300 million. Kinda pointless to win back 5 dollars.

TheCessPit & EvenBob, Please re'read my last post. I'm not following those individuals from their 1st pick; I'm starting the fading process on those individuals when they get to 22-24 picks.

Quote: DHass22

I'm not following those individuals from their 1st pick; I'm starting the fading process on those individuals when they get to 22-24 picks.

So you are trying to find extremely unlucky or extremely lucky individuals, or what?

Quote: DHass22

So, I ask again, If I had an ample supply of individuals involved in a streak of 22-24, could I turn a profit?, because unless a new world record is established (26+) I should be able to fade that streak with a martingale.

So... they aren't actually playing for money, just betting on an empty wheel?
And then you want to take people who rolled a lot of black and send them to a money wheel to bet on red?

That's far more ridiculous than just believing in luck - if I take it right, you believe their roll history will follow them around?
What happens if two people with opposite roll history bet on the same wheel - will a small black hole form and swallow the ball?

Quote: DHass22

In the highly unlikely event that a streak I was fading went beyond 26, I'd just tip my cap and call The Guinness Book of World Records.

If you had thousands of wheels that just had 24-long streaks, it's almost certain that you will set a new world record. What makes you think it's impossible? The Guinness Book is updated all the time.

P90, 1st quote; Yes, I have ways of finding them, and they don't need to know I'm following them, and don't even need to be approached. 2nd quote; No, they aren't playing roulette, it's another 50/50 proposition bet. No, I don't believe their, "roll history will follow them around". I do believe that regression the mean will take place, example; their 24 for 24 streak will eventually drop below 95% (something like 24 for 26, 27 for 29, etc.) before I move onto the next person. 3rd quote; Yes, It's very possible, at some point a record would be set, BUT, I would be well beyond my initial investment, and playing with house money before it would happen. In fact, I've been living that for the past 5+ years. THANK YOU for posting and asking pertinent questions!, great debate!

Ah so you are finding rare occurrences of 22-long streaks and then fading the action for the next x spins with a Martingale, because "26 long streaks don't occur that often"?

Regression to the mean is meaningless over a short period (it's also Law of Large Numbers, and it's talking about over all averages), and as you said, lets not talk about infinities.

If you believe the choices are random 50/50 shots and each choice IS random and independent, the previous 22 spins have no effect on the next 22 spins. If you believe the previous spins are having an effect, then the spins are not truly random, so all bets are off.

Nevermind the fact that you will need at least $500,000,000,000,000,000,.... etc. Yep, no doubt about it. Four people should have more money than our national debt.

Duplicate. Forum locked up on me while posting again.

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