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roulette strategy question
| October 10th, 2011 at 8:23:50 AM permalink | |
| friendofafriend Member since: Oct 10, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Hi, I came up with this idea and I figure it won't actually work. But as I'm not a big gambler I can't figure out why. Overtime I think this could work. I appreciate any input. First, this idea is based of the fact that I live very close to a casino. And its based on self control. Basically my idea is that I go to the casino everyday. I walk in an place $100 on black. If I win then I walk out the door. If I lose I double down on black trying to break even. If I hit the second hand I walk away at zero (no lose, no gain). If I don't hit I keep betting until I get to zero. As soon as I break even, I leave and come back the next day. I realize this is a slow system over time but could it work if I stick to the system exactly as described above? Could I bank roll this with about $2000. I think that would be enough to consider a worst case scenario of not seeing black. Thanks! |
| October 10th, 2011 at 8:32:20 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5682 | You're describing the Martingale system. If you start at $100, with a $2000 bankroll, you'd only need FOUR losses in a row to be down $1,500 - with insufficient cash to cover the next bet. Four losses in a row is NOT at all uncommon. Further, bringing more money with you is not the answer because, sooner or later (probably sooner), you'll hit the table maximum. Bottom line: Don't do it. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| October 10th, 2011 at 9:03:22 AM permalink | |
| dwheatley Member since: Nov 16, 2009 Threads: 10 Posts: 546 | There is a picture somewhere on this site or WOO of 13 reds hitting in a row. It will happen again, it will happen to you. Play for fun, but don't double up to try and beat the casino. People have been losing money for over a hundred years trying the exact same thing Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it |
| October 10th, 2011 at 9:15:11 AM permalink | |
| Nareed Member since: Nov 11, 2009 Threads: 212 Posts: 7200 |
Not at roulette. If you want to ebat the casino, all I can think of is counting cards in BJ, if you can get away with it, or playing VP when it becomes a positive EV game (large progressive jackpots in a game with good pay tables, and/or double/triple points for comps).
I find it amazing how many people re-discover the Martngale and decide to give it a try. This space is closed for remodeling |
| October 10th, 2011 at 9:29:28 AM permalink | |
| friendofafriend Member since: Oct 10, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Ok, Thanks everyone. Does this means with smaller bets and a larger bankroll this would work in theory? Say I could cover 20 straight losses if need be, then could it be ok? |
| October 10th, 2011 at 9:46:58 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 57 Posts: 1946 |
Then it would be very unlikely that you'd ever see the 20th loss. the odds of losing 20 in a row is about 1 in 1.5 million, if my cell phone calculator math is correct. But I think you're under-estimating the amount of money that this would take. If bet one was $5, bet 21 (after 20 losses) would need to be $5,242,880. and you'd need to have a total of $10,485,750 including the $5 million bet. if you had $10 million, I'm assuming that you'd have better things to do than play $5 roulette:-) "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| October 10th, 2011 at 10:05:37 AM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 45 Posts: 2511 |
Only if the casino will book all the bets. Even if you start at $1, 20 straight losses means your next bet will be 1 * 2^20 = $1,048,576. I don't know of any $1 roulette tables which will book that bet. And do you really want to bet $1M on roulette just to make up for the prior 20 losses and win your $1? "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| October 10th, 2011 at 10:09:15 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5682 | What they're saying is, as mentioned before, you'd bump into the table limit long before you get to that point. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| October 10th, 2011 at 10:18:35 AM permalink | |
| boymimbo Member since: Nov 12, 2009 Threads: 12 Posts: 2533 | NO! This will not work in theory, at all. The casinos win money because it is their virtually infinite bankroll versus your piddly one. People leave the casino broke because they've spent their time trying to win their bankroll "back" only to find that it all is gone. Such is the joy of math and house advantage. Even if for some reason the casino was offering to pay 2:1 on black, it still would be possible for you to lose enough times in a row for you to lose your bankroll. -----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth! |
| October 10th, 2011 at 10:19:57 AM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4790 | Whether you "double up to catch up" on the next spin, the next day, the next week, etc. makes no difference. You pays your money, you takes your chance ... and you no more allow yourself to try to get cutesy with your losses than you would allow the casino to get cutesy with your winnings. Doesn't matter if its Tuesday or a nearby casino or you bet on red: plunk your money down, let Lady Variance smile upon or frown upon you as ever her whimsical nature dictates to her and then simply accept the consequences. |
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