Ridiculous Craps System

Quote: kamp56

I know he's not adding to the HA. But, I was hoping to get the mathematical analysis of the overall expectation using his hair-brained scheme.

As a dealer, I want people to WIN not lose, and I have tried to explain to him that this system hurts him rather than helps him, but he refuses to believe me. So, I want to have numbers to back up my claims.

You can do the math yourself.
Example:
http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/craps-bettingsystems.html
5th question down
You should be able to follow the Wizards math on the Iron Cross bet.
He has a link to : http://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix2.html
HA on both a per bet made and per roll basis

Results in WinCraps, not even worth the time to run different sims at least for me.
Good Luck on your efforts.
WinCraps is only $20 and you can run as many sims as you wish. If interested I could link to my auto-bet file.

Expected empirical HA 1.62% actual was 1.85% (the difference being when the bets resolved)
-$1 per 8 rolls or -12.5 cents per roll.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Wanting people to win is good, except you know that ain't gonna happen. Therefore, you should be more interested in people having a good time. And a dealer criticizing a players actions doesn't help the player have a good time.

Oh yeah, I'm well versed in the principles of appropriate dealing. And I know the HA takes it's share over time, but this customer has become a regular over the last few weeks and we have almost nightly (light-hearted) discussions about his gambling style. He even pokes fun at himself occasionally saying things like "I'm allergic to gambling" anytime someone suggests something to him. As was so delicately stated, "It's a fine line" between informing a customer and antagonizing them, and we walk that line every night with this gentleman.

He's dying a slow death every time he's at the table, and it makes him miserable. So I would rather see him just have fun and gamble than play a system that drives him insane and kills the table's mood.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

On the other hand, I'm curious. Since he's doing such whacky things, and can be labeled as hedging, why doesn't he throw $1 on the 12 on each come out roll?

It's been suggested to him before, but he refuses... so we stopped suggesting it.

OK.

It seems like you know about that fine line, and you know where it is.

I guess the only other thing I'd suggest is asking him, point blank, if it bugs him that you think he's got a bad betting style. And the only reason I say that is because it seems like it might be a regular topic of conversation. It can get old....

Quote: kamp56

He's dying a slow death every time he's at the table, and it makes him miserable. So I would rather see him just have fun and gamble than play a system that drives him insane and kills the table's mood.

He's not really doing anything different than playing inside place bets, with mostly a push on the points.
Beleive me, I do the same thing, because I play so much (HOURS and HOURS every weekend) that I watch people lose $$$$, and I finally got tired of it and rationalized that it was impossible to ever win at craps, so a buddy and I just play doey-dont to enjoy the game and not lose too teribbly much (The house I go to rates on the odds, so we both get a $60-70 average)
We stand to lose $10 every 36 come-out rolls, which is an acceptable loss rate for us, since we're getting free drinks, GREAT comps and just enjoying gambling in general.
Hell, one of the dealers (we usually get the late-night breakfast special with the "boys" after their swing shift) TOLD us "Keep doing what you're doing, as your risking VERY little to get a lot of comps."
We tip the dealers pretty good (we put the boys on the hardways, etc) so we all have a good time.

Quote: kamp56

I am a dice dealer at a casino that shall remain nameless. I recently had a player come to my table and play the most ridiculous system I have ever seen. I want to know what the numbers are for the system he is playing.

The system goes like so:

He makes a $5 pass line bet, and a $5 don't pass bet. (If a 12 rolls on the come out, he usually huffs and puffs and storms away from the table)

Once a point is established... if the point is 4 or 10, he puts $20 odds on his don't pass, if the point is 5 or 9 he put $15 odds on his don't pass, and if the point is 6 or 8 he puts $12 odds on his don't pass. So, no matter the point, he always puts enough odds to win $10 if a seven rolls.

Then, after placing his don't pass odds, he puts table-minimum place bets on the inside numbers (so, $22, $17, or $16... depending on the point)

If any of his place bets are paid... he takes down all of his place bets and his don't pass odds... leaving only his pass and don't pass base bets remaining on the table.

As far as I can tell... this system is simply ADDING to the house advantage, but I would like to know what the numbers are for it.

Can you help?

This is difficult to calculate, but here goes. I get a $.39 expected loss per resolved bet on this one.

Assume that the expected value is calculated on a resolved bet. A resolved bet is where a 12 is thrown on a come out bet, or a point is thrown and the roll after results in a financial outcome that causes him to change his bet to a zero result (removes odds on don't pass).

So, if a 12 is thrown, he loses $5. This will happen 1/25th of the time (not 1/36th, as there are 11 numbers that will not have a result). So, -$5 x 1/25 = -$.20.

If a 4 or 10 is thrown (6/25), the shooter puts up $20 odds and $22 inside. The bet is resolved when a 4 or 10, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 is thrown. There are 27 results:

(3/27) Point is thrown - Loses $20.
(18/27) 5, 6, 8 or 9 is thrown - Wins $7.
(6/27) Seven is thrown - Loses $12. (Wins $10 but loses inside bet).

Total for a 4 and 10: 6/25 * ((3/27)*-20 + 18/27 * 7 + 6/27 * -12) = -.053333

If a 5 or 9 is thrown (8/25), the shooter puts up $15 odds and $17 inside. The bet is resolved when a 5 through 9 is thrown. There are 24 results:

(4/24) Point is thrown - loses $15
(14/24) 6, 8, 9 (or 5) is thrown - wins $7
(6/24) 7 is thrown - loses $7 (Wins $10 but loses inside bet).

Total for a 5 and 9: 8/25 * ((4/24)*-15 + 14/24 * 7 + 6/24 * -7) = -.053333

If a 6 or 8 is thrown (10/25), the shooter puts up $12 odds and $16 inside. The bet is resolved when a 5 through 9 is thrown. There are 24 results:

(5/24) Point is thrown - loses $12.
(13/24) 5, 6 (or 8), 9 is thrown - wins $7
(6/24) 7 is thrown - loses $6 (Wins $10 but loses $16 inside).

Total for a 6 and 8: 10/25 *((5/24)*-12 +13/24 *7 + 6/24 * -6) = -.083333

Overall Expected Value per Resolved Bet: $.20 + .083333 + .053333 + .053333 = .39.

So, on this $5 doey - dont system, the player will lose $.39 per resolved bet. Stupid.

The average bet is $10 x 1/25 + $52 * 6/25 + $42 * 8/25 + $38 * 10/25 = $41.52. So, I guess if you divide $.39 / $41.52. the HA is 0.94 percent.

But I would rather bet $10 pass line with the full 3 / 4 / 5 odds and take my expected loss of $0.141.

Quote: boymimbo

But I would rather bet $10 pass line with the full 3 / 4 / 5 odds and take my expected loss of $0.141.

You've either got a strong stomache or a hefty bankroll...
90% of the time where I play you'd be down $500 before you knew what hit you...Ohh, you say cold table? Want to play the Don't? Ooops, all those 7/11 come outs killing you $10 a pop, then picking you off occassionally when you're on the 4/10 costing you 2:1, then winning when you're on the 6/8, not making the lost money back...
Either way you go, craps is a losing game.

Quote: pacomartin

He is simply violating the Wizard's first law which is "Don't hedge your bets".

Not to nitpick, well, maybe a little, but that's one of the Wizard's Commandments of Gambling, not a Law.

Quote: TIMSPEED

You've either got a strong stomache or a hefty bankroll...
90% of the time where I play you'd be down $500 before you knew what hit you...Ohh, you say cold table? Want to play the Don't? Ooops, all those 7/11 come outs killing you $10 a pop, then picking you off occassionally when you're on the 4/10 costing you 2:1, then winning when you're on the 6/8, not making the lost money back...
Either way you go, craps is a losing game.

LOL!!!! Timspeed: you've basically summarized the first 10 years of my craps playing experience in a simple paragraph...Bravo!!

Why can't people just appreciate the diversity of playing styles that the wonderful game of Craps allows you?!? Diversity is good for you, people!! Live a little....make a different bet every once in a while......you might like it!!

Adding "ridiculous" is redundant.

Quote: pacomartin

He isn't really ADDING to the house advantage. The HA is the sum of all the bets. He is simply violating the Wizard's first law which is "Don't hedge your bets".
He is controlling variance which makes him think he has improved the player edge.

I was under the impression that most people hedged bets like this in craps for one (possibly both) of two reasons; one, it makes their bankroll last longer; two, the casino takes all of the bets into consideration when determining comps.