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Home » Forums » Gambling » Betting Systems » Singer's evidence of VP non-randomness and betting system
Singer's evidence of VP non-randomness and betting system
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| December 26th, 2010 at 8:11:18 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 45 Posts: 2511 | As requested by several others, I have contacted Rob Singer and asked him for any evidence of his assertions that: a) there are video poker machines currently in operation in Nevada which include intentionally-programmed non-random behavior; and b) while Nevada's publicly-available Regulation 14 details very specific requirements as to the randomness a gaming machine must exhibit, the intentional non-random behavior alleged by Mr. Singer is actually legal as a result of a set of confidential gaming regulations, known only to gaming vendors and state regulators, which override or amend the meaning of the public Regulation 14. Mr. Singer has responded that he will "read/comment on Monday or Tuesday after New Years Day." I intend this thread to be a repository for any evidence Singer has to buttress his heretofore unfounded assertions, because the last thread he started got gummed up with some off-topic discussions on the meaning of bigotry or whatnot. Let's please not gum this one up until he replies. Meanwhile, Jerry, if I have misstated either of Singer's assertions above, please correct them. I specifically intend not to discuss the efficacy of Singer's bet-progression system until the question of VP non-randomness has been addressed. Note: the reason this post is in the "systems" category is because if Singer's assertions about intentionally-programmed non-randomness fall short, as I expect they will, his VP bet-progression system will be, well, just another betting system. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| December 26th, 2010 at 8:21:50 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 309 Posts: 6700 | This should be good! Let me remind you of this comment Rob made on Dec 19.
How about an official face to face debate?! I'd be happy to host it, record it, and post it on YouTube. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
| December 26th, 2010 at 10:55:18 PM permalink | |
| JerryLogan Member since: Jun 28, 2010 Threads: 26 Posts: 1344 | I think this will be interesting and I look forward to it. I'll bring it up with RS during my training later this week, but he'll probably just listen and not input anything until he reads this thread. I do have one question about ME's note: "Note: the reason this post is in the "systems" category is because if Singer's assertions about intentionally-programmed non-randomness fall short, as I expect they will, his VP bet-progression system will be, well, just another betting system." RS has alread stated, and I've repeated what he's said, that non-randomness does not have anything to do with his play strategy. He plays as if the machines were random. So if he fails to convince you on the programming thing, what does that have to do with what he says his strategy has done for him? As a trainee right now I can attest to the fact that, even though I played my first 3 sessions under his watch at an Indian casino, a venue he believes actually RIG the machines, he taught me every hold as if the machine was completely random, and I won each session. |
| December 27th, 2010 at 1:08:09 PM permalink | |
| mkl654321 Member since: Aug 8, 2010 Threads: 65 Posts: 3412 | I would also like to see some evidence of how he, being neither a "gaming vendor" nor a "state regulator", nonetheless managed to acquire hard evidence of the super-secret gaming regulations drafted by the Star Chamber and secretly implemented by the Shadow Masons per their secret charter drafted in the year 1179 by the Knights Templar, following coded instructions that can be clearly seen on every U.S. $50 bill. Soon to be a major motion picture starring Tom Hanks and Sigourney Weaver. The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw |
| December 27th, 2010 at 2:36:24 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4790 |
I too will patiently await actual supporting data for this assertion that Randomness Drowns at the River. It may even be interesting to read the supporting material about the oxygen pumped into ... oops, I mean the supporting material about the gaming Super-Regulations that were adopted while the fraternity was under Double Secret Suspension. Ooops, I mean Commission, not Fraternity. Of course those who actually live in Nevada may actually think the parallels between Animal House and the State Legislature make perfect sense. Some sloppiness in record keeping is tolerable and it is even a good sign. Pristine records often indicate fraud. However, Mr. Singer could employ a small cheap VCR and substantiate his claims quite readily. He refuses to do so and therefore I relegate his claims to a poorly formed hypothesis upon which he became too emotionally invested to remain a sufficiently neutral and detached observer. |
| December 27th, 2010 at 3:03:14 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 45 Posts: 2511 |
If we determine that the VP machines are non-random, but we don't know how, then we have no idea what the RTP is. It's incalculable, as much so as if I were dealing you a game of blackjack by spreading out the cards face-up on the table and then choosing which cards you and I would both get, or if I were to physically place the roulette ball into a specific canoe after all your bets had been made. On the other hand, if the VP machines are actually random, then all the calculations done by Wizard and other VP authors is accurate because it was under the assumption of randomness that those calculations were performed. In other words, 9/6 Jacks or Better actually does have a 99.54% optimal RTP. If that is the case, as I strongly suspect it is, then Singer's betting system is not meaningfully different than any other betting system ever devised for any other random game of chance. Betting progressions are well-known to be wholly ineffective at "beating the house". Maybe that's not well-known to everyone -- though I'd hope any regular reader of this forum would know better by now -- but it's definitely known to every gaming vendor and operator. A betting system is just a betting system, and playing VP by increasing your bets when you lose is no different than playing roulette by increasing your bets when you lose. As to what his strategy has done for him, I have no way to judge that. If he's been a big winner, good for him - he's gotten very lucky to have won a large amount of money playing -EV video poker over the years. But do not fool yourself into thinking that his strategy is a repeatable, effective way to "beat the house" at VP, any more than a similar "increase as you lose" strategy is a repeatable, effective way to beat the house at roulette. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| December 27th, 2010 at 3:14:10 PM permalink | |
| JerryLogan Member since: Jun 28, 2010 Threads: 26 Posts: 1344 |
I understand where you're coming from. That's why my belief in RS's "system" being repeatable has made me want to try it out for myself, and I will continue to report on it as I said I would, no matter how it turns out. My support for the guy comes not from any real knowledge that what he says actually works and will continue to work (because I'm not smart enough to know that at this point) but because I know him personally now, he's just a regular nice guy with a nice family, he's obviously been successful throughout his life doing whatever, and he's the only video poker player on record who's ever publicly TRIED at least to get the doubters to bet him that he can prove he both has won what he said and WILL win what he says going forward. In other words, instead of him grabbing all of us vp player's money through some slick marketing operation like Dancer and the others do, he doesn't take money from anyone and indeed has a long history of walking the walk that he talks. He represents something fresh at least to me. The math people don't like what he represents, but they also for some STRANGE REASON always seem to want to stay safe and sound rather than be sorry, whenever he wants to bet he can disporove them. I find all that very, very interesting and good reason to believe in him. |
| December 27th, 2010 at 3:17:49 PM permalink | |
| JerryLogan Member since: Jun 28, 2010 Threads: 26 Posts: 1344 |
So you're already hedging your bets? You are trying to set it up so that no matter what RS comes on here with, you won't believe because you don't want to believe it, am I correct? I can see your headache already starting, in which case Singer has already beaten you! |
| December 29th, 2010 at 12:54:44 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 45 Posts: 2511 |
If there's going to be anything, it should be a mock trial. Mr. Singer has not just advanced an innocuous claim, he has made a serious charge that two key forces in the gaming industry, the regulators and the vendors, are in a vast conspiracy to cover up what he alleges is intentionally-programmed non-randomness within video poker machines. To that end, Mr. Singer should, if he is serious about demonstrating his case, file a mock complaint which sets forth his claims and his supporting materials according to reasonable evidentiary standards. As what he claims is, on its face, a series of illegal actions by gaming vendors and/or regulations in direct violation of the laws or regulations of several states, I suggest that Mr. Singer should be required to prove his case, to a mock jury, beyond a reasonable doubt. Moreover, if Mr. Singer fails to prove his case beyond a reasonable doubt, his claims should be dismissed and -- more importantly -- publicly retracted by him. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| December 29th, 2010 at 3:54:18 PM permalink | |
| SOOPOO Member since: Aug 8, 2010 Threads: 49 Posts: 1304 |
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