I think it might be important to consider why someone might be interested in taking on the challenge and whether they might do it with less than a 50/50 shot.Quote: thecesspit
There maybe ways of being up after a 1000 hands. However is it a 50/50 shot? Probably not. I also think people under estimate the difficulty of getting ahead and staying there, especially with a small bank roll.
A quick look at worst case gaming the challange exploits gets me at best a 5.3% chance to beat your challange. Anything legit should be much worse.
Note if I started adding in odds for craps this number might go up, but it doesn't seem worth the math, since I'm fairly certain your challange is safe.
Like I said earlier, if you bet a lot early you have more chances of being up 60% than being down 100%. Following a few large bets with many minimum bets would then satisfy the challenge without incurring significant losses. 1000 hands is too little, there are many ways to win this challenge more than 50% of the time.
I wholeheartedly and respectfully disagree. If this were the case and it was really that easy, I don't think anyone would be wasting their time putting up their cash in an even money proposition bet against MB - you'd be out making money on the craps tables.
The object here is to increase your starting stack by 60%. Anyone who says they can do that 50% of the time should be playing craps full time. It's easy to say that it's a simple challenge to beat but that's the whole point; MB is putting up his money against yours and he's confident that more often than not he'll win your money.
If you bet big at the start and lose then you're not only going to lose $1,000 to MB but you'll also be down the $500 you began with. If you hit early then you have to hang on for the next 990 or so wagers and keep at least a $300 profit. Look at it this way - you're basically saying that more than 50% of the time you'll get up over $300 early in the challenge. That simply defies the odds of the game you're playing so why do you think you can do it? What bet is there on the craps layout that gives you better than even odds to win?
I'm asking because I've spent a fair bit of time looking at this since MB offered the "live" challenge. He's not asking you to be up $1.00 after 1,000 rounds... that would be tough enough but you've got to be ahead 60%! Come on. It's no different than simply playing craps against the house except that now MB has the same advantage over you that the house has and he's only offering even money. You'll probably end up beating MB the same percent of times that you'd beat the house... which as you know will be less than 50%.