As many of you know, I offer a $30,000 betting system challenge on my website, Vegas Click
. I recently overhauled the rules to make them more palatable to laypersons (e.g., instead of requiring a billion spins, it now requires only 200,000). But I'm worried that there's some loophole in my rules that someone could exploit to win my $30k. So I'm offering a $1000 reward
to anyone who can come up with a system that would beat my revised challenge rules. That means you send me your idea, at no cost to you, and if your idea beats my challenge rules then you win $1000. The caveat is that if it's clear to me that a system has no chance of exploiting my rules then I'm free to reject it on sight without wasting my time coding a simulation for it.
I should point out that the first time I offered such a $1000 reward here, weaselman won it handily -- though he graciously declined the prize! I've also gotten great advice on this forum from MathExtremist, and also good suggestions from mkl654321, AyeCarumba, atlarson, thecesspit, DJTeddyBear, Doc, SOOPOO, and RiverTern -- thanks to all!
In addition, for a long time I've wanted to offer an alternate, additional "live challenge" that takes place in a casino, to placate those who think that a computer simulation isn't a real-world test (because of their superstitious belief that the results are somehow different). The main problem in doing so is that it's hard to make a real-world test sufficiently long enough to always see it fail. But I'm making a stab at it. As you'll see in my proposed rules below, I've made a number of changes to try to account for the short-term nature of the test. However, it could still be vulnerable to exploit, because of something I didn't think of, so to motivate folks to help me find the flaw, I'm offering another $1000 reward
to anyone who can come up with a way to beat the proposed Live Challenge rules (with the same caveat as above). Here are those proposed rules in full:
Quote: Proposed "Live Challenge" rules
The challenge is the same as the regular challenge, except:
1. It takes place in a Vegas (or other U.S.) casino, with you and me (or my representative) present.
2. It's an even-money bet between you and me (not 10-1 odds), for any amount up to $30,000, with a minimum of wager of $50 per hour of play. (Time you spend not betting while waiting for "streaks" or other conditions counts as playing time.)
3. You will choose the number of rounds to wager on before we begin (1000 to 10,000 rounds).
4. All play must be completed within one month.
5. Starting bankroll is half the number of total rounds, in dollars. (e.g., a 1000-round challenge means a starting bankroll of $500.)
6. You win if you achieve a profit of at least $15 for every 50 rounds, on average (roughly equivalent to $15 per hour of play).
Ideas for beating the live challenge will be tested by computer simulation, not in the casino, to save time.