All Or Nothing Bet

I would like to share something with you all about trying to make a anonymous win with a part of your winnings.
Please let me explain first...

I'm a blackjack player who plays a lot in Holland Casino. I don't play very special, just flat bet with €40,- or €50,- each round and use basic strategy. Every evening I have a winning and a losing target and at the end of the month I mostly have won a bit or lose a bit (close to break-even every month so it's only fun and I cannot make a living of it).

My question is about the winning evenings. My winning target with betting €50,- each for example is round €1.000,-. Sometimes I feel €950,- is enough and sometimes I have a good double or blackjack at the end and I quitte with €1.075,- for example.

I always take a little piece of my winning (let's say €30,- or €40,-) and go to an other game. For example roulette, and put in on red until I lose (I try to paroli it and hope for 20x red).
Offcourse, I don't mind losing the €40,- of my winning... I just hope one day I have a lucky streak.

So do other people recognise this? What would you do when you have won for example €1.040,- and go do 1 last bet with the €40,-.

Put it on a colour on roulette and hope for a winning streak? In Holland Casino the table maximum is €10.000,- so with 15 to 20x red in a row you win big. The house edge on this single zero wheel is 1.35% bacause '0' gives back half of your bet.

Maybe Punto Banco (Baccarat) is better with an house edge of 0,93%. In Holland we don't have tax on Banco (banker) but when Banco wins with '5' it only pays 1:2. But in Holland Casino Zandvoort the maximum Punto/Banco bet is only €1.000,-.

Or try a lucky shot on Caribbean Stud with a jackpot bet extra for €0,50?.. and the ante bet is €10,- so you can raise to €30,- in total.
Just one shot and see what happens.
The Royal Flush is around €50.000,- but the chance is so little.

So what do you people think is your best shot with your last 'fun' bet. Which is your best option?

An last thing, we don't have Craps in Holland, so that leaves is for only 2 serious options looking at jackpots and table limits: roulette or caribbean stud (with jackpot).

What would yo do:)?

Since the money is throwaway anyway, I would put it on a number in Roulette. I assume you have single zero there in Holland. For example, a $1 bet on red has an 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 x 18/37 = 2.72 percent chance of success to turn into $32. A $1 bet on a number has a 2.70 percent chance to turn into $36. I would go with a single bet approach and try to earn a cool $1,080 - $1,440 smackers.

Let's imagine that at the moment you enter the casino, your total personal wealth is 76,874 euro. You have a good day and you win 1,040 euro. Your total personal wealth is now 77,914 euro.

Looking at it that way, do you now have any particular urge to make a foolish "throwaway" bet for 40 euro? Should you treat that money any differently just because it was the "40" out of your win of 1,040?

Quote: mkl654321

Let's imagine that at the moment you enter the casino, your total personal wealth is 76,874 euro. You have a good day and you win 1,040 euro. Your total personal wealth is now 77,914 euro.

Looking at it that way, do you now have any particular urge to make a foolish "throwaway" bet for 40 euro? Should you treat that money any differently just because it was the "40" out of your win of 1,040?

Understand that for some of us, the answer to that is, "Yes, absolutely!" And it's why the action seems reasonable to some and not to others.

What is best of your statement is the way you frame it, taking out all the BS. Reduce it to its most minimal description, then act as you feel best. One man bets, another does not. As it should be.

And now let me explain why I WOULD NOT make that bet, and never do.

When do you decide to stop doubling up? How do you know? If I put $100 on red, and let it ride: 100, 200, 400, 800. Is that enough? No? OK.... 1600! WOW! Is that enough? What if RED hits again? OK..... 3200! YIPPEE! Lets go for 6400.....



oooh. Bummer.

Which is kind of the same thing that you said, but coming at it from the attitude that the bet is fun. No, it's not, at some point it becomes bigger than originally conceived, and that point is variable among players. $40 might be fun, but $400 might not be. $3200 would not be a fun bet for me.

Yeah, I don't think I want to play that game. It always ends at 0. I know, the original example ends at the house limit. Still, it takes too many goofy things to happen to make it worth it for me to watch it end in 0 that many times in a row.

Quote: mkl654321

Let's imagine that at the moment you enter the casino, your total personal wealth is 76,874 euro. You have a good day and you win 1,040 euro. Your total personal wealth is now 77,914 euro.

Looking at it that way, do you now have any particular urge to make a foolish "throwaway" bet for 40 euro? Should you treat that money any differently just because it was the "40" out of your win of 1,040?

We know what you're saying.

Put another way, there is no such thing as, "Playing with the house's money."

Once you've won it, IT'S YOUR MONEY!

---

Having said that, I can certainly see the desire to throw a couple bucks at a whacky bet on the way out if you're up.

But, as boymimbo pointed out, playing one inside number, is almost a dead even for an even money and letting it ride.

If you miss your number, you're done, go home.

If you HIT it, take the winnings, let the bet play again, and be thrilled if it's a double. If not, you don't have to beat yourself up for leaving the bet up, trying to parlay a longshot.

I usually tend to give this money as tip for those employees that deserve it, so that my night ends happy and theirs too...
But when I gamble I do it on roullete, single zero, but not on the outside bets, always inside. I think it is the best house edge for big payouts... I would put 10 in four different numbers, maybe...

So what you are really asking is what is the "final fling" bet. You may have carefully husbanded your money all night long but its late, the cards, booze and broads are coming to an end for the evening and its time to be a bit less careful and a bit more focused on the potential for a big win but with a joyous abandonment of caution you still retain an awareness of the probabilities involved.

Well, the first thing is make sure its something you really find to be fun.

I'd play roulette all night on the outside bets but make my final bet a straight up one or at the very least some sort of inside bet.

Its a whimsical acknowledgment that the night is drawing to a close, you are ahead, but its not by all that much and so you might just as well "go for it" and see what happens even though you know what is most likely to happen.

I don't play inside bets on the roulette in Holland. In Holland there is a different rule. When playing on the 'even money' bets like 1-18/19-36, even/odd or black/red you get back half your bet when the green zero comes out. So, the house edge on this bets is 1,35%.. and playing inside bets or dozens you have 'the normal' 2,7% house edge.

What I did last time is split up the €40,- and put €20,- on red and €20 on 'odd' and play as long as the money was gone. If the '0' comes out you can still play on with €10,- on both bets.

Anyway, some of you may find it stupid I throw away my last €30,- or €40,- when I get over my winning target.
I do it with a particular reason. As I said, I don't win big when I play blackjack (flatbet basic strategy) in the casino. At the end of the month I mostly have a good result and won a little bit of money. Just a little bit because I can't win every day. They use a shuffle machine and the house edge is around 0,6%.. so only with basic strategy and dicipline I can get a little bit in front of my starting money and the end of the year.
The reason I 'throw away' a part of my winning is there is always a little chance you hit an unbelieveble winning streak and go home with lots, lots, lots of money (and I only risked €30,- or €40,- of my winnings for it).
It's not that strange is it?

I think mostly everyone here plays with dicipline and plays games with low house edges and set targets to theirselves.
But beside that, everybody has the dream that one day you win BIG, without risking a lot of money.

And when do I stop? No problem, when I have a streak of 6 or 7 on the roulette I have already €2.000,- or more. My next bet won't be €4.000,- be will be €2.000,- again with the other €2.000 going home. If I keep continue with the winning streak I play up to the maximum of €10.000 and quitte on the moment I lose 1 bet.

Caribbean Stud may be more wise. Only 1 bet, of you get crappy cards, just fold and walk away with the €20,-.
The bet thing about Caribbean Stud is that a Royal Flush is the only interesting uitcome.
The Straight Flush and 4 of a Kind will only give you around €2.000 and €1.000 + a bit extra when the dealer qualifies.
So hitting 6 or more in a row on roulette has a bigger chance then taking a Royal Flush on the Stud table.

In the end, it's always fun.. because I already have a good evening. I don't give a damn about the €40,- when I already put €1.000 in my pocket.

Quote: Ramond

In Holland there is a different rule. When playing the even money bets the house edge is 1,35%.. and playing inside bets or dozens you have 'the normal' 2,7% house edge.

Normal for most of us is 5.28 percent!!
The point is that when its 40 and you've just had a profit of 1,000, then you might as well not worry too much about the house edge and just risk it for a major payoff.

I'm hoping that someone can help me out with some game math here. Isn't putting a single unit on a 36 for 1 bet (one number) a better bet than parlaying a 2 for 1 (even money) bet to reach similar ends? I might be completely off base here, but I thought that I came to a mathematically correct answer to this before. If the large payout bet is indeed a better bet - please explain it to me.

Quote: Ramond

In the end, it's always fun.. because I already have a good evening. I don't give a damn about the €40,- when I already put €1.000 in my pocket.

Not to belabor the point, but thinking like this is EXACTLY why casinos make money. Put yourself at your desk at work, in the grocery store, at home watching TV. 40 dollars--or 40 euro--might seem to you like a decent amount of money. Not life-changing or anything like that, but with it, you can buy a couple of good books, take the family out to McDonald's, pay the cell phone bill with it, etc. Take it into a CASINO, and suddenly it's just a throwaway, afterthought tiny little chunk of money that you might as well just blow on a silly, longshot bet.

And lest anyone say that yeah, but he's still way ahead, so what, I would expect the exact same thing to occur if such a player brings 1000 euro to the casino and finds himself down to his last 40 euro--he'll try to find a silly longshot bet to get himself even.

What I've said elsewhere (and few seem to agree with or understand) is still true--"SESSIONS" are meaningless. It's all one long session, until you die. You shouldn't make a bet you wouldn't normally make just because of the results of one artificial so-called "session". Also, money is fungible, so the money you just won is just as valuable as that money that was your paycheck. Yet, I doubt that very many people cash their paycheck and immediately go and buy $40 worth of lottery tickets--not if they're responsible. That "extra" $40 (or euro) burning a hole in your pocket after a big score shouldn't be treated, or regarded, any differently.

The casinos make so much money precisely because after enough casino exposure, people devalue that money, or think of it as something else altogether.

If you make a $40 single 0 roulette bet on your way out of the casino every time, you're really just throwing $40 x .025 (approximate house edge) each time. So you're throwing away $1, not a big deal. As long as you plan on doing it before you go, and adjust your session accordingly, what's the big deal?

As for the "sessions are meaningless" comment, you're dead wrong. The reason most people gamble is for short-term sessions.

Yeah, yeah, you're an AP, good for you. I'm not. I go to the casino once a month for four hours, and hope to win $100 playing pai gow, instead of lose $100. If I'm down $50 after four hours, maybe I put that $50 out there, so I either break even or lose it all.

For some of us, gambling is fun. If someone wants to put $40 out there to try to win $1200 at the end, then do it if it's fun. If you don't want to, that's fine to.

Quote: FinsRule

As for the "sessions are meaningless" comment, you're dead wrong. The reason most people gamble is for short-term sessions.

Which are illusory. As I said, most people neither understand nor agree with that statement. But it really means nothing to be "ahead for this session". Really, does that have any actual significance, if you will gamble again at some point in the future?

I agree with you that a single $40 roulette bet costs relatively little. What costs is the HABIT of making such bets. The worst possible outcome of a throwaway bet like that would be to win it.

And the above statements have nothing to do with my being an AP, by the way. If you play -EV games, you can still play them carefully, methodically, and in optimal fashion. Going loco and making on-a-whim bets is the antithesis of that. But, to each his own. It's like snorting cocaine instead of drinking Red Bull--the dramatically increased high is definitely there.

MKL -

While I totally agree with your points, please realize that people go to casinos to have fun. Throwing an extra 40 down on the way out is fun - even if you lose.

Quote: mkl654321

The casinos make so much money precisely because after enough casino exposure, people devalue that money, or think of it as something else altogether.

This is absolutely true as well. It is amazing that the same person who will scrutinize the unit price labels in the grocery store, and/or clip coupons, will not hesitate to throw down a green chip for 30 seconds of fun.

If it weren't for the fact that after those 30 seconds, you can sometimes retrieve that green chip, along with some more like it, none of us would ever gamble.

Quote: mkl654321

What costs is the HABIT of making such bets. The worst possible outcome of a throwaway bet like that would be to win it.

Because it may encourage...gambling?

Geez, I'm starting to feel bad about shooting craps at all....

Quote: mkl654321

Not to belabor the point, but thinking like this is EXACTLY why casinos make money.

What are you, the Unabomber or something? Is someone making money BAD?

So what if they make money. If the guy gets a fair thrill for his buck, why do YOU care if the casino makes money on it? Because it doesn't suit YOU?

Quote: Mosca

What are you, the Unabomber or something? Is someone making money BAD?

So what if they make money. If the guy gets a fair thrill for his buck, why do YOU care if the casino makes money on it? Because it doesn't suit YOU?

Jeez, relax.

The "thrill" is like the "thrill" of any addictive drug--it eventually takes larger and larger doses to produce it. My point, which seems to have whistled far over your head, is that eventually, and usually sooner than later, the guy does NOT get "a fair thrill" for his buck.

But hey, don't take this so goddamn personally. If YOU want to blow some scratch gambling, YOU go right ahead.

Quote: Calder

Because it may encourage...gambling?

Geez, I'm starting to feel bad about shooting craps at all....

No, because it may foster the delusion that even if you get your ass kicked in the casino, all you have to do is plunk down the last few smackers on number 17, and it'll be all better. Illusory positive reinforcement.

Quote: mkl654321

Jeez, relax.

The "thrill" is like the "thrill" of any addictive drug--it eventually takes larger and larger doses to produce it. My point, which seems to have whistled far over your head, is that eventually, and usually sooner than later, the guy does NOT get "a fair thrill" for his buck.

But hey, don't take this so goddamn personally. If YOU want to blow some scratch gambling, YOU go right ahead.

Hehe, thanks for the invite. I'll relax. No, your point didn't whistle over my head. Mine might have whistled over yours, though. Not everyone has to have that bigger and bigger thrill. He's risking $40 euro, right after winning 1040 euro. Think of your question this way: "Would you rather be handed 1040 euro, or 1000 euro and a long shot at really big money?" Not everyone will answer the question the same way you will.

My point is that not everyone is the same as you are. I enjoy your perspective. But it takes all kinds of us to make the big picture work for all of us.

Offcourse a lot of people don't have the same view on this situation. It's a wise thing to say hey: 'why throw that €40,- away'?
At the end of 5 winning night you might have thrown €200,- (40x 5) away on an almost impossible long lucky shot?
€200, is a decent amount of money.. you can buy some clothes, do some nice things or go to a nice restaurant.

But thats not my point... if I always play safe and take the full €1.040,- I will never get rich. I always have to work to pay the rent and the winnings I have (or losses when I had bad luck) at the end of the year are small. The way I gamble.. it doens't give you lots of money because of the 0,6% disadvantage on BJ. I can't count cards because of the shuffle machines and the other games have bigger house advantages (Punto Banco 0,9%, Roulette 1.35% and CS above 5%).

I consider a different way to use that €40,-. Try only 1 bet on Caribbean Stud with an ante bet of €10,- and 1 jackpot bet of €0,50.
When I have shitty cards, fold and I still have €30,- and leave. When I have a good combination I might lose but can also walk away with more then €40,-.
It's less risky and more safe and there is always a little possability to hit that Royal Flush and get the progressive jackpot.

The problem is, a Royal Flush only appears 1/650.000 hands (or maybe worser). 10-15 times red/black on Roulette might have better chances and with the €10.000 maximum bet on roulette I could go higher then that jackpot on CS.

There is no such thing as good or stupid. The reason we gamble is hope to make a lot of money and have fun.

Leave the casino with €1.040 is wise.. no comments at all! Great job!
Leave the casino after you try to make an extreme lucky bet with €40,- of your €1.040 is also not stupid, you might be a lucky winner.

There was a craps player at Sunset Station who would routinely finish his session by coloring up and then putting it all on the passline and then leave the table after that bet (win or lose). He called it a "chunk bet". It was usually on the order of a few hundred dollars.

I don't have any equations to back this up, but if I were doing this, I would put it in the best VP machine I can find. Do they have $10 machines in the high-rollers area?

You would have a decent chance of doubling your money, and smaller chances to win a lot more.

Video Poker... hmm.. I never play on machines. I believe the biggest bet on a VP machine is €5,-.

So just 1 bet or how do you do it? Whats your own experience?

You could try a parlay... place 40 on red. If it hits, take half and play the rest. Rinse and repeat until you busto, or hit such a run that the big bet is enough to make you happy.

That said, I'd probably hit 4 numbers on the table, and play the same sort of tactic take half, rebet half.

Funny enough, I have two separate articles about these concepts:

Half-Bankroll Betting System: https://easy.vegas/gambling/halfies

How to win $1 million on table game: https://easy.vegas/gambling/how-to-win-million-dollars