Baccarat Simulator

Quote: buzzpaff

Why not spend that time learning to play hold-em poker, Or enter a satellite and win an entry to WSOP. Why not chase a longshot,
instead of an impossible dream ? If poker, when played right, especially no limit a 2&7 can chase Aces away. But no matter how many simulations you run, at the end of the day, 2 plus 2 still equals 4 !!!

Well, that's a hard one to explain. A month's spare time to set it up in the spring; and another's now, again to keep it free and open. Maybe it's "worth it" if it only discourages a few of the uninitiated from some of these games, and the less-reputable internet-sites and proponents of? Beyond that, i harbor no illusions or undue expectations of beating this game (in theory). But will we ever really know who we are until we honestly try out a "no-win scenario"? That's my personal fun and challenge here, "What would i do if i had to do something".

Everything else aside, at the poker-table, maybe; and in real life, the strongest are destined to win. "Water seeks out the path of least resistance." What's so interesting about that, out of the grand scheme of things?

New version at http://www.megaupload.com/?d=0OY62VHJ .

Added banker-commission to test #11, along with the other banker's gains/losses while randomly trying to gain X wins over one shoe. Also, added a run-of-zero checker to the run-stats. Now, those shoes without a T won't go unnoticed.

Test #13 was added to get us up to speed on the rudimentary "starts" of baccarat, the first two cards to either P, or B. (Tests #1, 2, 3, 7, 11, and 13, are functional.)

The game-outcome classifications have been completed. But as usual, not fully-proofed on the first edition.

But do your homework first. Don't spend 20 years in some dingy, tacky casino without a real plan if you're hoping to win. Simulate it, especially if it keeps changing without any definite form to begin with.

Has anyone else noticed the story about beating EZ-baccarat's dragon-bet? Perhaps, the Wizard noted it somewhere on this board but i missed that?

It's at http://wizardofodds.com/baccarat/card-counting-dragon-bet.html .

Asfaras i'm aware, others have been doing the same thing with also some of the other types of dragon-bets for some time. Which i would like to review later, though i'm mainly concerned with beating the standard game of baccarat.

Quote: Garnabby

Has anyone else noticed the story about beating EZ-baccarat's dragon-bet? Perhaps, the Wizard noted it somewhere on this board but i missed that?

It's at http://wizardofodds.com/baccarat/card-counting-dragon-bet.html .

Asfaras i'm aware, others have been doing the same thing with also some of the other types of dragon-bets for some time.

Yes.
The thread can be found here Card Counting the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat

And the Dragon7 and Dragon bets have been looked into also by discountgambling.net
+EV Rapid Baccarat Dragon @ Barona Casino

Quote: Garnabby

Which i would like to review later, though i'm mainly concerned with beating the standard game of baccarat.

My thoughts on beating the game of Baccarat.
If you keep your lifetime shoes to about 18,250 played max (1 shoe every day for 50 years)
and increase your banker winning percentage from ~0.50682483 (8deck) to ~0.512820513, not counting ties of course, anything higher than 0.512820513 win percentage will be pure profit.

That is only an increase of 0.005995683

Just use your simulator and programming skills to find the situations that will increase your win percentage and you and many others will be home free.

Even the Wizard in his book "Gambling 102" tells how to gain a long term advantage over the Big 6 wheel (a very high house edge game) by just increasing your predictions of which half the wheel will land on. Should be able to apply the same thought to any game with a high payoff.

Thanks, 7craps.

I don't have a lot of free time to keep up with all of the developments across these boards, especially the busy ones. The one other thing i want to do here, in the near future, is start that thread that the Wizard repeatedly deferred me to... regarding the philosophical, ethical, and practical, aspects of, eg, entertaining a career such as his. (I prefer to tackle the "side-pots" as-arise, when my "heart" is in it; but it's his site.)

As for the rest of this thread, i have one more offering.
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http://www.megaupload.com/?d=URFOZVLB

Simulation-options finalized. Abort codes are "-1" for the numeric entries; "A" for the alpha-entries, to re-start entries upon a typo.

When simulating 999 shoes, an equivalent of 16 decks shall be applied. Eg, 999 1-deck shoes at 16 X's. This allows for an ample number of such shoes which, run over 5 tables, will show up the standard deviations at work to produce a satisfactory result for all intents and purposes.

Summary-symbols have been extended, and the errors from last week's offering corrected. Symbols beginning with a number indicate the low score of that natural; or the game-distance from the last tie in the case of the 9-8 and 8-9 outcomes. The latter is a bit of tinkering leading up to a more general look at the additive orientation of those outcomes. Test #15 deals with the symbols the way #3 with the P-B runs, and those followers.

Still a couple of the stats to properly attend to. Focus has shifted inward, to the remainder of the incomplete test #'s.

In the future, for anyone who remains interested in this project here, i will likely merely edit in the new versions, where possible, instead of bumping it again.
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http://www.megaupload.com/?d=8KZ25PC1

Not much time of late, but in the interest of keepint this part of the project alive, here is some new work.

Added test #4, a general way to re-set the initial composition of the cards.

Next will be a related test to determine how often those altered compositions occur over many shoes as each card of each shoe is dealt off.

Then the specific way to determine both the advantage of a given card-count, and the frequency of such a count beginning with each new game.

As usual, i will try to correct the errors in this week's work next week.
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"Next will be a related test to determine how often those altered compositions occur over many shoes as each card of each shoe is dealt off.

Then the specific way to determine both the advantage of a given card-count, and the frequency of such a count beginning with each new game."

Those objectives have been completed in the form of tests #27 and #18, respectively, and may be freely downloaded from this link, http://www.megaupload.com/?d=FS0SJY3P .

Over the next week or two, i'm going to spend a bit of spare time cleaning up everything in the simulator so far. Thanks to the few persons who pointed out some of my errors to date. It helps move things ahead faster. It's probably about half way to a real world-class simulator. Though i will NEVER make the most-advanced work public, i will endeavor to include with my simulator some basic elements from each part of that work.

And there's bound to be some of each in the new tests as well, which were actually completed a few days ago but were not yet much run to even confirm that those would run at all. Bit-by-bit to go "onward and upward", as they say.
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http://www.megaupload.com/?d=YKU6RMV0 .

Most of the corrections were to test #18. Changed the self-adjusting type count to the regular, bj-sort. And took out one line of code which was preventing the thing from working... though it did run, and with the two boundary-tests i used last week. (Goes to show that you can never be too-sure up front.)