AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 7th, 2017 at 1:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

The longer you stay, the greater the chance of losing.

And that makes sense to me since it's -EV and you are exposing more money to the HA.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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April 8th, 2017 at 6:50:46 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Not big wins , 200-500 a pop.... but they are wins.



About $40,000 per year if you follow a regular schedule, and up to $150,000+ if you play most every day. Very nice
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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April 11th, 2017 at 9:29:51 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Martingale can be a way of making a small amount of profit with a a high probability of success. The downside to which is the small probability of a massive loss.
You need to look at the probability of your system, whatever it is, making a certain percentage profit. Generally making a meaningful profit is the objective. If you walk into a session with a $1,000,000 expendible bankroll, you can pretty much guarantee winning $10 in that session, and the next and the next, but what's the point?

That's where my rule of thumb comes in. Applies to any low edge game and shows the probability of winning sessions for such target betting. Maybe take a read through...
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Nice post OnceDear.

You might want to add a section about "hourly rate" and "opportunity cost".

a) What is the hourly profit of visiting a casino once/day to play a martingale system?
e.g. if it takes you two hours/day to drive there, play, and come home...
and you play with bankroll X, how does that compare to other gambling things you can do with the same bankroll X?

Consider picking up a hypothetical $10 FP every day from 8 casinos.
How does it compare to picking up plastic/aluminum recycling for cash?

b) If you have a bankroll X, how much can you make invested in the S&P 500?
Compare that with your gambling method.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 12th, 2017 at 2:57:19 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

Nice post OnceDear.

Thanks.

You might want to add a section about "hourly rate" and "opportunity cost".


The mean average hourly rate is simply (-House Edge) * (Sum Wagered) I.e. on average you are paying the house for entertainment. Potentially $1,000,000 per session.
I wouldn't do that for $10 per visit and I certainly wouldn't do it 8 times per day.
Quote:

a) What is the hourly profit of visiting a casino once/day to play a martingale system?
e.g. if it takes you two hours/day to drive there, play, and come home...

For an average hourly loss! No thanks. And to waste hours a day driving to such jeopardy would be adding insult to injury. Such Marty sessions as I envisaged would be very short compared to wasted travelling time. Again. No thank you.
Quote:

. . .and you play with bankroll X, how does that compare to other gambling things you can do with the same bankroll X?

On average one would make a loss, of course. I think it better to consider wagering as entertainment expense and travelling to the casino as part of that entertainment event. Can't put monetary value on fun. I don't play russian roulette for fun, same goes for Martying a big bankroll for peanuts.
Quote:

Consider picking up a hypothetical $10 FP every day from 8 casinos.
How does it compare to picking up plastic/aluminum recycling for cash?

With the latter, one doesn't need or risk massive bankroll and doesn't sound much like fun. If you have $1,000,000 you wouldn't be tempted by either option. Then again, visiting 8 casinos per day sounds a chore not worth doing.
Quote:

b) If you have a bankroll X, how much can you make invested in the S&P 500?
Compare that with your gambling method.

t's not my gambling method! I guess that bit was aimed at the OP?
There's such a vast range of options for what one COULD do by way of investing a massive bankroll that I'm really not bothered to explore them.
Needless to say that the bulk of MY investments are in other opportunities such as real estate, interest bearing p2p lending and stocks. Still gambling of sorts, but +ev
I would only ever gamble expendable fun money. I
Embrace the Variance
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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April 12th, 2017 at 11:31:34 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

About $40,000 per year if you follow a regular schedule, and up to $150,000+ if you play most every day. Very nice



Tnx. Not doing it for a living , but its a nice supplemental.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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April 13th, 2017 at 3:17:43 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Needless to say that the bulk of MY investments are in other opportunities such as interest bearing p2p lending




What interest rate do you charge?

What are your collections techniques?
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 13th, 2017 at 3:58:09 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

What interest rate do you charge?

What are your collections techniques?

i charge between 3.5 and 4.5 percent annualised using Ratesetter.com usually in the rolling market which means money on loan for one month. The p2p platform handles all selecting, loan processing collections and default chasing g. No cost to me if borrower defaults. Peer to peer is a big and mature market in the UK. Is it so in the US?
Embrace the Variance
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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April 13th, 2017 at 4:29:31 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Peer to peer is a big and mature market in the UK. Is it so in the US?




Peer to peer lending is not as big as it once was in the U.S. but still you can find a guy named Vinnie in Brooklyn who can get you 2 large but you owe him back the 2 large plus an extra $400 per week for each week the loan is not paid back in full. Vinnie just tells you how much extra you owe. He doesn't have a calculator and he doesn't bother figuring out interest rates. If you don't pay on time you might not feel so good for a few weeks after he makes his collections efforts.
"gambling improves the flavor of life" ................... Nick the Greek
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 13th, 2017 at 8:44:14 PM permalink
So for me this is something I want to tinker with. I am not a professional gambler, don't even live in Vegas I live in Tampa where we have the hardrock and an "organic craps machine" I have no dreams of a mad system making me rich that nobody else has though of in the last 200 years.

What I was interested in was the math and percentages. While you guys are correct that the dice have no memory of the previous roll the laws of probability do have some merit and impact which was the reason for my initial request for the math. In probability theory, the law (or formula) of total probability is a fundamental rule relating marginal probabilities to conditional probabilities. It expresses the total probability of an outcome which can be realized via several distinct events. In this case the field number vs the no field number. Everyone knows the percentages on an individual roll but as the streak goes in length from a F to NF roll the probability's of the next number being a NF roll increase. My goal was to figure out the percentages which several fine folks helped with.

So in comparison I being from Kentucky I also bet the horses races (actually daily) and I handicap the races, create my own odds and look for value plays where my odds are lower than the current line a couple minutes before post (an overlay)

so 6 rolls (4 no bet two bet) in if the odds are 2% that the next number is a NF that makes the bet attractive to me depending on the level of the bet I am at

Craps is not my primary game in the casino (Pai Gow and No Limit live poker) as stated earlier but I usually give it a go here and there in Vegas. Same with Roulette. I fool around with it but not my primary game. This "system, theory," whatever you want to call it has a little interest to me. I can play craps and stay a while. I can adjust the number of rolls etc before I jump in and not get damaged with the most I would lose and 3, 6, 12, 24, 50 (total) $95 (and 9 missed rolls) at Casino Royale or 5-10-20-40 and $75 at the $5 tables on the strip (8 rolls)

I know chances are I can at some point in the trip will take the full hit on this "System" but the $100 I will throw at it will not dent my bankroll enough to have any impact.

Not something I am looking to get rich off of just tinker with, earn some craps comps, minimal investment and a little fun and maybe walk away with a profit a few times
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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April 13th, 2017 at 11:20:03 PM permalink
TS; Who makes the craps machine and what are the limits?

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