TERMINATOR
Joined: Feb 26, 2017
• Posts: 10
March 6th, 2017 at 7:57:47 AM permalink
I'm sorry, I guess my question was too vague. I will rephrase my question.

If I had just ONE CHIP ONLY to bet, which bet at a casino would give me the BEST chance of winning THAT bet AND the very next bet. My goal is to take the winnings from the first bet, then Parlay those winnings on the Second bet. If I win, I stop betting.

Thanks.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4028
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March 6th, 2017 at 8:11:37 AM permalink
Well, I hope you know this is a poor plan if you're trying to make money and it's doomed to failure in the long run (short run will just be variance either way).

That said, given your 1 chip requirements... lay the 4/10 in craps as suggested. Each independent trial you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning, and you only need one chip (though it has to be 1 chip big enough for the table requirements).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
• Posts: 6302
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March 6th, 2017 at 9:00:41 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

... given your 1 chip requirements... lay the 4/10 in craps as suggested. Each independent trial you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning, and you only need one chip (though it has to be 1 chip big enough for the table requirements).

I don't make lay bets, so I might have some of this incorrect....

Just to be picky perhaps, I think the complicating factor of a one-chip lay bet is "How do you pay the vig?" If the vig is collected up front, you need a second chip just to pay that, or your wagered chip has to be broken down.

If you have a casino that will allow a lay 4/10 with vig paid only on the win, then a bet of X will win X/2 less a 5% commission, so that you would then have 1.475 X parlayed as your second wager. If that wager wins, you will then have (1.475)^2 X to take home from the experiment.

What kind of chip are you starting out with such that 2.175625 times that chip amount is easily paid in chips?

How do they round off the vig on a lay bet for really odd amounts?
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 1995
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March 6th, 2017 at 9:36:05 AM permalink
Quote: TERMINATOR

Also, I have a question about the PASS LINE and DON'T PASS in Craps.
I know they are both pretty close as far as odds of winning.
HOWEVER, is one more LIKELY to win TWO in a row than the other bet?

depends if you count a tie or not for the dpass.

the probability of the pass line winning the very next two times is
244/495 * 244/495
a little less than 1 in 4 (nice)

the dpass
can push on a 12 on the come out roll
so to win the very next two times is
949/1980 * 949/1980

less than the pass
:)
but
if you try again after a push (get nervous too)
in other words, you keep betting after a push
949/1925 * 949/1925

in summary
not counting ties...

pass = 0.242979
dpass =0.243036

real close baby
have fun no matter the outcome
Sally

Oh yes,
btw
the higher the probability of winning (over 50%) the less one wins
even at sports betting 2
I Heart Vi Hart
TERMINATOR
Joined: Feb 26, 2017
• Posts: 10
March 6th, 2017 at 1:22:30 PM permalink
Thanks for your detailed answer, Sally. It seems you always give me the answer I'm looking for!

And thanks to everyone else who answered my question. The Lay on the 4/10 is a good answer. I will consider that.

And just so everyone knows, I am not planning on betting only ONE chip. My question relates to a very intriguing Parlay Progression which I have been having an incredible amount of success with. I mentioned this in another email, but the progression goes like this:

1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7

Basically, if I win at ANY stage in the progression, I parlay. If I win that parlay, I stop and begin again. If I lose, I continue with the progression.

I was simply looking for a casino bet with the best chances of me winning.

Thanks again for all your input everyone.
slyworm
Joined: Mar 3, 2017
• Posts: 6
March 6th, 2017 at 1:54:25 PM permalink
I love negative progression systems myself, but just remember, it doesn't affect the odds of the game, no matter which bet you choose. Negative progression allows you to have many small wins over many sessions, with a large loss on a single session.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 1995
March 6th, 2017 at 3:18:16 PM permalink
Quote: TERMINATOR

My question relates to a very intriguing Parlay Progression which I have been having an incredible amount of success with. I mentioned this in another email, but the progression goes like this:

1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7

Basically, if I win at ANY stage in the progression, I parlay. If I win that parlay, I stop and begin again. If I lose, I continue with the progression.

without looking more into it, I do not think your progression will work
as is
for a Lay bet,
even the Banker bet at Baccarat because of the commission required to pay on a win or making the bet.
I could be wrong...
<<<<< >>>>>
the lay bet 4/10 (and I know) wins 50% of what you bet
and it costs money to make it.

say \$40 to win \$20
cost = \$1 (5% of the win - upfront at many casinos, not all)

I would stay at your drawing board on this
so
you know the progression will work for this bet.

I would just play it in WinCraps and see how it does (yes I looked)
and it does poorly (the progression that is... with my little example)

sure is fun when the bets get real big!
not fun when the parlay does not cover your total losses

Oh well,
good luck
have fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 4703
March 6th, 2017 at 3:24:22 PM permalink
I'd throw in betting on sporting events you're confident. Two bets might be a week apart.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 1995
March 6th, 2017 at 3:33:25 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

How do they round off the vig on a lay bet for really odd amounts?

some do not allow odd Lay bet amounts,
others adjust to nearest \$1 or 50 cents if they have it.
Never seen or heard of any standard for this.

watched a guy wanting a Lay 5 for \$50 and they kept him happy just telling him after so many bets he owed this much, so I could not figure it out.

I have seen Lay bets for \$100 on 4,6,8 and 10

only seen a few times on the 5,9
as a proper bet would be \$99 to win \$66 for a vig of \$3.30
so it can get messy (kind of, of course)

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
BlueEagle
Joined: Jun 7, 2015