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craps going to lay only 6 and 8
| July 18th, 2010 at 10:59:47 AM permalink | |
| DeMango Member since: Feb 2, 2010 Threads: 11 Posts: 318 | Anything more than 10% of your session bankroll on the table is financial suicide. Change your handle to Ilovegivingmymoneytothecasino. |
| July 18th, 2010 at 12:25:36 PM permalink | |
| goatcabin Member since: Feb 13, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 495 |
Nonsense! The best chance to double your money is to put it all on the pass or don't pass - .493 probability of winning. If you win, you now have twice as much to play with. Playing with a short bankroll, one that, combined with your bet spread, gives you a high "risk of ruin", puts a premium on being lucky early on. Just for fun, I ran two simulations, using a single lay-no-4 bet for $40, $1 vig collected only on wins. The sessions were to last for 60 bet resolutions, or reach a win goal of $600, or bust. I ran 10,000 sessions each, starting with a $200 bankroll or a $400 bankroll. Results:
I used the same seed for both sims. Basically, having a short bankroll is just having a tight loss limit, which many players advocate. Obviously, it prevents you from losing more than $200, in this case. I don't advocate anything except understanding what one's goal(s) is/are and picking a strategy that gives you the best chance of realizing it/them. For me, that means keeping the expected loss low and the variance fairly high, which translates into minimum line bets with whatever odds I feel I can afford. That combination maximizes my probability of winning, by minimizing |ev/SD|. Cheers, Alan Shank |
| July 18th, 2010 at 1:05:55 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4834 | And if you lose that very first roll you have zero opportunity to ever recoup the loss or even approach the plus column. Often, you won't even be able to get a free drink if you are not actively gambling. Its always great to have those first few wagers work out to be winners, but not always likely to happen. I once had a blackjack session wherein I had three Black Jacks in my first four hands and the dealer made some comment to the other players about it. It sure helps stave off the inevitable a while longer. Its the same with the fairly large bets against the six or eight rolling. He is using up quite a chunk of his 200.00. With a more conservative strategy he might get to a position in the plus column wherein he felt that action on his desired Laying of the 6 and 8 was now going to represent a lesser chunk of his bankroll. Mathematically, you are quite correct: One Roll. Win or Lose. Let the House Edge work against you but once! |
| July 18th, 2010 at 3:36:29 PM permalink | |
| DeMango Member since: Feb 2, 2010 Threads: 11 Posts: 318 | Yup math boy, variance don't mean a thing, after all that's all smart people do, go to the casino and bet everything on one roll. As John McEnroe would say, "You can't be serious!" |
| July 18th, 2010 at 6:05:35 PM permalink | |
| goatcabin Member since: Feb 13, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 495 |
If you've read and understood anything that I've posted here over the past few weeks, you'd know that I know that variance means A LOT. In fact, the reason that the best chance of doubling your money is to bet it all on one even-money bet is that the variance is maximized that way. If you bet half your bankroll twice, the expected value is the same, but the variance is less, because it increases only with the square root of the number of decisions. That fact is specifically why the longer you play, the less likely you are to win. Take a gander at my blog "More About Variance". Cheers, Alan Shank |
| July 18th, 2010 at 6:29:21 PM permalink | |
| 7craps Member since: Jan 23, 2010 Threads: 10 Posts: 332 |
The Wizard has said the same thing before, to have the greatest chance at winning, the highest winning percentage is to bet it all on one bet. Of course you and I do not see the fun in that style. We will take our chances on luck and the better bets. But to each his own! Life in the Key of F#...a.crap=(gambling) - (math) b.math=(crap) / (gambling) c.gambling=(crap) / (math) |
| July 18th, 2010 at 6:31:50 PM permalink | |
| 7craps Member since: Jan 23, 2010 Threads: 10 Posts: 332 |
Well written Alan. Slow players like me can understand your examples. Good stuff. You prove many times with math and sims that the math does not lie. Life in the Key of F#...a.crap=(gambling) - (math) b.math=(crap) / (gambling) c.gambling=(crap) / (math) |
| July 18th, 2010 at 11:38:07 PM permalink | |
| DeMango Member since: Feb 2, 2010 Threads: 11 Posts: 318 | Sorry, not good enough. I can't think of one gaming writer, particularly those that favor advantage play, that would reccomend a one bet appearance at the casino. The exception, possibly, of a remote occurance, say a 2:1 blackjack promotion. In this case you would bet a healthy chunk of your bankroll, in accordance with the Kelly criterion. Indeed the math doesn't lie, but a one roll deal is foolish. Take that a step forward. You took the plunge and won, what next? Another plunge, then another? Or take the winnings and go back to "normal" betting. No, the OP presented a case where too much % of bankroll was at stake. The solution is to increase bankroll or cut back the bet, not bet it all in one plunge. |
| July 19th, 2010 at 7:39:10 AM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 100 Posts: 2729 |
What about the guy whose name is at the top of this page? "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
| July 19th, 2010 at 7:45:53 AM permalink | |
| RaleighCraps Member since: Feb 20, 2010 Threads: 29 Posts: 601 |
Every bet you make at the casino has a house edge. The more often you bet, the more often you are destined to lose. It is as simple as that. One bet would be the best option, assuming you can stomach losing it all on 1 play. I wouldn't go this route personally, since I enjoy the time spent playing. But if I had to double my bankroll by noon, or risk having my legs broken by my lender, then I would go for the 1 play double my money. Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, won't matter! |
| Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard. Here are my reasons why and my promise of support. |