daCoops
daCoops
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
February 4th, 2015 at 6:04:16 AM permalink
Hi All - First Thread Post here... I've tried searching for some info on the Bitcoin dice games on this Forum, but found very little other than people plugging various sites and not much mention of any possible strategies.

Nearly all Bitcoin Dice sites work by generating random numbers usually from 0.000 up to 99.999, and then you bet Hi or Lo based on a percentage probability - e.g. Higher than 50.00 or (50%) etc.

House edge is usually 1%, so the payout is easily calculated. e.g. Payout at Hi or Lo 49.5% = 2x

So nothing groundbreaking so far, but since it's bitcoins, it opens up possibility of lots of fractional betting. At moment 1BTC ~ $225, but most dice sites allow for minimal bets of about 0.00000010. Without getting into a Martingale debate, this opens up some interesting possibilities that allow for a smaller bank roll, and relying on huge unlikely losses in a row without busting a huge bank. Also, speed that you can place bets on these sites is very high, some of them around a few hundred per minute.

Changing the percentage outcome also helps in devising strategies. I created a script in R that calculates the highest probability for a given bet and bank roll, and I was surprised to see that if using a 2x martingale strategy sometimes gives better odds when lowering the percentage instead of increasing it.

My questions are though:
  1. If betting at odds > 50% (let say 80 to 95%), I'm expected to have a number of win streaks in a row. Would using something like a partial martingale work more favorably than a simple 2x multiplier approach? i.e. recoup a loss over 3 or 4 bets instead of just 1? I have no idea how I can work out the odds of this, and obviously how to factor in getting a loss within one of those recovery bets etc.
  2. Are there any other betting strategies for games or outcomes that have high probabilities of winning? e.g. Most stuff I read here are for Baccarat or Roulette etc. In this game I can change the odds of winning to higher or lower and alter the payout (albeit with the fixed 1% edge)
  3. Anyone know of R, and can help me with optimize functions and tutorials?
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 3938
February 4th, 2015 at 6:58:01 AM permalink
What is your goal? If your goal is to win money, just stop. Any system with a high probability of winning a small amount of money carries with it the small probability of losing a TON of money. There's no way to "beat" this game, if it is indeed fair.

You can make all kinds of systems to try to increase the probability of coming away a winner, but every bet you place has a house advantage, and that will eventually catch up with you.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 2933
February 4th, 2015 at 7:04:56 AM permalink
Quote: daCoops

So nothing groundbreaking so far, but since it's bitcoins, it opens up possibility of lots of fractional betting. At moment 1BTC ~ $225, but most dice sites allow for minimal bets of about 0.00000010. Without getting into a Martingale debate, this opens up some interesting possibilities that allow for a smaller bank roll, and relying on huge unlikely losses in a row without busting a huge bank.


Sorry, but it doesn't matter how small the bet amount can be; any discussion of "relying on huge unlikely losses in a row" "opens up a Martingale debate" pretty much by definition.
Even if the minimum bet is 1/45 of 1 cent, it only takes a run of 12 losses to increase the bet to $91.

Any strategy where the intent is to "recoup losses" is asking for problems.
daCoops
daCoops
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
February 4th, 2015 at 8:54:21 AM permalink
Point taken - I was just thinking about the possibility of approaching a reasonable profit and cashing out before you approach the huge losses in a row...

All I was trying to find out were strategies that may increase the probability of surviving giving a certain bankroll and percentage win stake on these games.

So.. just so I know, what "strategies" are out there that don't have an intent to recoup losses? I'm guessing there aren't any?
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1988
February 4th, 2015 at 9:00:06 AM permalink
All you got to realize is that you are likelier to go broke before you double up. It's just how long do you want to take to get there.
daCoops
daCoops
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
February 4th, 2015 at 9:06:02 AM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

All you got to realize is that you are likelier to go broke before you double up. It's just how long do you want to take to get there.



Yeah - but surely there is a way of calculating or simulating the tipping point so to speak? Finding the best bank size, best bet size, best stake percentage, best strategy on loss, to give the most optimized profit vs probability outcome?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 2933
February 4th, 2015 at 9:31:02 AM permalink
Quote: daCoops

Point taken - I was just thinking about the possibility of approaching a reasonable profit and cashing out before you approach the huge losses in a row...

All I was trying to find out were strategies that may increase the probability of surviving giving a certain bankroll and percentage win stake on these games.


If you want to "increase the probability of surviving", then make the ratio of "target win amount" to bankroll as small as possible.

As for probabilities, what you are describing sounds like a Gambler's Ruin problem, except that in GR, you never change the amount of your bet.
If each bet has probability p of winning, and we let q = 1-p (i.e. the probability of losing), then the probability of getting to W more wins than losses before getting to L more losses than wins = (1 - (q-p)L) / (1 - (q-p)W+L)
(If p = q = 1/2, the probability is L / (W + L))

Quote: daCoops

So.. just so I know, what "strategies" are out there that don't have an intent to recoup losses? I'm guessing there aren't any?


Here's one: bet the same amount each time.
daCoops
daCoops
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
February 4th, 2015 at 9:40:52 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If you want to "increase the probability of surviving", then make the ratio of "target win amount" to bankroll as small as possible.

As for probabilities, what you are describing sounds like a Gambler's Ruin problem, except that in GR, you never change the amount of your bet.
If each bet has probability p of winning, and we let q = 1-p (i.e. the probability of losing), then the probability of getting to W more wins than losses before getting to L more losses than wins = (1 - (q-p)L) / (1 - (q-p)W+L)
(If p = q = 1/2, the probability is L / (W + L))


Here's one: bet the same amount each time.



Thanks Don - Just started reading the wiki on Gamblers Ruin.... and see what you mean with ratio of target to bankroll...
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 114
  • Posts: 12545
February 4th, 2015 at 10:18:49 AM permalink
Quote: daCoops

Point taken - I was just thinking about the possibility of approaching a reasonable profit and cashing out before you approach the huge losses in a row...
?

How do you know when this will happen? You might lose 30 in a row the very first time you play it.

This has been discussed here, and just about any and everyone who plays sites like this know about Marty, if it was a winning system the place would be broke.

Go look at the stats, it might show you the longest streak it has ever had.

I have looked at sites like this (probably the same one) I seen some incredible amounts of money being wagered. I'm always wondering if that's total BS and just fake shills trying to encourage suckers.

Perhaps its all the millionaire BC minors who mined them from day one.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Double gamble factor. Something to think about since your system is -EV already.

Lets say you bought your bit coins a few days ago @ $231 and you played your system. Today if you decided to cash out you automatically lose $6. On the flip side you could cash and sell above 232 and profit.

And there is stuff like this(I just took the scary parts)...... Patrick Howell O'Neil "The entire affair has left numerous investors and observers feeling dizzy and, often, suspicious. By Friday, several investors tried to cut their losses by divesting their money and walking away. However, Just-Dice came under DDoS attack for several minutes, according to numerous witnesses, making it impossible for them to withdraw their money"

"Is he a Just-Dice employee essentially stealing money from investors?"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I believe Just dice shut down and reopened (not sure exactly what happened )

Dice.Ninja Scam. (see Bitcointalk thread)
Dicebitco.in Shut down. Scam. (see Bitcointalk thread)
Just-Dice Roll the Dice or Be the House | Highest Max Bets - win over 500 BTC per roll | Provably Fair | 1% House Edge | Very Fast Betting | Set your own odds | Active on-site chat
CoinBet Bitcoin Casino, Sportsbook, Poker, and more with the most responsive customer service, as well as multiple payment, deposit, and withdraw methods. Instant Deposit. Instant Play. -- No longer available as of 4/6/2014.
Bets of Bitcoin -- No longer available.
betbybitcoin You can open your bets anonymously, Get big fees. -- No longer available.
Betcoiner -- Owner gone, events aren't settling. (see Bitcointalk thread)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There may be some BC casino bonuses you can take advantage of. I suggest looking for them so you at least have an advantage from the beginning.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
  • Threads: 648
  • Posts: 7891
February 4th, 2015 at 12:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

And there is stuff like this(I just took the scary parts)...... Patrick Howell O'Neil "The entire affair has left numerous investors and observers feeling dizzy and, often, suspicious. By Friday, several investors tried to cut their losses by divesting their money and walking away. However, Just-Dice came under DDoS attack for several minutes, according to numerous witnesses, making it impossible for them to withdraw their money"

"Is he a Just-Dice employee essentially stealing money from investors?"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I believe Just dice shut down and reopened (not sure exactly what happened )



I talked a lot with the owner of Just Dice and we worked on a paper together.

He had one player who won 30 times in a row. The expected number of trials to win 30 times in a row is 1.2 billion. The probability of winning the Powerball is only 175 million to one (or lower by 1/7). Presumably the player had programmed a bot to use Martingale, and the minimum bet was placed every time and the winnings were less than a nickel.

When he had the idea to create Just-Dice he explained to everyone that he struggled to find a way to design the game so that he could assure people that he wasn't cheating and simply stealing the profits. He finally threw in the towel, and started the game and told people flat out that there was no way of knowing if he was cheating or not. He simply said that if they wanted to play they had to trust him. No assurances other than his word were offered.

Surprisingly hundreds of people invested anyway. They players even encouraged him to increase his management fee .

Of course, a few weeks after the website opened, a whale came and wiped out all the earnings. Since it was only his word, some people assumed he was masquerading as a whale and stealing. But the game survived until the whale got bored and ran until the Canadian government changed the law regarding bitcoins. The owner closed the game rather than try and comply with the reporting requirements now required by the government.

  • Jump to: