Utilizing Dealer Mistakes for Positive Expectation

Skirting the ethical issue completely, and returning to the original question:

I do believe it is possible to quantify the benefit of knowing that the dealer will return your working odds to you with probability p on the comeout roll.

Using Markov-style analysis (or just lifting the numbers from someone who has already done the calculations), you can calculate the long term steady state probabilities of having 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 different come out bets working when there is a come out roll. You can also use the # of comeout rolls per hour to estimate how many times per hour you will be in this situation. Knowing that your odds will be returned to you with probability p, you have a advantage on each comeout roll in terms of p and the # of working come bets.

You can then calculate your overall (dis)advantage over all bets in an hour (most of the time the puck will be ON, and you will be at a disadvantage, but in each come out roll, you will have advantage. Take the steady state probabilities of being in these situations x the expectation of each situation). Then compare that to the cost of tipping. For your tipping level and bet size, there will be some breakeven point where you will be making money if p is large enough.

I also reject the waiter analogy. Waiters, and sales people, often have some latitude on rewarding good and/or frequent customers. Also in small places they're often related to the owner, or are part-owners of the joint.

Dealers, on the other hand, are subject to strict rules and have little or no discretion.

im speaking of dealers making errors unintentionally on which you benefit. if you suspect a dealer is intentionally making errors in your favor, dont link the event of tipping him and getting paid out together or it could be considered colluding against the casino. wait a few hands and then tip him. if he stops making errors in your favor, dont tip him. if he was intentionally making mistakes in your favor, this is a more subtle way of saying "i know". if you believe it was intentional but you later come to the conclusion it was really unintentional, go back to your normal tipping habit.

I don't think the Wizard has any qualms about using dealer error to the player's advantage.

This is, after all, the foundation of his 3-Card Poker play.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I, myself, would be quite interested to hear more of Odiousgambit's unscrupulous, "how to", ideas...

Quote: justbrent

The waiter/dessert analogy is false. When a waiter gives you a free dessert and doesn't charge you, typically one of two things is happening. Either the waiter has gotten approval from the manager or the waiter is willing to pay the cost out of his or her own pocket to show gratitude for your regular patronage. Either way, you are not participating or benefitting from dishonesty.

Actually, in the case I was referencing, there is dishonesty going on. The waitress in question is deliberately not getting approval from the manager, and is not herself paying for the dessert. Because it is a small place, she knows that the dessert can "disappear" and nobody will really know where it goes, and further, that nobody is really going to ask or care. On the off chance that someone does remember that "so-and-so" took a piece of pie and delivered it to a customer, she can always then state that yes, and she simply forgot, but she bought the pie for a customer, and then pay for it. However, it's clear that her intention is to NOT pay for, unless she gets caught.

Quote: justbrent

If a dealer is frequently giving you an advantage that is not allowed by the rules, he or she is stealing from the casino, and you are benefitting.

I was talking to a PaiGow Poker dealer this past weekend at the Orleans who related a story about a time when he was dealing, and police officers came in, with security and management. They walked over to another PaiGow Poker dealer, made him stand up, cuffed him, and escorted him out of the casino. It turned out that he was in collusion with one of the players. Basically, if the player was supposed to have lost, he pushed, and if he was supposed to have pushed, he won. Obviously, the casino caught on, and the dealer was arrested and charged. According to the dealer relating the story, the player was NOT charged with anything, but was asked to leave the casino, and not return there, or to any of their sister properties.

When I worked for a major university, I taught classes to managers on how to detect employee theft. One of the main things I always stressed to people was patterns. The vast majority of small-time (and sometimes big-time) embezzlers get caught because of repeated actions on their parts. People who take $20 out of a cash register every day. People who pay a fake employee $100 each week, etc, etc. These people do not benefit from $20 a day, but they figure if they get $20 a day for a week, they'll have $400. The problem is that this pattern is eventually caught. Not always right away, but eventually.

If any dealer was paying out wrong or incorrectly on a CONSISTENT basis, this is just screaming that something is going to happen and people are going to get caught. I would not want to be in that situation at all, because I know that guilt by collusion is going to get pointed at me. But when it happens once in a while, I don't necessarily feel the need to say anything. PaiGow dealer set hands wrong, and craps dealers make errors in favor of patrons.

Someone else (sorry, I don't remember who) said that since my tipping behavior is not going to change, then my expected loss isn't going to change, and that made a lot of sense to me. I still do wonder if the kind of errors that occur, assuming you're not tipping, and you only tip when the error occurs, can end up resulting in a positive expectation, even after taking into account the tipping. But, I understand it's a moot point.

Quote: justbrent

I have to wonder how often this kind of thing could really occur. My understanding is that casino surveillance is pretty robust, and it's even more intense with regard to dealers than patrons.

I'm a bit curious about this as well. I have played PaiGow Poker and have had the pit boss receive a call and then come to the PaiGow Poker table, back up all the cards, and verify that someone had a flush, because somebody in security didn't see the flush and thought the payout was wrong. On the other hand, I've seen errors happen at the craps table that don't get caught, such as a person buying in with $20 at the same time as another person buying in with $100, and both people get $100. So, can anybody definitely answer if the surveillance at craps table is less than at other tables? My thoughts are that maybe because there is a lot more action going on, that not everything can get caught. Also because there are basically 4 employees, with a potential pit boss as well watching things, that surveillance figures it's under control.

Although they're not frequent, because my bets are usually consistent, I will always quietly point out a dealer error that goes against me.

Errors in my favor are a little trickier because sometimes especially after a few drinks, the math in my head doesn't get completed until I'm putting the chips in the rack, and the table's moving on. Probably the one I've seen most frequently should be the most obvious - I have place bets that I've asked to be "on" on the come out roll, and either the dealer didn't put the "on" button in place, and he doesn't take it away on a seven, or he has the "on" button in place, but just plain fails to take the losing bet on come out seven.

I'm hesitant to point out those situations, not only because it's in my favor, but I'd think in the eyes of the casino it's a much worse sin to fail to collect a losing bet than it is to get called by a player for mispaying a winning bet.

Quote: konceptum

I have played PaiGow Poker and have had the pit boss receive a call and then come to the PaiGow Poker table, back up all the cards, and verify that someone had a flush, because somebody in security didn't see the flush and thought the payout was wrong.

I'm surprised that they didn't go to the video. I was under the impression that EVERY camera has a recorder attached to it. Oh, sure, not every square inch of the casino is covered by a camera, but the only way Surveillance would have seen is would be on a camera....

Quote: konceptum

My thoughts are that maybe because there is a lot more action going on, that not everything can get caught. Also because there are basically 4 employees, with a potential pit boss as well watching things, that surveillance figures it's under control.

That's got nothing to do with it. It's because craps is the only game were an audible counts. Therefore, it's a simple thing for a dealer to claim that the player requested something that was not the case. How can Surveillance fight "I thought I heard..."?

heres a simple one.

if youre playing a doubledeck blackjack game where hands are dealt facedown, youre supposed to turn your hand faceup if you bust. make a habit out of doing this when its obvious you bust.

now if you happen to get a 3 to 5 card 22, instead tuck your hand confidently under your wager. its likely the dealer may misread your hand as 21 and pay you accordingly. its even more likely getting paid on it if dealer also busts. three card hands you have to be a little more cautious with, something like TT2, obviously turn faceup. but if its something like 679 or 589, you can try tucking your hand.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

That's got nothing to do with it. It's because craps is the only game were an audible counts. Therefore, it's a simple thing for a dealer to claim that the player requested something that was not the case. How can Surveillance fight "I thought I heard..."?

That makes a lot of sense. Now we just need to figure out an audible call that sounds vague enough that we can claim it was something that actually won. :)

Quote: sevenshooter

I don't know about the rest of you, but I, myself, would be quite interested to hear more of Odiousgambit's unscrupulous, "how to", ideas...

Well, I don't know that we need to turn ourselves into a Cheater's Symposium here. I guess I will not go into details; as the Wizard says often, he doesn't condone cheating, neither do I [in spite of my user name]. But at the same time I can hardly believe no one else has mentioned this, so without those details, I have just found that it is possible in certain circumstances to pick up your line bet once you go to having a point to make. Like I say, did this by accident once and realized, circumstances being very important, there was little chance of being observed, and if observed, you would just expect to be told to put it back [time to make a note to self, no more of that].

I have made myself resist doing this on purpose. I have been tempted when losing, for one thing there is less scrutiny for someone losing. Not being a Saint, I can't quite shake the idea of doing it, but so far temptation has not won out.