cant find a way to disprove this craps system
step 1 Bet 10 on pass ( roll dice, repeat bet if lost or won)
step 2 Bet 20 on don't come (roll dice, repeat step 2 if 11, 12 ,2 or 3 is rolled, repeat step 1 if 7 is rolled repeat step 1 THEN skip to step 3 if point is rolled)
step 3 Bet 10 on pass odds (50/50 chance of losing point vs don't come but pays more if you win) nothing happens on 7) if don't come losses just let it play if pass line wins go to step 1 then skip to step 3, if 7 is rolled go to step 1.
my simulation of 36 rolls
step 1 12 rolls are 7 11 2 3 or 12 for a total player gain of $40
step 2 (24 remaining rolls) 4 would be a 7 for a loss of 30 per roll. 1.33 would be an 11 for a $20 loss per roll and 2 would ne a 2 or 3 for a $20 gain per roll and 2.66 of the time would make the point for a 10 gain per roll total in step 2 is -$79.94 ( but that 2.66 of making the point makes some money again in step 1 an extra $4.42 making the new total -$75.52 for step 2 because you reroll a 12 im using that to addthe average of step 2 so a negative loss of 3.16 making the new total -$78.68
step 3 of the 16.66 remaining rolls 4.165 will be a 4 or 10. will make $13.88 off of those rolls. 5.55 will be a 5 or a 9 will make $11.1 from those and 6.945 will be a 6 or 8 will make 6.31 from those a total of $27.14
adding steps 1 2 and 3 gets a total of $8.38 loss I FOUND THE ERROR
Quote: theredcoreI did the math on this a million times and every time I get something like in 36 rolls you come ahead by $10.83 would be nice to get more imput
Are you using gr8player/varmenti math??
Quote: theredcorebesides the basic betting systems don't work. I just cant find how this one doesn't.
step 1 Bet 10 on pass ( roll dice, repeat bet if lost or won)
step 2 Bet 20 on don't come (roll dice, repeat step 2 if 11, 12 ,2 or 3 is rolled, repeat step 1 if 7 is rolled repeat step 1 THEN skip to step 3 if point is rolled)
step 3 Bet 10 on pass odds (50/50 chance of losing point vs don't come but pays more if you win) nothing happens on 7) if don't come losses just let it play if pass line wins go to step 1 then skip to step 3, if 7 is rolled go to step 1.
I did the math on this a million times and every time I get something like in 36 rolls you come ahead by $10.83 would be nice to get more input
This would take forever to do the Math for every possible scenario, since you did the Math 1,000,000 times, why don't you show me the Math you did one time and I'll tell you what's wrong with it.
Here are a few of the more obvious reasons it would fail:
1.) CO losers from Step 1.
2.) PSO's, which lose on both Steps 1 and 2.
3.) Yo's on Step 2.
4.) The fact that Step 1 and Step 2 have exactly nothing to do with one another.
A.) If Step 2 resolves with a 2, 3, 7 or 11, then absolutely nothing happens with Step 1.
B.) If Step 2 results in the same number as Step 1, Step 1 pays (without Odds) and the DC moves to the number.
C.) If Step 2 results in a different Point number than Step 1, then the DC moves to that number and you Take Odds that have nothing to do with the DC. For example, if Step 2 results in a six and Step 1 was an eight, then you Take $10 Odds on the eight, but a six and then a seven could roll and you lose both bets.
5.) Step 3 has exactly nothing to do with the DC bet, or any Point established by the DC bet.
6.) How do PL Odds have a 50/50 chance of losing the point number? It'd be Even Money if it were 50/50, they pay more than Even Money, Odds bets pay at true Odds, which is why they are called Odds bets, because they pay more than Even Money, you know the prob. success is less than 50/50.
Conclusion
I guess I will credit you for at least sticking to the lowest edge bets, and getting some of the money out there in Odds, but there is absolutely no reason to believe your system will succeed in the long-term. Step 3 should immediately follow Step 1 if you are going to Take Odds at all (or just do Step 2 and Stp 3 at the same time) and Step 2 really has no correlation to Steps 1 or 3.
Betting Systems usually involve some sort of adjustment to amounts bet, or some sort of hedging, so seeing a betting system that involves bets that are in no way correlated is pretty bizarre, but again, at least you're sticking to those low edge bets.
The Come Out roll is not the only roll, if it were, the player would have a huge advantage.
That was a quick conversation.
On to Step 2:
What the Hell are you talking about?
This is what can happen with a $20 DC bet
CO Winner: (3/36 * 20) = 1.666
CO Loser: -(8/36 * 20) = -4.444
Point Four or Ten, Missed: (3/36 * 6/9 * 20) = 1.111 * 2 = 2.222
Point Four or Ten, Made: -(3/36 * 3/9 * 20) = 0.555 * 2 = -1.111
Point Five or Nine, Missed: (4/36 * 6/10 * 20) = 1.333 * 2 = 2.666
Point Five or Nine, Made: -(4/36 * 4/10 * 20) = -0.889 * 2 = -1.778
Point Six or Eight, Missed: (5/36 * 6/11 * 20) = 1.515 * 2 = 3.03
Point Six or Eight, Made: -(5/36 * 5/11 * 20) = -1.2626 * 2 = -2.525
1.666 - 4.444 + 2.222 - 1.111 + 2.666 - 1.778 + 3.03 -2.525 = -0.274
-(20 * .0136) = -0.272 (Errors due to rounding)
Expected loss of 27.2 cents per $20 bet.
Step 3:
What are, "Remaining rolls?"
Step 3 is correlated to Step 1 in that Step 1 must establish a point for you to Take Odds on the point. Step 2 has nothing to do with Step 1 or Step 3.
I mean, you're making the best bets in terms of Expected Value, though it remains a negative expectation game, so that's good. Stick with that, but the, "Math," you added to the OP...and I honestly mean you no offense...is so convoluted that to try to find where you went wrong is nearly hopeless.
Don't worry, though, I've bitten off more than I can chew trying to figure out a good many things on here and have been corrected by those brighter at gambling math than I am.
Quote: Mission146This would take forever to do the Math for every possible scenario, since you did the Math 1,000,000 times, why don't you show me the Math you did one time and I'll tell you what's wrong with it.
Here are a few of the more obvious reasons it would fail:
1.) CO losers from Step 1.
2.) PSO's, which lose on both Steps 1 and 2.
3.) Yo's on Step 2.
4.) The fact that Step 1 and Step 2 have exactly nothing to do with one another.
A.) If Step 2 resolves with a 2, 3, 7 or 11, then absolutely nothing happens with Step 1.
B.) If Step 2 results in the same number as Step 1, Step 1 pays (without Odds) and the DC moves to the number.
C.) If Step 2 results in a different Point number than Step 1, then the DC moves to that number and you Take Odds that have nothing to do with the DC. For example, if Step 2 results in a six and Step 1 was an eight, then you Take $10 Odds on the eight, but a six and then a seven could roll and you lose both bets.
5.) Step 3 has exactly nothing to do with the DC bet, or any Point established by the DC bet.
6.) How do PL Odds have a 50/50 chance of losing the point number? It'd be Even Money if it were 50/50, they pay more than Even Money, Odds bets pay at true Odds, which is why they are called Odds bets, because they pay more than Even Money, you know the prob. success is less than 50/50.
Conclusion
I guess I will credit you for at least sticking to the lowest edge bets, and getting some of the money out there in Odds, but there is absolutely no reason to believe your system will succeed in the long-term. Step 3 should immediately follow Step 1 if you are going to Take Odds at all (or just do Step 2 and Stp 3 at the same time) and Step 2 really has no correlation to Steps 1 or 3.
Betting Systems usually involve some sort of adjustment to amounts bet, or some sort of hedging, so seeing a betting system that involves bets that are in no way correlated is pretty bizarre, but again, at least you're sticking to those low edge bets.
with what you said in 1-3 was covered in guide
4, they set up for step 3 4b) also in guide good thing to take $10 and skip step 2 entirely
4c, same thing can happen roll the point then roll a 7 to win both same % too
5. step 3 was just 7 protection and a 50/50 gamble of hitting the odds that pay more before the don't come will lose
6. I wasn't meaning 50/50 as in odds of them coming before a 7. I was meaning 50/50 as in 50% your don't come will lose and 50% your passline bet will win. except the passline pays more
Quote: Mission146Okay, let's talk about Step 1:
The Come Out roll is not the only roll, if it were, the player would have a huge advantage.
That was a quick conversation.
On to Step 2:
What the Hell are you talking about?
This is what can happen with a $20 DC bet
CO Winner: (3/36 * 20) = 1.666
CO Loser: -(8/36 * 20) = -4.444
Point Four or Ten, Missed: (3/36 * 6/9 * 20) = 1.111 * 2 = 2.222
Point Four or Ten, Made: -(3/36 * 3/9 * 20) = 0.555 * 2 = -1.111
Point Five or Nine, Missed: (4/36 * 6/10 * 20) = 1.333 * 2 = 2.666
Point Five or Nine, Made: -(4/36 * 4/10 * 20) = -0.889 * 2 = -1.778
Point Six or Eight, Missed: (5/36 * 6/11 * 20) = 1.515 * 2 = 3.03
Point Six or Eight, Made: -(5/36 * 5/11 * 20) = -1.2626 * 2 = -2.525
1.666 - 4.444 + 2.222 - 1.111 + 2.666 - 1.778 + 3.03 -2.525 = -0.274
-(20 * .0136) = -0.272 (Errors due to rounding)
Expected loss of 27.2 cents per $20 bet.
Step 3:
What are, "Remaining rolls?"
Step 3 is correlated to Step 1 in that Step 1 must establish a point for you to Take Odds on the point. Step 2 has nothing to do with Step 1 or Step 3.
I mean, you're making the best bets in terms of Expected Value, though it remains a negative expectation game, so that's good. Stick with that, but the, "Math," you added to the OP...and I honestly mean you no offense...is so convoluted that to try to find where you went wrong is nearly hopeless.
Don't worry, though, I've bitten off more than I can chew trying to figure out a good many things on here and have been corrected by those brighter at gambling math than I am.
I think the difference is I just ran for 36 rolls TOTAL( just not counting dud rolls in step 3) by 24 remaining rolls in step 2 I was implying a third of the 36 (12) were a 2,3,7,11,12. step 1 was simply the first roll the comeout roll
