Betting System Challenge

June 19th, 2012 at 10:42:54 PM permalink
tupp
Member since: Feb 9, 2012
Threads: 3
Posts: 518
Quote: JyBrd0403
D'alembert the Martingale 60% progression.

Or, you could Labouchere the Fibonacci.
June 19th, 2012 at 11:01:20 PM permalink
JyBrd0403
Member since: Jan 25, 2010
Threads: 8
Posts: 419
Quote: tupp
Or, you could Labouchere the Fibonacci.


LOL. Thanks, tupp. Couldn't just let the novelty game win outright.
June 20th, 2012 at 12:08:23 PM permalink
JyBrd0403
Member since: Jan 25, 2010
Threads: 8
Posts: 419
Somehow, I knew there wasn't going to be much interest in a betting system that can beat an HE game on this forum. There's another thread where a simulation showed the D'Alembert wins outright against a 50/50 game of chance, and I don't remember any kind of math being done on that, at all. Does the D'Alembert even work on a 50/50 game, mathematically?

Since, the term outright seems to be a mystery here. I'll give you a scenario.

"I had a nickel (That's five hundred dollars) on a pony (a horse) to show in the 5th (this means the 5th race). The damn thing won outright. (Means the horse won the race. This is also a funny joke. You laugh here. He's upset he didn't bet the horse to win)." They probably had the damn thing juiced up (means they gave the horse an illegal substance to make it run faster, also a funny joke, you laugh here). I should have dropped a dime(should have bet one thousand dollars) on her (does not indicate the sex of the horse, horses are commonly referred to as female). (this is also a funny sentence, you laugh here)."

Funny way of talking gamblers have isn't it. You see a lot of it on this forum.
June 20th, 2012 at 12:22:34 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Mar 11, 2010
Threads: 79
Posts: 5890
Quote: JyBrd0403
Somehow, I knew there wasn't going to be much interest in a betting system that can beat an HE game on this forum.


It can't beat the HE. You haven't done anything to change the HE, so you don't beat the HE. It's a constant.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 20th, 2012 at 12:30:45 PM permalink
mustangsally
Member since: Mar 29, 2011
Threads: 11
Posts: 1111
Quote: JyBrd0403
Somehow, I knew there wasn't going to be much interest in a betting system that can beat an HE game on this forum.
HeHe.
That is because you have shown no proof.

No math.
All you have to do is calculate the average bet for a progression from 1 unit up and back down to 1 unit.
Then you will have your EV.

You have shown No computer simulations.
(A few have shown, by simulations, this to be impracticable to be used in a real casino)
You say you can't do the math.

Then do a simulation.
There are Roulette online simulators. But can they be trusted.
You were told of Roulette Xtreme software, I have it BTW, that is only $30 and it can be programmed by any 10 year old. Even me and I am old at 22.

You will find out that your system does not win outright in single 0 roulette.
Once in the positive it will be there only for a short while. Then into the negative to never return to the positive.

I have found it works way better in Craps with and without odds on the line bets.
Wake up and do the work yourself.
That way, you can trust yourself and no one else.

A true 50/50 bet, with a house edge of 0% looks like this over many trials.
Going back and forth across the zero time line.


Your method, and your variants, that can easily be simulated in Excel also has a house edge on every win and loss.

Here is a graph showing the average of 10,000 sessions playing your first method with an unlimited bankroll. Total casino credit.
Does not look to me you will ever get back into the black. Downhill slide all the way.


You can and should learn to do all the work yourself.
That would make you a hero!

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 20th, 2012 at 12:35:08 PM permalink
buzzpaff
Member since: Mar 8, 2011
Threads: 112
Posts: 5328
I have a horse tomorrow going off at 20 to 1. Since the race doesn't start till 3:15 I think he is a lock to win !
June 20th, 2012 at 12:40:13 PM permalink
guido111
Member since: Sep 16, 2010
Threads: 10
Posts: 707
Quote: JyBrd0403
15% of the winnings sound about right? or, is that too high?
I say it is just right.
But you should pay at least 85% of the losses too. What, you want NO risk!

As a matter of fact, send me $10,000 and I will pay you 50% over any winnings of $5,000.
I will play just as you have outlined in this tread and will offer the Wizard also 50% of the winnings to watch and record the spins and wagers.

Then a big dinner to celebrate after.

Enjoy!
June 20th, 2012 at 12:43:24 PM permalink
JyBrd0403
Member since: Jan 25, 2010
Threads: 8
Posts: 419
Quote: mustangsally

You will find out that your system does not win outright in single 0 roulette.
Once in the positive it will be there only for a short while. Then into the negative to never return to the positive.

I have found it works way better in Craps with and without odds on the line bets.
Wake up and do the work yourself.
That way, you can trust yourself and no one else.

Your method, and your variants, that can easily be simulated in Excel also has a house edge on every win and loss.

Here is a graph showing the average of 10,000 sessions playing your first method with an unlimited bankroll. Total casino credit.
Does not look to me you will ever get back into the black. Downhill slide all the way.




That's not for the D'Alemberting of the Martingal, right?. That wins outright. That's for the 50% trinket I threw out there, right? Just trying to show how to keep the bankroll down. Did you figure out what needs to be changed to make it win?

So, that means there is math showing the D'alembert wins outright on a 50/50 game?
June 20th, 2012 at 12:50:24 PM permalink
mustangsally
Member since: Mar 29, 2011
Threads: 11
Posts: 1111
Quote: JyBrd0403

That's not for the D'Alemberting of the Martingal, right?. That wins outright. That's for the 50% trinket I threw out there, right? Just trying to show how to keep the bankroll down. Did you figure out what needs to be changed to make it win?

So, that means there is math showing the D'alembert wins outright on a 50/50 game?
Exactly as you instructions say.
UP 2X on a loss, and after a win 0.5 times on a win and same bet with a 0 spin.

I used unlimited casino credit, meaning NO bankroll was required.
Some bets and losses were so astronomical large that could never be made in a casino BTW.

You have NO PROOF your method wins outright.

It does not and never will according to those who have shown some results.

Time for you to show the proof.

We are all waiting and can wait a long time.

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
June 20th, 2012 at 12:52:25 PM permalink
mustangsally
Member since: Mar 29, 2011
Threads: 11
Posts: 1111
Quote: JyBrd0403

So, that means there is math showing the D'alembert wins outright on a 50/50 game?


SN Ethier in his Doctrine of Chances book, Betting System chapter,
shows the math and proofs for 6 different popular betting systems.

From page 295

"If we also assume unlimited credit and no house limit (as is not typical),
the martingale, Fibonacci, and Labouchere systems are infallible, while
the other three systems are not" (Oscar, d’Alembert, Blundell)

I say the math does not lie and Mr. Ethier's math speaks for itself.

infallible = wins outright
I Heart Vi Hart